February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, iFred said:

We didn't have directed energy weapons back then.

No need to HAARP on the obvious.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

30 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I busted out the garden hoses this weekend, I'm calling it.

 

Also, NBC Montana posted these graphics on their FB feed this morning...

Might think twice about washing your car or watering the grass this summer if we do not build some snowpack.

[Andstorm]

So it sounds like while yes the polar vortex is in the process of breaking down, we really need the PNA to be in a negative phase (which it is not) for the right setup to emerge for major cold/snow threat in NW lowlands. That all seems fairly reasonable to me. Not sure why some are suggesting that’s so controversial but still learning the dynamics of this community and what’s real vs just friendly jabbing. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Details don't quite work out for us on this run, but the blocking is insane.  Perfect PV split being shown as well.  Huge potential coming up.

 

13 hours ago, Phil said:

This run does indeed meet SSW criteria. But we’re looking past D10 at this point. And AAM tendency will be increasing again after the 8th or 9th. So even if it happens, the pattern will be a difficult one to make work.

Normally I would be reluctant to call for another Arctic Blast in an El Niño but SSW events during a moderate/strong El Niño seem to have great track records. The winter of 1968-69 had multiple Arctic Blasts and multiple SSW events. And there were extreme winter events that winter and we just had one in January. We can still get an Arctic Blast through February as we all saw last winter. We will need to see the models start getting cold though in the long range soon but it could turn on a dime and come at us quickly due to the SSW event.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro Op still says goodbye to that torch Phil was so confident in mid month.

[ShawniganLake]

Meh. Looks pretty mild mid month. 
 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Turned off my WB subscription. I don't think it'll be needed again til at least Nov.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Andstorm said:

So it sounds like while yes the polar vortex is in the process of breaking down, we really need the PNA to be in a negative phase (which it is not) for the right setup to emerge for major cold/snow threat in NW lowlands. That all seems fairly reasonable to me. Not sure why some are suggesting that’s so controversial but still learning the dynamics of this community and what’s real vs just friendly jabbing. 

Signs of it getting close to going negative as we get towards later in the month. 

Edited February 5 by MossMan

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t disagree with your takes lately. But I do think it’s amusing how you’ve decided to put on your Mr. Realistic pants when things look the most grim for us. I miss the IceAgeLater cutoff jeans, personally!

Yeah, after being Mr. Bullish pants each of the last three Februaries, I figured it was time for a change in attire. For no particular reason.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Turned off my WB subscription. I don't think it'll be needed again til at least Nov.

This all but guarantees a “south valley surprise”

[the_convergence_zone]

Mid-Feb torchfest on the way for sure. Unclear what happens after that, but I would be shocked if the month didn't end above normal at KSEA and KPDX. 

Minneapolis is ridiculously overdue for some real winter this year, it looks like they will finally get an extended cold period. 

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Mid-Feb torchfest on the way for sure. Unclear what happens after that, but I would be shocked if the month didn't end above normal at KSEA and KPDX. 

Minneapolis is ridiculously overdue for some real winter this year, it looks like they will finally get an extended cold period. 

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that a killing freeze is extremely  unlikely for the remainder of the season.

 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that a killing freeze is extremely  unlikely for the remainder of the season.

 

We will get a record-breaking cold freeze in mid-April that will kill even the hardiest of plants after they've had two months of growing season. Then we will have heat wave after heat wave with no precip in sight. Followed by an early freeze to destroy whatever second planting survived the terrible early and mid summer fires. Then it's back to split flow until after Thanksgiving. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that a killing freeze is extremely  unlikely for the remainder of the season.

 

You’ve been playing pretty fast and loose with Poe’s Law lately

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, iFred said:

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that a killing freeze is extremely  unlikely for the remainder of the season.

