February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

49 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What is the reason they have been centered so persistently over the PNW, and not other places?

I figured you'd have some expertise for us on the matter.

Phil?

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

18z NAM, HRRRRRRRRR, and NAM 3KM were all pretty decent. NAM3km is pretty good for Puget Sound weenies, and all 3 give some of the willamete valley weenies snow. Currently seems like Eugene/Springfield will do the best.

HRRR has me in the dark blue! Bring it!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

18z NAM, HRRRRRRRRR, and NAM 3KM were all pretty decent. NAM3km is pretty good for Puget Sound weenies, and all 3 give some of the willamete valley weenies snow. Currently seems like Eugene/Springfield will do the best.

Would be nice if timing could speed up with this system so the heaviest precip could be in the 1AM-9AM timeframe when it's coldest.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I figured you'd have some expertise for us on the matter.

Phil?

 

I think his general explanation has been Hadley Cell expansion, but no idea why that would affect the PNW more than anywhere else.

[Phishy Wx]

lol Landscapers already want to install new sod on Thursday.  seems like they're jumping the gun.  "Provided we don't get alot of snow we'll be there on Thursday at 10am". I was expecting April, lol

[the_convergence_zone]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Meteorological spring is basically here.

Yeah, as of two weeks ago February is considered tornado season in Wisconsin. Now that there's been one the floodgates can open up. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

18z NAM, HRRRRRRRRR, and NAM 3KM were all pretty decent. NAM3km is pretty good for Puget Sound weenies, and all 3 give some of the willamete valley weenies snow. Currently seems like Eugene/Springfield will do the best.

Yay! They all show me doing okay. 

[Phishy Wx]

it was like 93 in Dallas yesterday in Feb

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would be nice if timing could speed up with this system so the heaviest precip could be in the 1AM-9AM timeframe when it's coldest.

Not sure if timing matters that much in this type of setup.  Day or night doesn’t matter much if it’s absolutely dumping on the backside of that front.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol Landscapers already want to install new sod on Thursday.  seems like they're jumping the gun.  "Provided we don't get alot of snow we'll be there on Thursday at 10am". I was expecting April, lol

It’ll probably be fine if it’s good sod. It’ll just sit there and start growing when it warms up a bit. 

[Phishy Wx]

i've been monitoring this new experimental NOAA model this winter and it's been pretty spot on our totals for storms so far

 

[MossMan]

The snow sure does disappear in a hurry this time of the year though without any arctic air. 
Currently 38.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would be nice if timing could speed up with this system so the heaviest precip could be in the 1AM-9AM timeframe when it's coldest.

That’s the opposite of what you want. In this setup the slower the system moves the better chance for low elevation snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

More fukking downslope drying here today, by tthe time moisure gets here it will be to warm. Of course there wont be a problem getting 4 inches of rain tomorrow.

[bainbridgekid]

Tomorrow looks sneaky stormy with nearly an inch of rain and 30-45 mph wind. Might also be fun tracking the snow level falls on the backside of this system tomorrow night.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like these models are showing a solid 4-8” here on Thursday. Friday morning looks interesting too. 

[SnowWillarrive]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think his general explanation has been Hadley Cell expansion, but no idea why that would affect the PNW more than anywhere else.

If anything it seems to have impacted MidAtlantic winters more. 

[Snowlova]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Tomorrow looks sneaky stormy with nearly an inch of rain and 30-45 mph wind. Might also be fun tracking the snow level falls on the backside of this system tomorrow night.

 

Dec 21st, 2020 vibes

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

i've been monitoring this new experimental NOAA model this winter and it's been pretty spot on our totals for storms so far

 

It's pretty easy to forecast basically nothing. In a case you actually get a lot of snow, it might say too low of numbers. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Tomorrow looks sneaky stormy with nearly an inch of rain and 30-45 mph wind. Might also be fun tracking the snow level falls on the backside of this system tomorrow night.

 

It is interesting, if you watch what is happening the front is developing with a bunch of cold air filtering in behind so temps could fall fairly fast on the back edge. Ana fronts are cool and it could work out in oregon if there is enough cold air mixed with the heavy precip. It looks like it could almost do that around the sound still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Through 4am friday

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice!

We had a rare snow squall warning this morning. Picked up 2" in 45 minutes.

