February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Black Hole]

At least the next 10 days if not longer look boring down here...but at least models still looking good for some action in March. Maybe we can get a severe season this year 

[Madtown]

56 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Looks like a good time to get in some Devil's Head Thursday. There's an advisory in Portage/Baraboo for 3-5. Probably going to be wet and heavy but I'll gladly take that over slush. Looks like it just barely ended up going north of me.

I'd head out by Tom...this spring...skiing mixed with spring training!

[gimmesnow]

6 minutes ago, Madtown said:

I head out by Tom...this spring...skiing mixed with spring training!

Think I'm gonna head out west too. Just need to miss spring break because it gets busy.

[hawkstwelve]

We've gone from a 3-5 inch snowfall tonight and again tomorrow night to only 1-2 inches both nights. As expected, higher totals up near Brookings where there is a WSW in effect for 4-8 inches. WWA in effect just one county to my north for 2-5 inches.

So close yet so far. I guess I'll take whatever I can get, especially considering it looks to turn quite boring again for the foreseeable future.

[Up_north_MI]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

Think I'm gonna head out west too. Just need to miss spring break because it gets busy.

A group of us were out snowmobiling in West Yellowstone last week on our annual out west ride. We chose West Yellowstone because we hadn’t been there in a few years and it’s a great place to snowmobile most winters. This year they like most places are down on snow unfortunately but we still managed to have a good trip. Big Sky only had like 25% of their runs open which is pretty crazy for February. We used the same guide we’ve used in the past out there because he specializes in strictly off trail riding and he was able to get us in some good 50” plus snow depths higher up around 9000’ and higher. Bottom line is I’m not sure I would spend the money to go out west and try to play in the snow at least in the areas we were at in ID, MT and WY this year. We usually spend a day in the park riding but with the lack of snow we had to cancel our sleds for that day and we took a bus ride in there. It’s the least amount of snow they’ve had in years out there. Just a crazy warm snowless winter in most of the lower 48 this year.

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

A group of us were out snowmobiling in West Yellowstone last week on our annual out west ride. We chose West Yellowstone because we hadn’t been there in a few years and it’s a great place to snowmobile most winters. This year they like most places are down on snow unfortunately but we still managed to have a good trip. Big Sky only had like 25% of their runs open which is pretty crazy for February. We used the same guide we’ve used in the past out there because he specializes in strictly off trail riding and he was able to get us in some good 50” plus snow depths higher up around 9000’ and higher. Bottom line is I’m not sure I would spend the money to go out west and try to play in the snow at least in the areas we were at in ID, MT and WY this year. We usually spend a day in the park riding but with the lack of snow we had to cancel our sleds for that day and we took a bus ride in there. It’s the least amount of snow they’ve had in years out there. Just a crazy warm snowless winter in most of the lower 48 this year.

Love to pick your brain more on west Yellowstone. Wife and I have been talking about a sled trip out there

[Minny_Weather]

I will say that radar is set up a bit farther North than models had it. The northern edge of the snow is almost all the way at the top of Becker County, it was supposed to be here. Been seeing flakes for about 3 hours now. 27°F.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS went from showing me getting a foot just five runs ago to now trolling me by showing under a half inch total between both systems.

What a complete and utter mess of a model. Hope it continues to be wrong. 

[Beltrami Island]

5 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

A group of us were out snowmobiling in West Yellowstone last week on our annual out west ride. We chose West Yellowstone because we hadn’t been there in a few years and it’s a great place to snowmobile most winters. This year they like most places are down on snow unfortunately but we still managed to have a good trip. Big Sky only had like 25% of their runs open which is pretty crazy for February. We used the same guide we’ve used in the past out there because he specializes in strictly off trail riding and he was able to get us in some good 50” plus snow depths higher up around 9000’ and higher. Bottom line is I’m not sure I would spend the money to go out west and try to play in the snow at least in the areas we were at in ID, MT and WY this year. We usually spend a day in the park riding but with the lack of snow we had to cancel our sleds for that day and we took a bus ride in there. It’s the least amount of snow they’ve had in years out there. Just a crazy warm snowless winter in most of the lower 48 this year.

