February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I post snowy maps too.   The GEM is probably meaningful in this situation though.    I have no idea what will happen but when the GFS is showing 4 feet of snow in Seattle its usually a good idea to cross-check it with other models.  

It's showing 4 feet?!    It could be off by a factor of 12 and many of us would still be happy.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The GFS snow map is completely meaningless. The terrain bleed for this temp profile is outrageous. 

It's way more than that.  

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's showing 4 feet?!    It could be off by a factor of 12 and many of us would still be happy.

You need the GFS to show 20 feet to produce 2 inches of snow. 

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's showing 4 feet?!    It could be off by a factor of 12 and many of us would still be happy.

6z Euro 10:1 ratio map gives you 7" Thursday night. Kuchera gives you 1".

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Euro 10:1 ratio map gives you 7" Thursday night. Kuchera gives you 1".

I am sure it will be 15-degree powder... the 10:1 map is probably understating reality.   

[bainbridgekid]

Forecasting this week will be particularly hard because there are several disorganized systems and blobs of moisture rotating through and tracking the exact strength, location, and timing of each of them will be nearly impossible.

Wouldn't matter if temps weren't going to be near freezing some of the time, but as it is any of them could drop a quick 1-3" of snow just about anywhere if timed right during the night. Thursday night and Saturday night look like the most real threats at this point to me.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure it will be 15-degree powder... the 10:1 map is probably understating reality.   

It was -18F up near our cabin this morning. Perhaps that arctic boundary will suddenly surge south. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

6z Euro 10:1 ratio map gives you 7" Thursday night. Kuchera gives you 1".

An inch would be something at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Weather words of the year,

Terrain bleed.

AR.

Kuchera.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Weather words of the year,

Terrain bleed.

AR.

Kuchera.

You forgot "worst of the worst"

[snow_wizard]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Forecasting this week will be particularly hard because there are several disorganized systems and blobs of moisture rotating through and tracking the exact strength, location, and timing of each of them will be nearly impossible.

It would be really hard for most places to not score at least once will all of the chances coming up.  It's always nice to see the models showing snow over the ocean off the coast.  Kind of lends some cushion for precip type.  Saturday night is particularly intriguing with the Seattle area sitting right on the zero line between the Pacific and Canadian surface highs.  It wouldn't be hard for Seattle to come up with a few inches.  Wouldn't be hard to come up with nothing more than just some flakes as well.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Weather words of the year,

Terrain bleed.

AR.

Kuchera.

I think terrain bleed is being over used.

[Phishy Wx]

not terrain bleed as much as lack of resolution.  Terrain bleed is a result of that.  (talking GFS here)

GEFS has less Ensemble members than the EPS suite.

so the GFS suffers in these type situations.  Euro does too,  to a lesser degree.

I'd focus more on the short term models anyway as Globals are more for pattern recognition and less so amounts.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think terrain bleed is being over used.

AR also is, every time it rains more than 12hrs it is an AR event. That term was used maybe once a a year back in the old days when we had a AR event. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

not terrain bleed as much as lack of resolution.  Terrain bleed is a result of that.  (talking GFS here)

GEFS has less Ensemble members than the EPS suite.

so the GFS suffers in these type situations.  Euro does too,  to a lesser degree.

I'd focus more on the short term models anyway as Globals are more for pattern recognition and less so amounts.

 

Terrain bleed is a direct cause of lack of resolution. It can't "resolve" the terrain change. 

 

The models end up binning 500' with 2000', especially around the olympics where elevation changes 1000' a mile.

[OysterPrintout]

So we're thinking Portland might not get 8" of snow with temps at 38 and southerlies? 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has a pretty legit snow threat for this area Friday morning.  Good precip band with temps around freezing.  Also has snow Thursday morning, but might not be real.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

AR also is, every time it rains more than 12hrs it is an AR event. That term was used maybe once a a year back in the old days when we had a AR event. 

Yeah Pineapple Expresses only happened once every few years it seemed like. Now we have an AR every few weeks it seems like. 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

So we're thinking Portland might not get 8" of snow with temps at 38 and southerlies? 

About as likely as Seattle getting 4" of snow in a fully onshore flow regime LOL. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

EURO shows 17" at Forks by Saturday morning. Laughable. 

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has a pretty legit snow threat for this area Friday morning.  Good precip band with temps around freezing.  Also has snow Thursday morning, but might not be real.

