February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Time to Flip the Script to Spring my friend...the way this Winter has crapped out, I'd be more excited to see 70's and that "Spring Smell" in the air...I just read that the trees are budding wayyy to early this year back in Chi.  Not sure if that is good or bad bc we know a Freeze is in the cards soon enough.

Think you answered your own question.    Trees and whatnot will be budding even more by the middle of next week.  All it will take is one cold snap sometime afterward.  

[Hoosier]

Definitely interested in the severe potential next week.  We'll see how it evolves.  Pretty remarkable to see a day 6 area outlooked that far north as SPC is usually reluctant to bite on winter severe threats near/north of 40N at long lead time.

[tStacsh]

40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Think you answered your own question.    Trees and whatnot will be budding even more by the middle of next week.  All it will take is one cold snap sometime afterward.  

2012 was crazy.  Doubt we get a March like that again, but 60's this early and often will once again destroy the apple and cherry crop.  2012 saw 85 percent of apples and 90 percent of cherry crop destroyed in Michigan due to the warmth then April freeze.   

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like March is coming in like late April.     

My temps next week would be normal for late April. 78 in the forecast. 

[Hoosier]

Looks like a small window for some LES around Chicago and potentially into nw IN late Fri/early Sat.  With the lake being so mild, delta T will be higher than it would usually be, but other parameters are very modest.  Some chance this activity could get as far west as ORD, but even if not, the wave swinging in should result in a bit of synoptic snow that, imo, will probably be enough to prevent a snowfall shutout at ORD for February.

[hawkstwelve]

ECMWF and CMC show no real low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies but instead develops it over the Great Lakes, which leads to much lower snow totals in the central CONUS. GFS shows the opposite. 

Any bets on which model camp is right? I know where I am placing my bets. Given the atrocious handling of recent systems by the GFS and it's continued wild flailing with next week's system(s), I'd place decent money on the Euro/CMC solution.

[gimmesnow]

GFS is always wrong in February 2024.

[Hawkeye]

It looks like the blowtorch will come right back later next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

ECMWF and CMC show no real low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies but instead develops it over the Great Lakes, which leads to much lower snow totals in the central CONUS. GFS shows the opposite. 

Any bets on which model camp is right? I know where I am placing my bets. Given the atrocious handling of recent systems by the GFS and it's continued wild flailing with next week's system(s), I'd place decent money on the Euro/CMC solution.

Many times over the years, that low would slow and wrap up over SE Colorado and heads KC. We’d be clobbered on the northwest side. Not this time it would appear. 

[Timmy Supercell]

We had a nice storm come through Ashland around 2 to 2:30pm! A couple booms shook the place. Probably my loudest "winter time" thunderstorm.. I'm tempted to say winter is over but we could still have a mid March snow event, you just never know. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Interesting that t'storm landed on Feb 22nd.. 2 years ago there was a rather large-scale MCS that plowed through the Ohio/TN valleys on 2/22/2022. I should have a few radar loops of that saved, and I think that was one of the events that had a TOR being issued in Nashville, TN. Strangely I went that entire winter season without a single rumble of thunder in Ashland. My first one that year occurred in early March.

If that storm had a name, I'd call it the TWOsday storm, it fell on a Tuesday, and with a bunch of 2's on the date.. lol

[Minny_Weather]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

ECMWF and CMC show no real low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies but instead develops it over the Great Lakes, which leads to much lower snow totals in the central CONUS. GFS shows the opposite. 

Any bets on which model camp is right? I know where I am placing my bets. Given the atrocious handling of recent systems by the GFS and it's continued wild flailing with next week's system(s), I'd place decent money on the Euro/CMC solution.

Yeah, I haven't even mentioned the possibility of snowfall next week here because it's basically been nothing except op GFS showing it.

[Andie]

Low of 49 tonight. 
High today was 79. Oy. 
High tomorrow 70. 

False spring is certainly here.  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/31 there was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 60% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 36/21 the record high of 63 was set in 1984 and 2000 the record low of -10 was set in 2015. The record rainfall of 1.48” fell in 1985 and the record snowfall of 5.4” fell in 1994. The most snow on the ground was 17” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 37/26 and there was a trace of snowfall.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for Southern Lower Michigan.

2000: Warm air surges into Lower Michigan with temperatures reaching the 60s. Grand Rapids sets a record high of 63 degrees and Muskegon hits 60 degrees.

 2003, Port Huron received a foot of snow from a snowstorm that lasted from the 22nd – 23rd.

[gimmesnow]

Ahhh GFS end of run with me in the bull's eye for 11 inches and I'm gonna be out of town. Lock it in Chicago it'll be the one time GFS long range verifies

[james1976]

33 and a few flurries currently. We hit 50 again yesterday. 60 in the forecast this coming Monday. At this rate I'm ready for spring. Daylight is longer and it's almost March already.

Gonna be a hot summer if this pattern doesn't change. 

[Jayhawker85]

17 minutes ago, james1976 said:

33 and a few flurries currently. We hit 50 again yesterday. 60 in the forecast this coming Monday. At this rate I'm ready for spring. Daylight is longer and it's almost March already.

Gonna be a hot summer if this pattern doesn't change. 