 

I'm sure the cold will show up the 2nd week of March and bring some more 36 degree rain to Seattle. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

We will get a record-breaking cold freeze in mid-April that will kill even the hardiest of plants after they've had two months of growing season. Then we will have heat wave after heat wave with no precip in sight. Followed by an early freeze to destroy whatever second planting survived the terrible early and mid summer fires. Then it's back to split flow until after Thanksgiving. 

December!!!

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is this a forecast or are these actual wind gusts?

Yes those are actual wind gusts.

[iFred]

finally enjoying winter while on the drive back to the office

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. I’m liking the step down around Valentine’s before we go back to torching. Maybe we can build on that. Control doesn’t look too bad.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at teleconnections alone the EPS is far from terrible.  Tanked NAO, tanked EPO, and only modestly positive PNA later in the run.  The control is minus on all three.  Overall pretty cool (chilly nights and mild days) and probably quite dry with a chance for something much better as things evolve.

[MossMan]

Hoppin day on the forum!!!!!! 

[Deweydog]

Ten (10) years ago RIGHT NOW deep offshore flow was IN PROGRESS as afternoon temperatures hovered in the mid-upper 20’s with FULL SUNSHINE. This would be the LAST sunny day in the days ahead…

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ten (10) years ago RIGHT NOW deep offshore flow was IN PROGRESS as afternoon temperatures hovered in the mid-upper 20’s with FULL SUNSHINE. This would be the LAST sunny day in the days ahead…

And I had this much snow two days from now 10 years ago! 

[Phishy Wx]

CA getting hammered with water

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

Avalanche outside of Vegas in Lee Canyon

 

 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

CA getting hammered with water

 

 

 

I'm impressed at how well their flood control systems seem to be handling this. So far I've seen a couple of mudslides and some minor street flooding, but nothing worse than that. Maybe the worst is yet to come since I assume nobody is driving around the foothills??? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

My brother hasn't had power in San Jose for 27 hours and they said it might be a couple more days potentially. Crazy

33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Avalanche outside of Vegas in Lee Canyon

 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My brother hasn't had power in San Jose for 27 hours and they said it might be a couple more days potentially. Crazy

 

Lucky bastards down there getting all of the good stuff. El Niño can rot in hell. 

[MossMan]

Memories…Nothing More Than Memories…

[Phishy Wx]

at least the carbon in the atmosphere is increasing pretty quickly now.  should lead to more nice SPRING early February days in the future

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

30 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

at least the carbon in the atmosphere is increasing pretty quickly now.  should lead to more nice SPRING early February days in the future

 

 

 

The Trees are happy!!

[SnarkyGoblin]

39 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The Trees are happy!!

Not if they're being eaten by heat-induced bugs!

[Willamette Weenie]

Prediction time: above average temps mid Feb... surprise cold snap last week of Feb, first week of March. Snow on the ground in Willamette Valley, 3" in Portland and 2.5" in Salem. Transition from cold to warm in second week of March will produce a moderate wind storm. No real damage, but some 60+ gusts throughout. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Lucky bastards down there getting all of the good stuff. El Niño can rot in hell. 

El Niño is proof god exists.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

El Niño is proof god exists.

At least our cold/snow teleconnections are aligned with negative temperature anomalies down there as well. Much more satisfying!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My brother hasn't had power in San Jose for 27 hours and they said it might be a couple more days potentially. Crazy

 

The Storm That Wasn’t wasn’ts on…

[Phishy Wx]

it's been 10 days since Spokane has officially been below freezing.  average low is 26

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

at least the carbon in the atmosphere is increasing pretty quickly now.  should lead to more nice SPRING early February days in the future

 

 

 

Managed to capture the year over year background bump at home. If lower public education standards, toddler iPad addiction, and the competency crisis don’t bring us into idiocracy, a background CO2 at over 600 will.

[iFred]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The Trees are happy!!

1/10 arborists agree!

[MossMan]

Been quite the drippy afternoon. 
Currently dripping and 39 degrees.

.08” on the day. I thought Tim said a few days ago that we were looking dry this week…