fubario Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, AbbyJr said: It's possible but there have been many La Niña events that did not feature an arctic outbreak in the PNW. Yes, but context is everything. These blocky type regimes come in clusters of years. Sometimes many consecutive years. Besides that strong Nino to Nina transitions have a very good history. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty much always the case by February! I think February is going to end up warm in the overall this year... all of spring actually. I respectfully hope this does not happen, but I agree. Except for February. That month has some voodoo wizard magic keeping it chilly, and I suspect that it will end up quite similar to this last January, with a mid-month cool spell pulling in clutch for a -0.5F to -2F anomaly. The Euro and the Canadian are trigger happy for a sneaky backdoor event early-mid month in a similar fashion to how Phil described things would have to go to make it work. Roided -NAO, brief migration/retrogression of that -NAO into AK with a fleeting -PNA high squeezing some paltry pseudo-Arctic air into SW BC and the interior west... Enough to cool things off and make it interesting. 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willamette Weenie Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 I'm a self diagnosed weenie here... but I'll happily take a nice snowfall in Feb... no ice, just real snow. Give me... hmmm, I dont know, 4" of powder sounds good. Thats enough to really get out there and have some fun without significant long term travel impacts. THEN we can transition to spring. I don't think it's too much to ask. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 7 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: I don't think those extreme totals are actually that unusual for Vancouver Island. For example Tofino, on the west coast, averages 50 cm (almost 20") of rain in January. The euro is showing 15-20" for those locations which is certainly wet and would cause some flooding, but I don't think it would be apocalyptic. Some of the mountains on Vancouver Island pick up more than 500" of rain a year including more than 80" a month during their wettest months so once again while 30" is wet it's not unheard of. Now those totals with a snowpack in the coast range north of Vancouver could cause larger problems, but I'm less familiar with how atmospheric rivers impact that area. Also the GEM always significantly overdoes precipitation so I would not take any totals it spits out at face value. Yeah, I know the absolute amount falling over the 10 day period isn't all that unusual, but the time period it falls in is. If 20-30" fell within a 2-3 day period, that would be pretty gnarly and would definitely cause some major flooding regardless. The bigger risk would probably actually be for more inland parts of the BC mainland though, which tends to get railed pretty good by atmospheric rivers like this since it's the one setup where they don't get rain shadowed super heavily as the precip blasts in from the SW. The threshold for what causes flooding there is way lower. Anyway, didn't mean to make it seem like I thought this is going to be a thousand year flood that wipes BC off the map. Just that right now the models are a bit concerning is all. There's *potential* for something significant, but it's far from world ending and far from a certainty. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: I respectfully hope this does not happen, but I agree. Except for February. That month has some voodoo wizard magic keeping it chilly, and I suspect that it will end up quite similar to this last January, with a mid-month cool spell pulling in clutch for a -0.5F to -2F anomaly. The Euro and the Canadian are trigger happy for a sneaky backdoor event early-mid month in a similar fashion to how Phil described things would have to go to make it work. Roided -NAO, brief migration/retrogression of that -NAO into AK with a fleeting -PNA high squeezing some paltry pseudo-Arctic air into SW BC and the interior west... Enough to cool things off and make it interesting. No doubt the signal is strong for cold in early Feb. Snow is looking more likely too. The 12z EPS doubled vs the 0z to over an inch for SEA. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Ahh, nice to see the Euro Ensembles finally showing some snow potential in Februa- HEY WAIT A MINUTE 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 33 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux? My wife’s 2014 Subaru Outback. Would come with two brand new headlights! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No doubt the signal is strong for cold in early Feb. Snow is looking more likely too. The 12z EPS doubled vs the 0z to over an inch for SEA. i think cool but not cold... and snow is not real likely. This a Nino-like set up with the focus of the cold air into the SW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: My wife’s 2014 Subaru Outback. Would come with two brand new headlights! Changing the headlights on this car is a miserable task. 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: i think cool but not cold... and snow is not real likely. This a Nino-like set up with the focus of the cold air into the SW. Looks cold enough for snow IMBY 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 18z looks juicy after 2/01 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 3 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I would do the same to not have any day with a high below 65 in the summer. Might even pay double that amount to have every day between 75-82. Didn’t you live in San Diego where that’s more or less climo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Conflicting reports! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 18z GFS is a definite move towards the Euro/CMC camp D8+ 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Changing the headlights on this car is a miserable task. Truly is! However I am getting quicker and more efficient with it now that I have done it a few times. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 GraphCast is looking pretty nice at hr 240, so this is as good as LOCKED IN. (1v1 me, h8rs) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Chilly 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 What is with these stupid temperatures today? Some places are in the mid 50s with normal 850s. Thankfully I have just a tiny bit of east wind here keeping the warm air to the west. 49/40 for the day s far. I guess the only to say about the final average temps for the month is at least they will be lower than most recent Januaries. 1 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Now that's what I call a step in the right direction. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 The models are in good agreement that we shut off the Pacific influence for a while in Feb. Should be a nice period of cold mins and maxes just a bit below normal. Looks pretty solid on the cool side. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 The theory that our January streak ending means the same for February is about to get a semi-serious test! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The models are in good agreement that we shut off the Pacific influence for a while in Feb. Should be a nice period of cold mins and maxes just a bit below normal. Looks pretty solid on the cool side. But I was told there would be a raging STJ with tons of rain down this way headed into Feb? Lol I knew it wasn't going to rain and I am looking forward to a colder pattern. At least Heavenly can fire up the snow guns again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 I’m sure Phil will be with us shortly to set everyone straight once he is done on the roof installing his new anemometer. 2 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Pouring rain right now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Just heard a bunch of rumbles or thunder, pouring like crazy right now 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Pouring rain right now Looks like some lightning now in your area. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Some intense thunderstorms coming through looks like some rotation in them too 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 I just noticed a storm coming my way. Looks like it's intensifying too 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 That was crazy intense, suddenly a ton of water on the roads after that downpour. Didn't see any lightning but I did hear a couple rumbles of thunder and it looks like some lightning strikes really close by. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m sure Phil will be with us shortly to set everyone straight once he is done on the roof installing his new anemometer. owowowowowowww!!!!!! i hate this gif!! 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 High of 57 in Corvallis with sunshine. Doesn’t feel like winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: High of 57 in Corvallis with sunshine. Doesn’t feel like winter. its not anymore 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, T-Town said: Didn’t you live in San Diego where that’s more or less climo? Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here. Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno. Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape. There it's just the ocean and generally brown. I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round. Some variety is nice. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here. Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno. Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape. There it's just the ocean and generally brown. I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round. Some variety is nice. the June Gloom, had in Santa Cruz and in Long Beach, many a summer day in Santa Cruz in the 50s/low 60s with fog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here. Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno. Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape. There it's just the ocean and generally brown. I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round. Some variety is nice. Yeah I’ve been there for conferences a few times and it definitely cools off fast in the evenings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: the June Gloom, had in Santa Cruz and in Long Beach, many a summer day in Santa Cruz in the 50s/low 60s with fog The one time I was in Santa Cruz was in mid October and it was sunny and 80 degrees. Pretty nice. We had lunch at a place by the pier and two homeless guys got in a fistfight while we were eating. Good memories. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, T-Town said: The one time I was in Santa Cruz was in mid October and it was sunny and 80 degrees. Pretty nice. We had lunch at a place by the pier and two homeless guys got in a fistfight while we were eating. Good memories. September and October are the best months along the central CA coast. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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