March 2024 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Roads we drove on this morning were like the lower right picture. 

[chescowxman]

The first 7 days of March have been the warmest start to March in 20 years (2004). The warmest start in March history across all available Chester County sites was 50 years ago back in 1974. We look to turn chillier with closer to normal temps over the weekend with temps remaining in the 40's with rain tomorrow into Saturday night. We warm again during the next week before a pattern change to colder than normal starting toward the end of next week. Chester County wide records for today: High 80 degrees at Glenmoore / Honey Brook and Coatesville (2000) / Low zero West Chester (2007) / Rain 2.96" Coatesville (1995) / Snow 10.7" Phoenixville (1941)

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Is it just me or did the models bust on the snow forecasts in NE and from what it looks like OMA peeps?  17" tally and rising in North Platte...

A bit of a surprise snow this morning in Omaha… probably picked up an inch or two of snow here, nothing at all like what our friends out west are getting this morning however it’s nice to see at least some moisture here. Roads are mostly wet here, however the grass and rooftops are mostly covered.

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Roads we drove on this morning were like the lower right picture. 

I love surprise snow storms!!! Do you know what the highest total in NEB. was?? Have fun in the snow. Here in KC the drought is intensifying...we did have rain yesterday, but for my part of KC, it was an under achiever at only .29 inches. The NWS forecast was for 1-2 inches. Hopefully we get wet this month.

And, how much snow ended up falling at your place. I thought you were in the 1-3 inch forecast range. 

[MIKEKC]

On 3/7/2024 at 8:02 AM, Clinton said:

Just hope its wet.  Everyone around here could use a nice hay and corn crop after last year.

Hey Clinton, 

Dang it, the storm yesterday did not deliver the 1-2 inches we desperately needed. 43 straight days of almost no moisture put the north side of KC back in a moderate drought after all headlines were removed following the very wet Nov.-Jan. 20th period. Only .29 at my place. They did much better on the south side of the city, south of 70. 

Any thoughts on the second half of March. I see some flashing signs of potential damaging freezes. I say damaging as we have a lot of stuff blooming in KC right now. Maybe you or Tom can go in depth on a possible late season winter charge. What's you seeing??

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

I love surprise snow storms!!! Do you know what the highest total in NEB. was?? Have fun in the snow. Here in KC the drought is intensifying...we did have rain yesterday, but for my part of KC, it was an under achiever at only .29 inches. The NWS forecast was for 1-2 inches. Hopefully we get wet this month.

And, how much snow ended up falling at your place. I thought you were in the 1-3 inch forecast range. 

17.4” east of North Platte.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

I love surprise snow storms!!! Do you know what the highest total in NEB. was?? Have fun in the snow. Here in KC the drought is intensifying...we did have rain yesterday, but for my part of KC, it was an under achiever at only .29 inches. The NWS forecast was for 1-2 inches. Hopefully we get wet this month.

And, how much snow ended up falling at your place. I thought you were in the 1-3 inch forecast range. 

6-7” so far as snow continues. I was in the 1-3”, but amounts were bumped up this morning for additional 2-5”. Interstate still closed from Central Nebraska to the west. Most schools closed that weren’t already on Spring Break. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Hey Clinton, 

Dang it, the storm yesterday did not deliver the 1-2 inches we desperately needed. 43 straight days of almost no moisture put the north side of KC back in a moderate drought after all headlines were removed following the very wet Nov.-Jan. 20th period. Only .29 at my place. They did much better on the south side of the city, south of 70. 

Any thoughts on the second half of March. I see some flashing signs of potential damaging freezes. I say damaging as we have a lot of stuff blooming in KC right now. Maybe you or Tom can go in depth on a possible late season winter charge. What's you seeing??

The Euro weeklies got my attention and we have delayed putting fertilizer on our hay and pasture ground.  I would hate to see the grass and fruit trees get burnt by a frost. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Hawkeye]

I finished with a decent 0.53" of rain.  I'll certainly take it.

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I finished with a decent 0.53" of rain.  I'll certainly take it.

 

About  exactly  same here. Not as much as we hoped for. But my biggest  system  since late January. 

[Black Hole]

1.05" at my place for this storm cycle. That was pretty much right on target for expectations. We've got another warm up with some off and on storm chances starting late Tuesday. Definitely some signal in the extended for some pretty chilly air to spill south but snow is probably not going to occur given how late in the season it is. 

[Tom]

North Platte and W NE appear to be the winners...the epitome of an "I-80 Special" across the state of NE...I remember vividly driving through this region into rolling hills of NE CO back on NOV 1st, 2016....a day before the Cubbies won the World Series!  

[Clinton]

This mornings run of the Euro Control is trending wetter for next weeks storm system in the areas that need it.

Also the 0z run of the Euro Control brings the return of Winter at least for awhile.

[Tom]

I had a nice little storm that came down off the mountains last evening and produced a rainbow along with some real loud claps of thunder.  One of the bolts of lightning was very close to my place.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

North Platte and W NE appear to be the winners...the epitome of an "I-80 Special" across the state of NE...I remember vividly driving through this region into rolling hills of NE CO back on NOV 1st, 2016....a day before the Cubbies won the World Series!  

