DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 00z GFS is better over here a bit furthur NE of NAM. Still plenty of time to watch this.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dominic beat me to it. If it's 3", that'll be alright too. 1-4" seems reasonable with this system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 00z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ah D**n this is not turning into what looked like a solid advisory or even low warning snow yesterday. Still plenty of time to keep an eye on it..I hope we can squeeze 2-3 inches here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The local weatherman just gave Rockford .6 inches. This is using the latest guidance (not sure what model). Earlier this evening we were 2-4". To be honest, it makes me sad. The only sliver of hope is it is still early, things can still change. Quote Signature here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 3+" today in DSM area with TSSN. throw in 30mph winds with gusts to 55mph= awesomeness !!!! Local TV Weather guys says it's been a long winter. ??? Short memory these people have. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 GEM Snowfall: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The local weatherman just gave Rockford .6 inches. This is using the latest guidance (not sure what model). Earlier this evening we were 2-4". To be honest, it makes me sad. The only sliver of hope is it is still early, things can still change. Welcome! and I agree. It seems like models trending weaker and furthur SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 GEM Snowfall:http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014011700/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_14.png Hey that sweet 3-4 inches for C IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Last snowfall map MKX put out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 MKE always hyping totals...wondering if that is an old map posted this afternoon. LOT will adjust totals tonight I'm thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's 5 degrees in Dubuque right now. That's pretty cold considering there is a 15 mph wind and an overcast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 00z Euro weak run...but more widespread with precip...weakens as it heads into IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Perhaps this is just a run-of-the-mill clipper. Nothing more, nothing less. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 LOT still going with 2-4 with potential more. Nice write up in the AFD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I am very interested to see if this trends back a little stronger today, That would make the last 3 systems were predicted strong further north, then went a little weaker 2 days out and further south, and finally the day before started going back north . Just like patterns and thought I would share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 MKX lowered amounts. WGN is saying 2-4" still. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 This clipper for Sat needs to go further north, or else I am getting zilch. Hopefully it does. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 NAM's showing a miss here for the most part. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 best snows look to be just to our west now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 best snows look to be just to our west now And to my east. The general consensus now appears to be favorable for places like Decorah/Dubuque/Clinton/Freeport/Sterling. Cedar Rapids should get something, but we'll be on the warmer sw edge where the ratios will be lower. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z RGEM...some of the models are showing a thing stripe of .30qpf now indicating what LOT has mentioned in their Disco. I think this system is going to be a nowcast as it will be to hard to predict where this heavier band of 5-6" of snow may set up. I think ORD is good to get 2-3". It seems the Clipper wants to pivot east once it hits IL so that will be important as to how much NE IL receives from this Clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 DVN mentions ratios of possibly 18-20:1 up towards Dubuque. Don't know if they will end up being that high, I'm thinking more like 15-18:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 That band of snow in S/SE WI looking good as it is pivoting SE...RGEM had a good handle on this band and seems like there is some LehS going on. Hoping to get in on that band later this afternoon/evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 its a clipper so who knows whats gonna happen, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Grids near the lake in WI are down to 1-2" now. Probably see one good band of snow from this system to the west for those lucky enough to get under it. 12z GFS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east. Looks like my hunch was wrong. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Euro looks to spit out about 2"-4" depending on ratios. Track will wobble a little here n there but a couple inches looks good for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hi. new to the board. WGN RPM had 3.7 for aurora, 4.1 for morris and less amounts north east of Kane County Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Anyone have the SREF's for ORD??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The coverage area on this clipper is such that any small wobble either way can make a huge difference on who ends up with the most qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 mean is for ord .2.5 many show nothing a few near 5 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 If this baby can jog a little bit to the north, I am in business. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 ITS COMING AGAIN FOLKS!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 ITS COMING AGAIN FOLKS!!! lol this is great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 ha the NAM is going way left... FLurries Here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The coverage area on this clipper is such that any small wobble either way can make a huge difference on who ends up with the most qpf. "the most" yes, but quite a nice area will end up getting some action on this one still. If this baby can jog a little bit to the north, I am in business. I'm pulling for ya Nikos. Per this future map from Intellicast, they apparently feel the same. Showing a lot more love to S Mich in general. Remember, it ain't over til its over.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z NAM...I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge with this Clipper. Feel good that 2" is probably what I'll end up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Some light snow moving into NE IL...maybe pick up 0.5-1.0"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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