February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Some weather history for Southern Lower Michigan.

1957: Mild and rainy weather prevails with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. The low of 47 degrees at Grand Rapids sets a record for the warmest low temperature for the date. Over an inch of rain falls as a cold front moves through.

1965, a snowstorm left all of Southeast Michigan covered under nearly a foot of snow. Saginaw received 17.9 inches, Flint had 12.9 inches, and Detroit had 11.0 inches.

Across the USA

1914,  Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1934, An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services.

 

I consider that Feb '65 "bliz" as the beginning of the two golden decades of big storms for SMI. I knew KFNT did well but wasn't aware of the Saginaw total. Since you lived in the area, when the NWS says "Saginaw", are they actually referring to measurements at MBS or somewhere else?

[Tom]

Starting to look like a possible Dakotas Blitz to open up MAR...of course, @Beltrami Island SLP magnet may come into play...we'll see how this one shakes out...

[Minny_Weather]

If I had a dollar for every time this winter I had heavy snow to my north and south with the same low but none actually here, I'd have $3.

Which isn't a lot but it's amazing that I've been screwed in the exact same fashion 3 times this year.

 

I still get plowable snow on NAM, but NAM has absolutely blown over 24 hours out this year.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Starting to look like a possible Dakotas Blitz to open up MAR...of course, @Beltrami Island SLP magnet may come into play...we'll see how this one shakes out...

I have a close eye on the one to open up next week. Even if it's mostly rain for here, it'd still be the most exciting storm I've had in a while.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Talk about "Weather Whiplash" this week...parts of the Plains/MW will see highs in the mid/upper 70's and 24 hours later nighttime low's in the 10's/20's!  Ouch!

Beat me to it.  Quite the change for many of us.  Could even be a bit of snow/mixed precip to accompany it as models are trying to resolve a secondary surface wave.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Early May like weather to start the week which will likely set new record highs Monday and Tuesday and some big storms possible to my east.

Been keeping an eye on this.  I think the main question for me is whether moisture mixes out during the afternoon, and if it does, how quickly can it recover as we head toward evening.  Other than that, setup has some factors going for it.

[chescowxman]

Lows across the county this AM ranged from 14.5 in Nottingham to 21.2 at West Chester Airport. Another below normal temp day today before we warm to well above normal through Wednesday. Rain chances on Tuesday night into Wednesday than we cool back to near normal temps both Thursday and Friday.

County Records for today: High 79 West Grove (1930) / Low 3 below Phoenixville (1914) / Precipitation 2.36" Glenmoore (2016) / Snow 10.0" Devault (1974)

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, chescowxman said:

Lows across the county this AM ranged from 14.5 in Nottingham to 21.2 at West Chester Airport. Another below normal temp day today before we warm to well above normal through Wednesday. Rain chances on Tuesday night into Wednesday than we cool back to near normal temps both Thursday and Friday.

County Records for today: High 79 West Grove (1930) / Low 3 below Phoenixville (1914) / Precipitation 2.36" Glenmoore (2016) / Snow 10.0" Devault (1974)

I sure wish se iowa had the more balanced  weather that eastern  Pennsylvania  had. We have the best soil on the planet.  But  the weather   just a total  freak. 2 yrs of drought. Followed  by record  snow of 38" in  11 days in January.   Barely  a drop of precip now 30 days!!!! .14 in a month!! Incredible!  We may be staring at the driest 6 week period  in my life in usa! Oh and pushing 80f on  monday or tues. All my fruit trees at risk. And ive already  had to water my 120 new trees for 2.5 straight  yrs!

[Clinton]

Windows open in the house and detailing my truck today.  Currently 69 with bright sunshine. 

[Hoosier]

I think Chicago will actually get above 70 on Tuesday, not just hit 70.  Record high is 75, which may be asking a little too much to reach, but there's a nonzero chance of getting there.  

A high of 72 would tie for the 2nd warmest temp all-time in February.  

[Hoosier]

It's quite possible that it's in the 70s in Chicago at 3 pm Tue and in the 20s at 3 pm Wednesday.  In fact I would say it's not only possible, but a likely scenario.  

[Niko]

Looking forward to severe weather next week here in mby. Currently in a marginal risk. From t'stm potential to snowshowers and very windy conditions w temps dropping into the teens Wednesday night after being forecasted to be in the 60s. That should be a smack in the face for a lot of people. It wont last though because we are right back in the 50s and 60s staring Friday and into the weekend. The following week, my area stands the potential to be well into the 60s. Do I dare say near 70F or higher and  this time of the year, models tend to be off on temps, due to higher sun angle. Finally, come early March, I would not be surprise to see trees starting to blossom. That poses a threat because April freezes can damage a lot of flowers and trees. We shall see what happens.