I've been to togwotee numerous times so I follow the snotel station there for curiosity sake even if I have no immediate plans to go there. Its been near 0th percentile for snow depth on the date near the entire winter (records going back to 1980-81). Togwotee and west Yellowstone aren't to far from each other as the crow flys, so I would guess they are near the same vs each's avg. 

Record low snow out there still means 4'+ snow depths at 9-10k feet by this time in the winter.

[james1976]

WWA with a 3-5" band forecasted right through the TC. This might end up being my largest snowfall of the season.

[jaster220]

This could be a last-minute surprise over-performer!

APX much more bullish on totals for here. Since its not targeting GRR's backyard, they're going with lower amounts. Nothing new but GRR's disco does have a couple of nuggets:

[tStacsh]

13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This could be a last-minute surprise over-performer!

APX much more bullish on totals for here. Since its not targeting GRR's backyard, they're going weaker. Nothing new but GRR's disco has couple of nuggets:

We’ve had 1 week of winter.  GRR has a tough forecast tbh.   South nothing, in the middle (where I am) unsure.  North of here should do very well.  This winter will be remembered as the “2 week winter”.   Well more like 12 days.  

[james1976]

Snowing hard. Eyeballing 2". Nice band setting up.

[Madtown]

looks like pound town in minny!

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

We’ve had 1 week of winter.  GRR has a tough forecast tbh.   South nothing, in the middle (where I am) unsure.  North of here should do very well.  This winter will be remembered as the “2 week winter”.   Well more like 12 days.  

True, but I managed 30 days straight snowcover which NEVER happened living in Detroit metro. This won't be enough for snowmobilers, but will be a decent shot of real wintry conditions while it is, after all, winter. 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

looks like pound town in minny!

Yeah, I think they've added some Storm Warned cnty's as well since I last checked.

[james1976]

31 minutes ago, Madtown said:

looks like pound town in minny!

Yeah I haven't been out to measure but looks like at least 4" on the patio table. Looks like a couple hours to go so maybe we can hit 5-6". Easily biggest storm of the season so far.

[Madtown]

Rap and Hrrr have me up to 3" or so would be 2nd biggest total on the year

[james1976]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, I think they've added some Storm Warned cnty's as well since I last checked.

Next county north of me. This system went much further north than forecasted. 

[james1976]

6pm news yesterday local met had 1-2" for MSP. Gonna crush that.

[Hawkeye]

There is a mean-looking band of snow moving through MSP.

[james1976]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a mean-looking band of snow moving through MSP.

Huge fatties right now. Gotta be a solid 5" now. It's pounding 

[Stormgeek]

Got quite the surprise hammering from this storm on the north side of the TC. Awesome!

[MinnesotaSnow]

4” so far at my homestead big cotton balls. 

[Northland09]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Next county north of me. This system went much further north than forecasted. 

I live in the county just north of the TC that turned into a Winter Storm Warning. Initially it was coming down fast and furious! We received 4" in no time! However, it's slowed down quite a bit since I last checked at 7:30. We're now sitting at about 5.5" (and of course there's been some melting too). I think we'll maybe end up with 6" when it's all said and done here in like an hour. This was a pleasant surprise though, I really miss watching this white stuff fall!

[james1976]

I'm still sitting in that heavy band. Gotta be over 6" by now. Easily warning criteria. It's a heavy wet snow. It is stuck to everything. Gonna be a beautiful scene tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see snow reports around the area.

[gimmesnow]

Glad to see winter is alive in some places for us. I won't know what I got until tomorrow morning but I hope it over performs. Feeling optimistic for sure.

[Hoosier]

What we're in now and for the forseeable future isn't an ideal winter pattern by any means, but it is at least capable of producing some snow chances here and there.  Unlike earlier this month when nobody had a chance.

[Clinton]

Winter looks to return for 2 days Friday and Saturday and it may be the last I see of Winter this year.  A 1-3 inch snow might be possible along the I-70 corridor from eastern Kansas through central Missouri.

[tStacsh]

Miss these type of snows. Quick hitting heavy snow.   Got about 3” so far.  Heaviest seems over.  