My measurements were spot on. I had 7”. This map shows me in the 6-8” yellow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Some history for eastern KY. 

[Jaycee_CHI]

So glad someone has started doing long range forecasts like this that aren’t just for winter!!  I’d actually have to agree with his selected areas, although I think more of North Central IL should be included too. 
 

The outbreak of February 27th had 10 tornadoes in the Chicago Metro alone. So crazy! The city has somewhat became a magnet for tornadoes the past few years. Hoping for another potent severe wx season, can’t wait to get some time-lapses and shutter-lightning pics

 

 

[Courtesy Barry Butler Photography]:

 

[Tom]

49 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

So glad someone has started doing long range forecasts like this that aren’t just for winter!!  I’d actually have to agree with his selected areas, although I think more of North Central IL should be included too. 
 

The outbreak of February 27th had 10 tornadoes in the Chicago Metro alone. So crazy! The city has somewhat became a magnet for tornadoes the past few years. Hoping for another potent severe wx season, can’t wait to get some time-lapses and shutter-lightning pics

 

 

[Courtesy Barry Butler Photography]:

 

Barry always snapped some phenomenal photos…looking forward to seeing some of your photos.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 47/30 there was 0.20” of rainfall and a trace of snowfall. The highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the W. There was 7% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 69 was set in 1894 and the record low of3 was set in 1972. The wettest was 0.68” that also had 2.9” of snowfall. The most snow on the ground was 16” in 2024. Last year had the record snow fall of 8.7” and the H/L was 37/29.

Along with the time change the weather also changed and for the 1st time this month there is a trace of snow on the ground. The overnight low was 29 and the current temperature is 30.

The 1st 9 days of March 2024 are now the 2nd warmest for the start of March. The mean here for the 1st 9 days of March was 46.0 that is 2nd only to March 1983 when the 1st 9 days had a mean of 48.5.

[Clinton]

Another nice warm up gets started today.  Models don't agree much on rain chances later in the week.

[jaster220]

On 3/7/2024 at 6:58 AM, Clinton said:

I'm not sure winter is done with you, models have been pretty consistent dropping a trough over the lakes and points east around the 18th.  Negative AO and NAO with a big dip in the EPO has the pattern looks ripe for some late season clippers, despite the MJO moving through the warm phases.

Winter is back, just for the weekend tho. Looks pretty much like at my place this first morning of EDT. Blustery WC of 11F

With piles and drifts melted-off, I do not foresee any sustained winter. Not ruling out random snow hits til late April up here ofc. Case in point, temps rebound here to above 60F most of the week. 

On 3/7/2024 at 7:57 AM, Tom said:

Come on down!   The ridge is going to build in well timed for this weekend (Nascar Race) and for the better part of the 2nd half of March from all indications.  Winter may return in your area when its not welcomed!

Hopefully, for not too long if/when it does. Thanks for the invite to AZ. Really like to get out there some time, just not going to be now unfortunately. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Winter is back, just for the weekend tho. Looks pretty much like at my place this first morning of EDT. Blustery WC of 11F

With piles and drifts melted-off, I do not foresee any sustained winter. Not ruling out random snow hits til late April up here ofc. Case in point, temps rebound here to above 60F most of the week. 

Hopefully, for not too long if/when it does. Thanks for the invite to AZ. Really like to get out there some time, just not going to be now unfortunately. 

Anytime my friend...as for Winter returning, its the typical "Yo-Yo" time of year around the GL"s region.  If you believe the Euro Op, it drops a late season Polar Vortex eerily close by late in the run!  

It's been a common theme for this year's LRC...."The Year of the Omega Block"...nasty looking PAC NW Block to develop as the -EPO tanks and the trough over the 4 corners retrogrades into my area.  Crazy pattern developing late week.

 

[Tom]

@MIKEKCand the KC boys & gals...nasty looking severe wx threat shaping up near your area and parts of the S MW/Lower lakes.  I can see this similar storm track/pattern repeating well into May/June. 

0z Euro...nasty looking bowed line...

[Andie]

A chilly 46 this morning.   
High expected at 62.  No rain  but Thursday brings a good chance. 

[jaster220]

On 3/8/2024 at 7:27 AM, westMJim said:

I would not be surprised if April, May and June are all cooler than average. In 1983 a winter with a strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina April, May and June were all below average. 

At some point it must've flipped warm tho. I remember very warm Lake Michigan water that August all the way north of Petoskey, and that takes some doing. For the spring months, I do remember the 10" snowstorm in Flint on or about the equinox in March. After that I draw a blank until August, lol

[jaster220]

Going to be another astounding flip between today and 24 hrs later per my local forecast:

Winter coat today...spring jacket tomorrow. Have to keep 'em both at hand lately, lol

 

[Minny_Weather]

Definitely seeing daily fire risk here now. And no moisture in sight, still.

