February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah GEM is just a gift from the gods. Some ensemble improvements on the GFS. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

This looks like an ideal mountain snow setup, especially for the Olympics which desperately need snow. 

Not a pattern where I would usually expect accumulating snow at sea level around Puget Sound except for potential CZ activity. 

You are very right about the Olympics.  They should do some serious making up.  EPS says your wrong about snow in Seattle.  I think people are kind of underestimating this.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah GEM is just a gift from the gods. Some ensemble improvements on the GFS. 

Does that mean snow for you and a screw zone for Seattle? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Does that mean snow for you and a screw zone for Seattle? 

No, I’d assume it’s colder up there with a full latitude trough. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS does get solidly cold and has more snow than previous runs.  Big eastward shift with the "second" trough as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't believe I'm 60 today!  I used to think that was old....

Just a number, I'm 51 and still work circles around the younger guys that work for me. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You are very right about the Olympics.  They should do some serious making up.  EPS says your wrong about snow in Seattle.  I think people are kind of underestimating this.

This pattern can bring sticking snow to the coast, It has happened many times even this late in the season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Happy birthday Jimbo. 
 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I find it fascinating that even with a el nino we can still get nice troughing in February. It's like nothing can get in the way of whatever causes this to happen in Feb.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Happy birthday Jimbo. 
 

Thanks!

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't believe I'm 60 today!  I used to think that was old....

Wow!   Happy Birthday Jim!

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This pattern can bring sticking snow to the coast, It has happened many times even this late in the season.

I have no doubt there will be significant coastal snow.  My big question is how bad the Olympics will screw Seattle.  Our best shot is a displaced C-Zone or the Arctic surface high getting close enough to deaden the onshore flow which happened on last night's ECMWF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big time GFS ensemble improvements!

[Deweydog]

Vegas weather today is Looney Tunes! Got a great light show over the Sierras on the bus ride in last night.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I find it fascinating that even with a el nino we can still get nice troughing in February. It's like nothing can get in the way of whatever causes this to happen in Feb.

Recent Februarys that is.  We've had many losers in the past.

The amazing thing is SEA has a shot at ending up with a below normal Jan and Feb this winter.  In MBY the recent terrible luck I've had with min temps has made that impossible.

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Vegas weather today is Looney Tunes! Got a great light show over the Sierras on the bus ride in last night.

I leave in a couple hours but the rain has been nice

 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just a number, I'm 51 and still work circles around the younger guys that work for me. 

I'm still doing well myself.

[Slushy Inch]

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I leave in a couple hours but the rain has been nice

 

Foot traffic is full on pandemic levels.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Happy 60th, Jim!

[SnowWillarrive]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This EPS is more serious than I thought.

Looks nice. Don’t trust it yet though based on what happened in January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Foot traffic is full on pandemic levels.

We ll be there in April!

[DeepFriedEgg]

36 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This pattern can bring sticking snow to the coast, It has happened many times even this late in the season.

It is a setup that actually allows the coast to vastly outperform inland valleys. 

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow. Record snowfall incoming for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and coastal Vancouver Island.  
 

edit. Just noticed the 20-30” showing up around greater Vancouver. They are going to be measuring snow in feet over the next couple weeks.  

[Phishy Wx]

Late FEB/early MARCH Magic again?  I have tread delicately here because Cascadia will assume this is a sad comment

[snow_wizard]

As Andrew might have guessed....I'm a big fan of the ECMWF.  Nice sharp trough digging right down the BC Coast.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Happy 60th, Jim!

That's awesome!  Thank you so much!

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wow. Record snowfall incoming for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and coastal Vancouver Island.  
 

edit. Just noticed the 20-30” showing up around greater Vancouver. They are going to be measuring snow in feet over the next couple weeks.  

1951

[westcoastexpat]

NWS has released their March 2024 and Spring 2024 outlooks

[snow_wizard]

We might drive that Arctic front to Seattle yet.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS has released their March 2024 and Spring 2024 outlooks

You're going to get a very mixed reaction to this.  It sure isn't going to begin this way though.

[westcoastexpat]

NWS forecaster discussion for Western Washington for the upcoming pattern change:

"The primary focus for more impactful weather across western 
Washington will begin Sunday and continue into early next week 
with troughing developing over British Columbia and northern 
Pacific Northwest. The pattern will become cooler beginning Sunday
along with periods of heavier precipitation. In general, lowland 
rain and heavier mountain snow expected on Sunday into Sunday 
night, with cooler onshore flow on Monday and lowering snow 
levels. Continue to monitor the forecast if you're traveling over 
the Passes later this weekend. Otherwise, warming temperatures in 
the 50s on Friday will cool into the mid 40s by Monday across the 
area. JD"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is quicker with the first trough, no real exciting changes there, let’s see where it goes later on.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We might drive that Arctic front to Seattle yet.

Sooooo far to go for an actual arctic front.     This runs shows much less snow with initial trough as well. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sooooo far to go for an actual arctic front.     This runs shows much less snow with initial trough as well. 

Looks like arctic air didn’t update its passport for Feb except for Alaska. 
 

Pacific ridges have been pathetic this year as to be expected with mega nino.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2nd low on the ECMWF just dumps snow on the cascades, and gives me over a foot!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks good in the mid range too. Not a bad run at all. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks good in the mid range too. Not a bad run at all. 

Its still fairly mild in the lowlands even with the second trough.    Just not a good lowland snow producing pattern... but great for the mountains.  

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Happy birthday Jim!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF actually gets close by day 10... shows some more lowland snow right at the end of the run.    But that will likely change many times.