Those are fun! I had a little over 2" fall in 30 minutes during the big January dump. It had been a long time since I last saw snowfall rates like that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks much like the last event here, euro showed around 4, mm5 showed 8 and i got 5.5. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s the opposite of what you want. In this setup the slower the system moves the better chance for low elevation snow. 

I guess I mean to say, have it arrive a lil earlier but then stall out over us for like 24 hours.

If winds are from the WNW then they will upslope into the McKenzie River area and moisture can get hung up here a bit.

[bainbridgekid]

Impressive temp drop tomorrow night behind the cold front on the 3km NAM. Really sharp visible cold front. It also shows 47 mph gusts in Seattle tomorrow afternoon around 3 PM.

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Through 4am friday

Looking like a lot of people could get a slushy 1/2” to an inch or so. 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

More fukking downslope drying here today, by tthe time moisure gets here it will be to warm. Of course there wont be a problem getting 4 inches of rain tomorrow.

Just nothing to hold the cold in place with this.  Probably one of the quickest hitting cold air masses I've seen in long time.  850s bottomed out at about -9 last night.  We've had seasons they never get that cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess I mean to say, have it arrive a lil earlier but then stall out over us for like 24 hours.

If winds are from the WNW then they will upslope into the McKenzie River area and moisture can get hung up here a bit.

That March 2012 anafront DUMPED accumulating snow across the mid valley during the middle of the afternoon. That was three weeks later too. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking like yet another winter without a significant south wind event here. 

They seem to fully be a thing of the past at this point. 

Yeah, I don't remember having much strong south wind these past few years.

We've had some big east wind storms though. 12/22/22 brought some power outages here and 1/13/24 was extremely intense, strongest east wind I've seen here, I'm surprised we kept power. There's a house nearby that unfortunately got crushed by a big tree during that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

One very sad note to this, however, is they reintroduced wolves to the Selkirk Mountains in WA, and they wiped out the last remaining caribou herd in the lower 48.  That was a royal F up.

Ok, this is the second time that you’ve posted this misinformation. It’s widely documented that the NE Washington heard of woodland caribou went extinct due to habitat loss caused by logging. Reduced forest cover and habitat fragmentation have definitely made them more susceptible to predation, but wolves have always been a part of their environment. There was never any need to reintroduce wolves up there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking like a lot of people could get a slushy 1/2” to an inch or so. 

There is more after this shown on the 4km. This might be the most widespread snow all season.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just nothing to hold the cold in place with this.  Probably one of the quickest hitting cold air masses I've seen in long time.  850s bottomed out at about -9 last night.  We've had seasons they never get that cold.

The period from thursday moring to sunday morning is looking really good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just nothing to hold the cold in place with this.  Probably one of the quickest hitting cold air masses I've seen in long time.  850s bottomed out at about -9 last night.  We've had seasons they never get that cold.

We never cleared out and got below freezing last night, so that shows it was a solidly cold airmass. This with onshore flow too. Our issue was just precip. Once the front went through there just wasn’t much behind it down this way. The west/sw flow behind this next front is the opposite of what we just saw. Moisture probably won’t be an issue. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Impressive temp drop tomorrow night behind the cold front on the 3km NAM. Really sharp visible cold front. It also shows 47 mph gusts in Seattle tomorrow afternoon around 3 PM.

 

Mid 30s is often cold enough for snow with heavy precip rates.  It could happen

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ok, this is the second time that you’ve posted this misinformation. It’s widely documented that the NE Washington heard of woodland caribou went extinct due to habitat loss caused by logging. Reduced forest cover and habitat fragmentation have definitely made them more susceptible to predation, but wolves have always been a part of their environment. There was never any need to reintroduce wolves up there.

I have seen 2 wolves on my game cams at cabin. They had tags.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We never cleared out and got below freezing last night, so that shows it was a solidly cold airmass. This with onshore flow too. Our issue was just precip. Once the front went through there just wasn’t much behind it down this way. The west/sw flow behind this next front is the opposite of what we just saw. Moisture probably won’t be an issue. 

The models were pretty accurate for here too. We got down to 36F and had some splats in the rain. Hopefully that bodes well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The period from thursday moring to sunday morning is looking really good.

The GFS had quite an event for Friday morning on the 12z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Look at all that cold air mixing with that front. Going to be dynamic.

[snow_wizard]

I guess it was Sunday morning on the 12z GFS.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Look at all that cold air mixing with that front. Going to be dynamic.

Sometimes those fronts get cold air dammed up along the back edge.  If it stalls some places could pick up some snow.