That’s one thing i been saying for a while is that summer will arrive early and cook longer with the pattern that we have currently 

[westMJim]

Fun fact. This year is on track to be one of the warmest Februarys on record at Grand Rapids. Of the top ten warmest past Februarys March was colder than February 6 were not much warmer than February and only 1 was much warmer than February.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Gonna be a hot summer if this pattern doesn't change

Past El Nino winter flipping to La Nina during the summer at Grand Rapids have had some cold springs but they so far have had warm summers (not always hot) Going back to 1950 there have been 6 times when a El Nino flipped to La Nina dure the summer. I found the 6 years. 1973 Strong El Nino to strong La Nina, 1988 strong to strong, 1983 very strong El Nino to weak La Nina. 1998 strong to weak. 1954 weak to weak and 1964 moderate to weak. Here is some more information on that.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/02/summer-forecast-el-nino-switching-to-la-nina-points-toward-a-warm-summer.html

[FV-Mike]

Flakes are flying. Grass is covered. NE wind. Nice to see winter again. Even if it is for a short time

[Hoosier]

1.2" at Chicago O'Hare, which is the first measurable snowfall this month and the first measurable snowfall since January 19.  A 34 day snowless streak that was nearly without precedent for Jan/Feb.  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 47/24 there was a reported 0.01” of precipitation that fell as 0.1” of snowfall. Here in MBY there was just a trace of snowfall. There was a reported 48% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 36/21 the record high of 57 was set in 1930 and 1976 the record low of -9 was set in 1989. The most rainfall of 1.09” fell in 2001 the most snowfall of 7.6” fell in 2016 the most snow on the ground was 17” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 29/22 there was a trace of snowfall and 1” on the ground. With clear skies the overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 15.

It will be cold today and warmer on Sunday through Tuesday then cooler to end the month with the current mean for February at 34.5 and the record warmest February at 34.7 in 2017 we will have to wait and see how this month ends up but is 2nd warmest looks good and maybe even a record warmest at Grand Rapids.

[Clinton]

Dry and mild for me the next several days and will make a run at record highs on Monday and Tuesday.

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 2/22/2024 at 11:09 AM, tStacsh said:

2012 was crazy.  Doubt we get a March like that again, but 60's this early and often will once again destroy the apple and cherry crop.  2012 saw 85 percent of apples and 90 percent of cherry crop destroyed in Michigan due to the warmth then April freeze.   

I have about 30 fruit trees mostly apples, but several pears, peach and cherries.  I have been pruning  past several days and the sap is running!  With the coming warmth, I dont know how  a blossom freeze  is avoidable at some point?  Its difficult  to get peaches here maybe less than 35% of yrs. 

[Tom]

Of course, my family back home had to post videos of the snow falling last night...they know me well!  On the other side of the country, this is why I moved here...#Sunshine

 

[Timmy Supercell]

On 2/22/2024 at 6:27 AM, Naptownwx said:

Big multi-day severe weather event is looking increasingly likely next week

Still looking like that's coming. I hope we get something exciting to tide us over until the real season kicks in.

[Timmy Supercell]

The temp sharply dropped just now. It was 45 an hour ago and calm conditions, now 36 w/ blowing wet flakes, occasional 30mph gusts. 

[Tom]

March looks to come in like a Lion this year out West....Tahoe anyone?  If the storm pans out as strong as I'm thinking during the 3/2 - 3/5 period, it should bring down one of the colder airmass's of the season down into the Valley.  The west is going to be blessed with White Gold next month.

[Black Hole]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Of course, my family back home had to post videos of the snow falling last night...they know me well!  On the other side of the country, this is why I moved here...#Sunshine

 

I know you know, but wait till June lol 

[jaster220]

Temp says winter this pm, but there was a migrating hawk and a pair of Robins on my dog walk. Nature is saying early spring

[Black Hole]

The trend has been towards a mostly or entirely dry frontal passage here Tuesday-Wednesday. It'll probably drop from the mid to upper 80s Mon-Tue down to near freezing Wednesday morning. Tues-Wed look windy with fire weather potential. A quick warm up will follow.

 

Looking further ahead, that system the following Monday (or so) has some definite severe potential. 

[Black Hole]

I planted a bunch of my cool season stuff in my garden. I'm trying to taunt the weather into making me regret it 

[Andie]

78*. Clear Skies.  
Ewww.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 31/14 even with 95% of the possible sunshine with a low dew point and a cold NE wind it felt much colder that that. For today the average H/L is 37/22. The record high of 61 was set in 1976 the record low of -14 was set in 1950. The wettest was 1.43” in 1926 the most snowfall of 8.1” fell in 1935. The most snow on the ground was 17” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 32/23 and there was 0.7” of snowfall.

With clear skies the overnight low here in MBY was 25 and at the current time with clear skies it is 27.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for Southern Lower Michigan.

1957: Mild and rainy weather prevails with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. The low of 47 degrees at Grand Rapids sets a record for the warmest low temperature for the date. Over an inch of rain falls as a cold front moves through.

1965, a snowstorm left all of Southeast Michigan covered under nearly a foot of snow. Saginaw received 17.9 inches, Flint had 12.9 inches, and Detroit had 11.0 inches.

Across the USA

1914,  Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1934, An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services.

 

[Clinton]

Early May like weather to start the week which will likely set new record highs Monday and Tuesday and some big storms possible to my east.

[Tom]

Talk about "Weather Whiplash" this week...parts of the Plains/MW will see highs in the mid/upper 70's and 24 hours later nighttime low's in the 10's/20's!  Ouch!

[Timmy Supercell]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Early May like weather to start the week which will likely set new record highs Monday and Tuesday and some big storms possible to my east.

I hope at least the Marginal covers NE KY the next day. 

[Timmy Supercell]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

Talk about "Weather Whiplash" this week...parts of the Plains/MW will see highs in the mid/upper 70's and 24 hours later nighttime low's in the 10's/20's!  Ouch!

Even the two nights 24 hours apart are odd, going from 63 for a low to 28 here! That's the kind of night we'd have in late Spring, in late February.