February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Summer 2011 was very sunny and mild. Three solid months of mostly dry and beautiful, clear weather. I can't imagine anyone moving because of that June-September stretch. With the mountain snowpack also hanging on late it was some of the best our region ever has to offer.

April and May were quite chilly and gloomy, so people's views of that year maybe were clouded (literally!) by that. But most people who have lived here for awhile understand that those are transition months for our region and until recently could almost never be counted on to be barbeque weather months.

The problem is that recent transplants do now have a very warped view of those shoulder months since we have seen so many recent summer seasons like 2015, 2018, 2021, and 2023 solidly extend into the first half of spring.

I certainly agree with this. I like cloudy days with a few hours of afternoon sun and I'm fine with the temperature never going above 80. 

There are just many people who can not handle it, especially if they grew up in a sunnier climate which is pretty much everywhere else. I have a flexible work schedule so I can get outside when the sun comes out, but some people don't have that luxury. 

 

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like a dream. 

The short-lived Bethany station really close by to here had data from 1967-1969. August 1968 looks amazing, a low of 40 one day and over 4" of rain

 

IPS-B82A4756-4543-4EAF-986A-E2E073625BAF.pdf

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Do the numbers it shows get affected by terrain bleed?  The colors over salem look like 11 inches, but it says 5 inches, is the 5 inches accurate or is it also too high? 

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Do the numbers it shows get affected by terrain bleed?  The colors over salem look like 11 inches, but it says 5 inches, is the 5 inches accurate or is it also too high? 

 

There is terrain bleed for sure

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Do the numbers it shows get affected by terrain bleed?  The colors over salem look like 11 inches, but it says 5 inches, is the 5 inches accurate or is it also too high? 

 

It's all massive terrain bleed.   It's comically bad.   Just for weenie fantasies. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

There is terrain bleed for sure

My eyes are bleeding from all of those pretty colors!!! 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course.

Just interesting how lame February was back then, especially compared to the recent stretch.

A lot of really insane -NAO blocks that decade so whenever +PNA did get going we had some pretty ridgy stretches. Like February 1963 and February 1968, both of which surprisingly were weak Ninas. We actually had regional 70 burgers in late February 1968 while Phil's house was an igloo.

[Slushy Inch]

Props to the gfs for actually doing much better with the first trough. Now others are on board with first trough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Props to the gfs for actually doing much better with the first trough. Now others are on board with first trough.

Beautiful 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z Euro snow maps anyone?

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS control pushes the continental cold air toward us a little bit harder than the 12z.  It might make it.

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z EPS control pushes the continental cold air toward us a little bit harder than the 12z.  It might make it.

I don’t think continental air is making into the WA with first trough. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Since 2016-17, every February has featured measurable snow at either SEA or PDX, or both, except one (2019-20). Would be something to make it 7 out of 8.

I don’t know about that, but one thing I am sure about is 2024 being 34 in a row for zero accumulating snow IMBY after February is done. Those models showing otherwise are going to bust and bust hard for SWBC.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

The short-lived Bethany station really close by to here had data from 1967-1969. August 1968 looks amazing, a low of 40 one day and over 4" of rain

 

IPS-B82A4756-4543-4EAF-986A-E2E073625BAF.pdf 1.95 MB · 0 downloads

August 1968 was very wet in the Seattle area as well.  Wettest on record I think.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z GFS shows snow pretty much down to sea level or close Monday and Tuesday morning as the pattern shifts to cold onshore flow. Everyone should see at least snow in the air. If you have some elevation like at 500-1000 feet or higher you should get some accumulations. If the precipitation is heavy enough it could drag the snow level down to the sea level and then anybody could get accumulations.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was born right after the October-December 1985 cold fest petered out

Hot (for the time) May and August followed.

You're still wet behind the ears

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Props to the gfs for actually doing much better with the first trough. Now others are on board with first trough.

GFS can be decent for pattern recognition. less so for actual results

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

About 3rd shade of blue!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 18z GFS shows snow pretty much down to sea level or close Monday and Tuesday morning as the pattern shifts to cold onshore flow. Everyone should see at least snow in the air. If you have some elevation like at 500-1000 feet or higher you should get some accumulations. If the precipitation is heavy enough it could drag the snow level down to the sea level and then anybody could get accumulations.

I’m hoping to get a couple of slushy inches. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 1956 was legit cold. 

Yeah, that's the only February in the 1950s-1970s that was even close to as cold as Feb 2019.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

August 1968 was very wet in the Seattle area as well.  Wettest on record I think.

Almost. August 1975 barely beat it out by .01" with 4.59".

[Front Ranger]

Even in the -PDO phase of the 1940s - 1970s, truly wet Augusts were pretty rare. From 1945 to 1967, only two Augusts had more than 2" at SEA, and not one had 3". There have actually been two Augusts with 3" since 2000, 2004 and 2015.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

August 1968 is the biggest outlier month in terms of precip in our areas 130 year period of record. January 1985 is in the ballpark on the other end of the spectrum.

[Phishy Wx]

Local news. "we're going to go back into winter for a WHILE later next week". whatever that means

[RCola]

33 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 18z GFS shows snow pretty much down to sea level or close Monday and Tuesday morning as the pattern shifts to cold onshore flow. Everyone should see at least snow in the air. If you have some elevation like at 500-1000 feet or higher you should get some accumulations. If the precipitation is heavy enough it could drag the snow level down to the sea level and then anybody could get accumulations.

Looks like a lot of shadowing for Seattle unfortunately.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 52/40 day here. Mostly cloudy and staying a little cooler than forecast. Nice to have a day underachieve since a lot of guidance had us making a run at 60.

Even way down south at EUG they only made it up to 58. 53/39 day at SLE.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like Mark is on the 60 burger train for later this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 52/40 day here. Mostly cloudy and staying a little cooler than forecast. Nice to have a day underachieve since a lot of guidance had us making a run at 60.

Even way down south at EUG they only made it up to 58. 53/39 day at SLE.

Some rain rolled in this evening. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some rain rolled in this evening. 

Every day that is not warmer and/or drier than forecast is a blessing to be cherished.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m hoping to get a couple of slushy inches. 

Can I at least have one!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Can I at least have one!

If I have any to spare! 

[the_convergence_zone]

54 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Even in the -PDO phase of the 1940s - 1970s, truly wet Augusts were pretty rare. From 1945 to 1967, only two Augusts had more than 2" at SEA, and not one had 3". There have actually been two Augusts with 3" since 2000, 2004 and 2015.

Aug 2015 was a crazy month with a big rain producing storm mid-month and that epic windstorm at the end of the month that was pretty much unprecedented. That was the first year of our recent smoke epidemic and it would have been quite a bit worse if not for those two storms. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Aug 2015 was a crazy month with a big rain producing storm mid-month and that epic windstorm at the end of the month that was pretty much unprecedented. That was the first year of our recent smoke epidemic and it would have been quite a bit worse if not for those two storms. 

Those two storms almost made me move. I’d be living in Yuma by now if a third one had hit.

[Slushy Inch]

Icon

[snow_wizard]

The ICON is digging way better than the 12z.  A trend we have seen in all models today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON STATUS

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON STATUS

Good!

[MossMan]

Tim might need to gas up his snow blower!