But hey, at least I can always count on the GFS to show a massive rager of a storm 2 weeks out!

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Definitely seeing daily fire risk here now. And no moisture in sight, still.

But hey, at least I can always count on the GFS to show a massive rager of a storm 2 weeks out!

Always just 2 weeks away. Fire danger is gonna get out of hand here. Severe drought category now

[hawkstwelve]

Looking forward to the mid 70s tomorrow, which is our average high in late May. The recent warmer weather has made me even more ready to turn the page on snow and look forward to spring and thunderstorm season. Unfortunately, this next bout of late spring warmth looks to be relatively short-lived as we head back down into the 40s after next weekend, which is still slightly above average for this time of year. Also looking increasingly dry with ensembles only showing a 10-20% chance for > 0.5 inch of rain. 

To sum all that up: the weather looks pretty dang boring for the foreseeable future.

[Clinton]

Major changes in the long range showing up on both the 0z runs of the GFS and the Euro Control starting on the 22nd.  This is looking more like an early Spring artic outbreak that has legs to last through the end of the month at least.  Cooler than average temps may return as early as St. Patrick's Day as the ridge builds in the west and the EPO complete tanks.

Snow for some

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 39/29 there was a trace of snowfall. The sun was out 30% of the time the highest wind gust was 36 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 71 was set in 1973 and 1971 the record low of 1 was set in 1895. The most rainfall of 0.80” fell in 2010 the most snowfall was 6.7” in 1950 the most on the ground was 13” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 38/22 and there was 2” of snow on the ground. It is much colder here in MBY then the official reading at the airport. At GRR it is 31 while here in my yard I only have 22.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1948: Arctic air prevails with high temperatures in the teens and low temperatures near zero. Muskegon sets a record low of 2 degrees.

 1946, the last snowfall of the 1946 season was recorded in Detroit and stands as the earliest date for the last snowfall in spring.

Across the USA

1888, The Great Blizzard of 1888 paralyzed the east coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine on March 11 through the 14^th. The blizzard dumped as much as 55 inches of snow in some areas, and snowdrifts of 30 to 40 feet were reported. An estimated 400 people died from this blizzard.

1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. Seventeen people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

 

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Major changes in the long range showing up on both the 0z runs of the GFS and the Euro Control starting on the 22nd.  This is looking more like an early Spring artic outbreak that has legs to last through the end of the month at least.  Cooler than average temps may return as early as St. Patrick's Day as the ridge builds in the west and the EPO complete tanks.

Snow for some

OH NO! I knew it, with a very warm FEB and start to March, we are in full bloom in KC. Hoping the damaging cold stays north of here. 

[chescowxman]

Along with our 0.3" of snow last evening was our first below freezing temperature since March 1st. Wind advisory remains in effect till 8pm tonight. Near normal temps today before a nice warming trend starts tomorrow. Some southern parts of Chesco could even touch 70 degrees by Thursday. Next week will be quite a bit cooler.
County wide records for today: High 82 West Chester (2016) / Low 6 Phoenixville (1960) / Rain 2.60" Glenmoore (2011) / Snow 4.5" West Grove (1934)

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Major changes in the long range showing up on both the 0z runs of the GFS and the Euro Control starting on the 22nd.  This is looking more like an early Spring artic outbreak that has legs to last through the end of the month at least.  Cooler than average temps may return as early as St. Patrick's Day as the ridge builds in the west and the EPO complete tanks.

Snow for some

Some late season #StatPaddingSnow....muj bueno for some!

[Tom]

I was out and about in Old Town Scottsdale yesterday afternoon and the weather was just perfect.  Sunny skies, nice breeze and temp near 80F...Top Notch March weather for the valley.  Carbon Copy the next couple days before the "Cutoff Low is a Weatherman' Woe" tracks into the 4 corners.  It's fun tracking these type of storms.  Usually, the foothills of CO get smashed and also Tao's Ski resort in N NM.

[Hoosier]

The period from January 20 to March 10 produced the 2nd lowest snowfall amount on record for Chicago.  Only 1.2" fell during that time.  The only other year with less during that stretch was not that long ago in 2017, when a mere 0.3" fell.

[westMJim]

On 3/10/2024 at 12:16 PM, jaster220 said:

At some point it must've flipped warm tho. I remember very warm Lake Michigan water that August all the way north of Petoskey, and that takes some doing. For the spring months, I do remember the 10" snowstorm in Flint on or about the equinox in March. After that I draw a blank until August, lol

In 1983 after a warm start to March, at Grand Rapids April had a departure from average of -5.0, May -6.5, June -1.3, July+1.9, August +1.1 and September -1.1. At Green Bay April had a departure of -3.8, May-7.7, June-1.9, July +2.1, August +2.1 and September -1.2. I am not sure what the water temperatures on Lake Michigan were that year. And this site does not go back that far.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistics/average-surface-water-temperature-glsea/

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is... Interesting for here. Of course the NAM should never be trusted at the very end of its run.