[westMJim]

At the current time there is snow falling and the temperature is 31. I now have just over 3” of snow on the ground.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/22 there was no rain/snow before midnight. The sun was out 56% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now up to 34/19 the record high of 61 was set in 1954 the record low of -8 was set in 2015. The most rainfall of 0.43” was in 1992 the most snowfall of 4.8” was in 1990. The most snow on the ground was 21” in 1985,1936 in 2014 there was 20” on the ground. Last year the H/L was 52/37 and there was 0.32” of rainfall.

 

[westMJim]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

5 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Got about 3”

that is what I have here as well.

[Tom]

I have a serious question for you guys out East...How many of you are ready for Spring?  How many of you are still interested in Ol' Man Winter making a comeback?  The models in the LR the past few days looked abysmal and they pretty much do today.   I remember the feeling rather well when I lived back in CHI seeing brown grass during the Winter and how badly it sucked.   You get to the point late in the season where you are greedy bc light snow events didn't really excite me much bc you have to deal with a higher sun angle, rising, avg temps and you wanna see a Big Dog at least one time before you flip your mood towards Spring.  

 

[Minny_Weather]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

I have a serious question for you guys out East...How many of you are ready for Spring?  How many of you are still interested in Ol' Man Winter making a comeback?  The models in the LR the past few days looked abysmal and they pretty much do today.   I remember the feeling rather well when I lived back in CHI seeing brown grass during the Winter and how badly it sucked.   You get to the point late in the season where you are greedy bc light snow events didn't really excite me much bc you have to deal with a higher sun angle, rising, avg temps and you wanna see a Big Dog at least one time before you flip your mood towards Spring.  

 

I'm ready for spring at this point, this slog of a winter is just ridiculous. May as well enter thunderstorm season and just get everything green.

[Andie]

Oh no Minny!  I’m not ready for the heat, pleeeze. 
It’s just too much to face right now. 

[Tom]

The LR is highlighting a pattern where we saw a Massive Alaskan/Western U.S. trough inundate the country and that pattern appears likely to end FEB and open MAR.  March coming in like a Lion around here and may very well be a time for me to start thinking about where to go to experience one more (or 2) winter storms.

The JMA Weeklies pretty much reversed any real Winter pattern...Yikes...those of you yearning for Real Snow and Sledding...come out WEST!

Week 2...

Week 3-4...

 

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

I'm ready for spring at this point, this slog of a winter is just ridiculous. May as well enter thunderstorm season and just get everything green.

I'd be right with ya...maybe plan a trip to FL or somewhere south and at least get to enjoy some sunshine and warmth!  

[Black Hole]

Feb 15th is the end of real winter potential around here. I mean it's happened that you can get a big snow through most of March and a subfreezing  high has even happened from time to time into early March, but its rare and fleeting even when winter does come back after this. Further, looking at long range guidance we are very unlikely to get any snow through at least early March.

So no matter how you slice it real winter is over here and the best we could hope for is maybe a return for a day in March. In that sense I'd be happy for another storm, but given the statistics I may as well move on and accept a happy surprise if it happens. If we can prolong the time that its comfortable outside that's fine by me. 

[Tom]

MAR can produce some big time storms so there is a window of opportunity to experience a Blizzard or two before this season is up...we will get storms to come into the 4 corners in early MAR so don't give hope if your in the Plains/Midwest!

[WinterSquall23]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

I have a serious question for you guys out East...How many of you are ready for Spring?  How many of you are still interested in Ol' Man Winter making a comeback?  The models in the LR the past few days looked abysmal and they pretty much do today.   I remember the feeling rather well when I lived back in CHI seeing brown grass during the Winter and how badly it sucked.   You get to the point late in the season where you are greedy bc light snow events didn't really excite me much bc you have to deal with a higher sun angle, rising, avg temps and you wanna see a Big Dog at least one time before you flip your mood towards Spring.  

 

I’m ready.  Big time snow lover here , but is has been frustrating this year.  No more 33 degree rain please. When we had that period of 60s and sunshine it felt good. This winter has been for the record books and not in a good way.  My parents are staying in Sedona AZ for a few months they love it there.  Will have to make a visit down there sometime.