From the looks of it, looks like winter may be on its way out, but like they say: "it ain't over until its over."

[westMJim]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Since you lived in the area, when the NWS says "Saginaw", are they actually referring to measurements at MBS or somewhere else?

That would be for MBS. Generally Bay City would get more snow that at the airport and the airport would get more than the city of Saginaw. That storm had a NE wind so it was always windier and most of the time more snow than at the airport. But remember MBS is only 5 miles SW of the west side of Bay City and about 10 miles from the bay. I remember the storm of 1965 was that was as was the 1967, 1973 and 1978 storms. I move to GR in 1984.

[Hoosier]

Red Flag Warning in IL for tomorrow.  Can't remember seeing many of those in February.

[Hoosier]

RAP has mid-upper 70s in Chicago on Tuesday and would break the all-time record high for February.  Obviously have to keep in mind that it's the RAP in its outer periods, but the RAP (and HRRR) will often outperform other guidance on unseasonably warm days like this, so it's not as tossworthy at this point as it would be if we were discussing something like a winter storm.

That warmth also comes from aggressive mixing, and notice how dewpoints mix out during Tuesday afternoon, especially in Illinois, before rebounding toward evening.  This will play a role in timing/initiation of convection.

[Black Hole]

Fire Weather Watch here for Tuesday. The worst will be to my west though. 

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

RAP has mid-upper 70s in Chicago on Tuesday and would break the all-time record high for February.  Obviously have to keep in mind that it's the RAP in its outer periods, but the RAP (and HRRR) will often outperform other guidance on unseasonably warm days like this, so it's not as tossworthy at this point as it would be if we were discussing something like as a winter storm.

That warmth also comes from aggressive mixing, and notice how dewpoints mix out during Tuesday afternoon, especially in Illinois, before rebounding toward evening.

Yeah, the HRRR does overmix sometimes so it'll be interesting to see. It's got 88F here tomorrow but I'd be surprised if we got that warm. 85F seems reasonable though. 

[Black Hole]

Here are some maps for the setup next Sunday. Obviously a lot is going to change in a week, but if the general idea were correct we'd probably get some warm sector storms followed by a squall. It's got everything you'd want to see, so I'll be watching it closely. 

[Hawkeye]

The first robin and red-winged blackbird arrived today.  Also, I have tulips and crocus emerging.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The first robin and red-winged blackbird arrived today.  Also, I have tulips and crocus emerging.

[Andie]

Low should hit 55 tonight.  
High mañana 92 !

Quite a warm up.  No one is ready for this!  
Actually turned a/c on this afternoon. House was much too warm.  It’s still February!

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The first robin and red-winged blackbird arrived today.  Also, I have tulips and crocus emerging.

Noticed our first red-winged blackbird here today as well and same on the flowers! I'm pretty much done with winter and hope it stays away, except we do have that cold shot coming for mid-week. Severe weather season up next.

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, Andie said:

Low should hit 55 tonight.  
High mañana 92 !

Quite a warm up.  No one is ready for this!  
Actually turned a/c on this afternoon. House was much too warm.  It’s still February!

Low 90’s are the record temps for today here…it’s odd that you’ll hit 90f before PHX does this year!

[Madtown]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Starting to look like a possible Dakotas Blitz to open up MAR...of course, @Beltrami Island SLP magnet may come into play...we'll see how this one shakes out...

Snow? It doesn't snow here anymore Not good to get spring fever in late Feb up here...gonna be a long 2 months. Already dreaming of getting the boat out!

[hawkstwelve]

The Tuesday front been incredibly neutered on almost all of tonight's model runs. Now looking like less than an inch, if anything at all. Lame. Maybe around the 4th/5th?

[Clinton]

Tuesday has a chance to be a historic weather day here, record highs will likely be set in my area with temps in the low 80s to snow falling before midnight.

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Kansas City and surrounding areas are about to have a very dramatic weather change. It will likely go from near 80° Tuesday afternoon to 1" of snow possible by midnight.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/27 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind was 29MPH out of the SW. There was 56% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 37/22 the record high of 64 was set in 1944 the record low of -9 was set in 1963. The most rainfall of 1.33” fell in 2009 and the most snowfall of 4.5” was in 1912. The most snow on the ground was 18” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 40/24.

The overnight low here in MBY was 27 and the current temperature is 33. The forecast low of 48 for tonight would be a new record warmest minimum for the date the current record is 37 set in 2018. The forecast high on Tuesday is 67 and if it makes it to 67 that would tie the current record for the date set in 1976.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan.

2000: Record-warm weather continues during a week-long spell of balmy weather across Lower Michigan. The temperature hits 66 degrees at Muskegon for a record high. The low temperature at Grand Rapids is 53 degrees, setting a record for the warmest low temperature for the month of February.

