February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

47 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Can you imaging trying to forecast from these as a professional?

I was a machinist for a long time before I moved into Mgmt.  Can't imagine doing your job with faulty measuring tools.

Seems like forecasts from the Mets up here locally have been very accurate this winter.  Can’t speak to what people get in other areas but it’s pretty easy for them to ignore those pretty snow maps when they show 10” of 37 degree snow.  

[the_convergence_zone]

12Z Euro snow depth change is better, but still looks too high.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks more suppressed by Monday... overrunning event seems to be gone but there is a little low that brings some snow on Monday morning across western WA.    And of course the OR coast is still being buried alive.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like forecasts from the Mets up here locally have been very accurate this winter.  Can’t speak to what people get in other areas but it’s pretty easy for them to ignore those pretty snow maps when they show 10” of 37 degree snow.  

Yeah they all know the biases and correct accordingly. Snow maps are a relatively new phenomenon anyway and most in the professional community avoid them like the plague. There's a reason why the model data providers don't provide them -- they are created by the map websites. 10:1 map = QPF * (% snow) * 10. So if you have 1 inch of QPF and it's a perfect mix of 50% rain and 50% snow, the 10:1 map will give you 5 inches of snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cannon Beach and Forks are big winners over the next 48 hours per the 12Z ECMWF.    Cannon Beach must be up to 200 inches of snow this winter just going by the ECMWF... but I have not verified.  

3-4 here

[snow_wizard]

Another move south with the Arctic air on the ECMWF.

[Eugene-5SW]

Planning a weekend snowboarding getaway at Rockaway Beach. That 40" of snow on the Euro is a lock, right???

[TT-SEA]

Overrunning event is totally gone on this run... but it still works out well for western WA.    This one has a chance because the upper levels are quite cold.   

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

12Z Euro snow depth change is better, but still looks too high.

That amount looks very possible here given the pattern.

[snow_wizard]

This snow is totally real for the Central Puget Sound area.  Cold mid levels and near freezing at the surface.

[ShawniganLake]

Wet and windy out there. 1.32” so far today.  Over 1.5” since last evening 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Overrunning event is totally gone on this run... but it still works out well for western WA.    This one has a chance because the upper levels are quite cold.   

 

This run shows Monday morning through Tuesday morning being the best shot we have.  Temps look great.

[Eugene-5SW]

As long as ECMWF is fixing snow maps, I wouldn't mind if they'd fix QPF amounts while they're at it.

All the global models are usually too bullish on QPF for my location, but the Euro is by far the worst. It routinely shows 2x-3x the actual amount right up to the event. I know some of it is terrain bleed, but it seems like actual QPF amounts rarely verify even at favored locations.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

58 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Yeah super frustrating.  It's hard to take anything seriously these days - even the euro has been remarkably wrong this year for Seattle, albeit much better than the gfs.

Maybe this is all done intentionally for meteorologist job-security.

Mark nelsen paying Europe to make their weather model worse, that'd be pretty interesting...

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

12 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Planning a weekend snowboarding getaway at Rockaway Beach. That 40" of snow on the Euro is a lock, right???

Please do, invite every snowboarder you know. Us skiers will suffer in the Cascade cement while yall enjoy coast range pow. Seems fair.

[snow_wizard]

Legit cold air on this run, and there's room for it to get even better.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Mark nelsen paying Europe to make their weather model worse, that'd be pretty interesting...

I don't know if it's still true, but at one point the bonus payouts at ECMWF were based on how far ahead of the GFS they were. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

As long as ECMWF is fixing snow maps, I wouldn't mind if they'd fix QPF amounts while they're at it.

All the global models are usually too bullish on QPF for my location, but the Euro is by far the worst. It routinely shows 2x-3x the actual amount right up to the event. I know some of it is terrain bleed, but it seems like actual QPF amounts rarely verify even at favored locations.

Same here.  Often too wet.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Same here.  Often too wet.

Always too wet for me

[snow_wizard]

If we can actually get snow this could be a really impressive run of weather coming up.  The cold signal is getting really strong.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wet and windy out there. 1.32” so far today.  Over 1.5” since last evening 

Almost nothing but shadowing here so far.

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF not too keen on lowland snow with the anafront situation tomorrow morning... temps only drop into the upper 30s in the Seattle area on this run.

Shockingly the ICON actually has a little bit.

[AlTahoe]

The newest Euro is an eye opener for my area. It has 70" for the middle of the lake which is normally the driest part. 74" for the beach by my house. Easily the biggest single storm total I have ever seen the model throw out

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z Euro gives 40" of snow in the next 96 hours over the ocean West of Portland. Boats better start evacuating now.

There has to be a way to fix this nonsense.

It must be almost impossible, because you have the ICON on the other extreme which is as blind as a bat to snow in marginal situations.  Should be easy to fix the 38 degree snow threats we often see though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The newest Euro is an eye opener for my area. It has 70" for the middle of the lake which is normally the driest part. 74" for the beach by my house. Easily the biggest single storm total I have ever seen the model throw out

It's showing feet on the OR coast....so yeah.

[bainbridgekid]

Whistler got 18" of snow in the last 12 hours with lots more to come.

I took this picture on a lift there this weekend, so definitely much needed.

 

[Slushy Inch]

EPS 

[Slushy Inch]

Epsl will be heavily favored 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Could someone post the ECMWF kuchera map to hour 240?

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS 

That Arctic front just keeps getting closer.

[Snownerd3000]

20 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Whistler got 18" of snow in the last 12 hours with lots more to come.

I took this picture on a lift there this weekend, so definitely much needed.

 

 

This was Whistler this last weekend!? Do you recall the lift you were on?

[the_convergence_zone]

I stepped through the 1-h ECMWF precip type plots and there was not a single timestep with snow over downtown Seattle. It was either rain or dry. The temperature does not drop below 36-37 degrees. 

Despite that, the model is showing several inches of snow with the Kuchera ratio. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I'll take what the HRRR is having. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Epsl will be heavily favored 

Can’t spell EPSL without EPS

[Phishy Wx]

22 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

i've been monitoring this new experimental NOAA model this winter and it's been pretty spot on our totals for storms so far

 

in case you were wondering this model nailed our 'event' over here again.  had about 1/4" on grassy surfaces that was melted by 8am

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tiger is going to score big time with this pattern upcoming!!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tiger is going to score big time with this pattern upcoming!!! 

Hoping for at least some flakes in the air overnight at some point.

[bainbridgekid]

24 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

This was Whistler this last weekend!? Do you recall the lift you were on?

Fitzgibons. Goes from the village up to 3,400 feet and that was near the top. The main runs themselves had plenty of snow because of snowmaking but the area in the trees and under the lifts were completely bare below about 3,500 feet.

I had to ski that lower run because the upper lifts where the good snow was were closed due to 90 mph winds up top.

[Willamette Weenie]

I just want to bounce in and point out... called it:

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said:

I just want to bounce in and point out... called it:

 

you have any lotto numbers to share?