The 12Z HRRR has the snow level getting down to about 500' in the north Sound early Thurs morning. It's dynamic cooling due to strong precip rates combined with diurnal min. 

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

So we're thinking Portland might not get 8" of snow with temps at 38 and southerlies? 

Don't get caught up in the (surface) details, 925/850 winds or temps, they only lead to depression. Stick to the snow maps, except Tims GEM maps, ignore those.

[snow_wizard]

The Arctic front sags even further south on the 12z ECMWF than it did on the 0z.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The 12Z HRRR has the snow level getting down to about 500' in the north Sound early Thurs morning. It's dynamic cooling due to strong precip rates combined with diurnal min. 

That one could work out.  Precip rates will be heavy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nws talking about 1 inch possible today out around the canal.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nws talking about 1 inch possible today out around the canal.

I think you definitely get 6-8 inches this week added together over a couple of events. Wouldn’t be surprised if SEA scored a couple inches also. They are due.

[snow_wizard]

This is getting pretty real for March.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think you definitely get 6-8 inches this week added together over a couple of events. Wouldn’t be surprised if SEA scored a couple inches also. They are due.

The chances are decent.  We're really due for a decent March snow event.

[iFred]

13 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

About as likely as Seattle getting 4" of snow in a fully onshore flow regime LOL. 

@Meatyorologist, I'd like to report a violation of our community code of conduct.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Terrain bleed is a direct cause of lack of resolution. It can't "resolve" the terrain change. 

The models end up binning 500' with 2000', especially around the olympics where elevation changes 1000' a mile.

It affects me, too, via terrain bleed from the North Shore Mountains.

It’s compounded by a lot of the modelled snowfalls in the coming days being marginal, temperature-wise.

Trying to decide if I should plan more moving trips this week, and it’s not easy. I do not enjoy driving in the snow in a climate where so few other drivers have much practice in it.

[snow_wizard]

Being real we are very fortunate to be in this pattern right now given the context.  Getting an early jump on transitioning to La Nina atmospheric conditions.  There will probably be a lot to be happy about over the next 18 months.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Being real we are very fortunate to be in this pattern right now given the context.  Getting an early jump on transitioning to La Nina atmospheric conditions.  There will probably be a lot to be happy about over the next 18 months.

I don't believe ENSO is causing this... it seems something else is overriding ENSO and we get cold weather at this time of year regardless of ENSO.    I am sensing this also means another toasty warm season because there has been no regime change.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

About as likely as Seattle getting 4" of snow in a fully onshore flow regime LOL. 

Actually that can happen.  Also worth noting the flow will not be onshore all of the time with the coming cold shot.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances are decent.  We're really due for a decent March snow event.

Unfortunately this looks like a pretty different evolution from 1989 or 1960. 

A lot of close but no snow-gar on the Euro for most of us. Persistent 500-1000' snow levels. Similar to that stretch at this same time last year following the arctic airmass.

I'd expect some spotty accumulations to continue in the lowlands but the high end potential requires much deeper offshore flow than what we're getting here.

[The Winter Warlock]

Post EURO maps plz.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, The Winter Warlock said:

Post EURO maps plz.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't believe ENSO is causing this... it seems something else is overriding ENSO and we get cold weather at this time of year regardless of ENSO.    I am sensing this also means another hot warm season because there has been no regime change.

I mentioned this last month and got laughed at, Something we have not discovered is causing this in feb.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't believe ENSO is causing this... it seems something else is overriding ENSO and we get cold weather at this time of year regardless of ENSO.    I am sensing this also means another hot warm season because there has been no regime change.

We are in a weird regime right now.  The winters have actually shown a slight cooling from the turn of the century to now while the summers have skyrocketed.  I think July could be more comfortable this year, but August will be probably be more of the same we've been seeing.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Unfortunately this looks like a pretty different evolution from 1989 or 1960. 

A lot of close but no snow-gar on the Euro for most of us. Persistent 500-1000' snow levels. Similar to that stretch at this same time last year following the arctic airmass.

I'd expect some spotty accumulations to continue in the lowlands but the high end potential requires much deeper offshore flow than what we're getting here.

There are a couple of southern tracking lows being shown in the mix.  It wouldn't be hard to pull off some decent localized events.  That having been said I wouldn't be shocked to see nothing more than a few flakes here.  It snowed pretty hard here for a bit yesterday and even that was awesome to watch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is chilly