 2020, a long-duration snowstorm occurred with widespread reports of 3 to 6 inches of snow over much of the county warning area.

 2019, a snowstorm brought about 2 to 4 inches across areas along and north of I-69, while areas to the south saw 2 inches or less.

 1944, the temperature rose to 68 degrees at Detroit Metro Airport. This is a record maximum temperature for the month of February in Detroit.

Across the USA

1910, Parts of Washington State were amid a storm that produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24th and the 26th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms began on the 23rd and led to a deadly avalanche on March 1. Late on the 28th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster.

1972, The Buffalo Creek disaster occurred in the Buffalo Creek Hollow of Logan County in West Virginia. A coal slag dam on the Middle Fork of Buffalo Creek burst, sending a fifty-foot wall of water down a narrow valley killing 125 persons and causing 51 million dollars in damage. Three days of rain atop a six-inch snow cover caused the dam to break.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Crisp low of 32 this morning, 69-70 later.

Can't wait for the thunderstorms beginning late Tue into Wed evening!!

[chescowxman]

18 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I sure wish se iowa had the more balanced  weather that eastern  Pennsylvania  had. We have the best soil on the planet.  But  the weather   just a total  freak. 2 yrs of drought. Followed  by record  snow of 38" in  11 days in January.   Barely  a drop of precip now 30 days!!!! .14 in a month!! Incredible!  We may be staring at the driest 6 week period  in my life in usa! Oh and pushing 80f on  monday or tues. All my fruit trees at risk. And ive already  had to water my 120 new trees for 2.5 straight  yrs!

I always assumed the midwest went through more periods of drought and variability being further from a large water source that both moderates and moistens us up like our proximity to the Atlantic we have here in PA.

[Tom]

Its one of the warmest mornings in a very long time.  Cloud cover and some sprinkles are in the air just south of here...currently 59F/45F and you can smell the moisture in the air.  Not expecting much precip over the coming week until maybe late on Sat into Sun.

Edit: PHX is at 64F

[Andie]

Absolutely Tom.   
It’s heading for 92 in DFW today. Crazy February. I want some cool please.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, chescowxman said:

I always assumed the midwest went through more periods of drought and variability being further from a large water source that both moderates and moistens us up like our proximity to the Atlantic we have here in PA.

Thats very true!  I tell my family  Maryland and Pennsylvania: "you get a 3 week drought, Iowa gets a 3 yr drought".. But whats odd to me is that our yearly precip averages  are basically  the same in SE Iowa as the Mid-Atlantic!!!!   We have been shockingly  below those averages  most months and years since 2012! And perhaps  the greatest oddity is winters have become somewhat wetter  than summer!  One huge difference  in precip here and east is that Iowa's  precip averages  mostly thunderstorm  based. And we just are not getting  mcs thunderstorm  complexes as we historically  have! Literally  eeking by on popup thunderstorms  year after year.

[Hoosier]

Of the 5 days in February that have had a high of 70+ in Chicago, only 1 had measurable snow the following day.  2/11/1999 had a high of 70, and 2/12/1999 had 0.2" snow.

It appears that we could see this kind of thing again on Tue-Wed.  

[Bryan1117]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Of the 5 days in February that have had a high of 70+ in Chicago, only 1 had measurable snow the following day.  2/11/1999 had a high of 70, and 2/12/1999 had 0.2" snow.

It appears that we could see this kind of thing again on Tue-Wed.  

Midwest weather in a nutshell, LOL!

Looking like we go from 80 degree weather here today to cold, wind, and maybe some snow tomorrow night… let the weather roller coaster ride called Spring commence.

[Hoosier]

Still some uncertainty in the finer details for tomorrow's severe threat.  NAMs aside, I think I'd rather be farther east in IL as far as convective initiation goes.  

Think it's possible that the greatest severe threat materializes somewhere close by.

[Beltrami Island]

On 2/25/2024 at 8:19 AM, Tom said:

Starting to look like a possible Dakotas Blitz to open up MAR...of course, @Beltrami Island SLP magnet may come into play...we'll see how this one shakes out...

The entire region needs to get some snow on the ground or this spring fire season is going to be awful.  I know 2015-2016 the DNR here was ramping up by mid-late winter for all hands on deck in anticipation of high fire danger but a widespread wet 8-10" snowfall third week of March erased the danger.    

Now here is a fun fantasy model run 

[Hoosier]

70 here.  Did not expect to hit that today and it makes me wonder where we'll top out tomorrow (though could be more cloudy tomorrow)

[Hoosier]

This is just dirty.  Wonder if HRRR is too cold on Wednesday, but nevertheless...

 

[Hawkeye]

Much of Iowa has surged into the mid to upper 70s.