March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's amazing how smoky it is here now. Growing up here there was NEVER any smoke at all I  the summers and even the hot summers. 

Part of there not being wildfire smoke back in the day was based on fire suppression for nearly a century though. Now that’s caught up with us. We shouldn’t have suppressed what is unfortunately a natural process. Wildfires have been here long before we were here…since we suppressed the problem for so long now forests are primed to burn. Big problem that coincides with our warming/drying summer climate. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Part of there not being wildfire smoke back in the day was based on fire suppression for nearly a century though. Now that’s caught up with us. We shouldn’t have suppressed what is unfortunately a natural process. Wildfires have been here long before we were here…since we suppressed the problem for so long now forests are primed to burn. Big problem that coincides with our warming/drying summer climate. 

We have talked about this a million times as well... but I think if we could be transported back to the mid 1800s we would be shocked at how smoky it was when western wildfires were allowed to burn unabated.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah…but since a hot summer with little rainfall and pretty much zero marine layer has become the norm lately it puts a little more pressure on the springtime. Weren’t you the one saying we would never see a summer even as cool as 2019 ever again?

At any rate zapping our recently recovered snowpack by the second half of March isn’t going to do us a whole lot of good regardless of what happens later on.

Lol no I was saying 2011. Something like 2019 I feel like is the best we can do nowadays. Hopefully I’m wrong about that though. All I’m saying is an early March warm spell while not ideal for mountain snowpack does not mean we’re setting the stage for a devastating fire season. What happens later on will determine that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Part of there not being wildfire smoke back in the day was based on fire suppression for nearly a century though. Now that’s caught up with us. We shouldn’t have suppressed what is unfortunately a natural process. Wildfires have been here long before we were here…since we suppressed the problem for so long now forests are primed to burn. Big problem that coincides with our warming/drying summer climate. 

Problem is that clear cuts and the undergrowth that develops under these young forests isn't natural so when a wildfire starts they have more fuel at ground level than they would under a old growth forest. The canopy was so high in those old growth forests that the fires had a harder time spreading. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol no I was saying 2011. Something like 2019 I feel like is the best we can do nowadays. Hopefully I’m wrong about that though. All I’m saying is an early March warm spell while not ideal for mountain snowpack does not mean we’re setting the stage for a devastating fire season. What happens later on will determine that. 

I mean yeah, the point that we can’t predict the details of the weather months it advance seems like sort of a no brainer. But given how most late springs and summers have gone lately, I think it would be understandable why a death ridge in late March would have people feeling nervous. It’s not necessarily a damning sign, but it’s not a great sign either.

I do get that the hyperbolic stuff from Tiger about the I-5 corridor burning down does a pretty good job of draining any credibility from this side of the argument, or at least creating a good straw man. But most folks have more nuanced views of course.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Pivotal added a bunch of new high res models. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Pivotal added a bunch of new high res models. 

About time…

One thing about our last ALERT period in January was that it felt like we basically had one or maybe two models to dissect as that event approached. Like living in the dark ages.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe 70 by next weekend per 12Z ECMWF.  

[iFred]

2 hours ago, westcoastexpat said:

How was the 98-99 winter for the PNW?

HAHAHA JIM SO STUPID HAHA YOU GOT HIM AGAIN HAHA

[Cascadia_Wx]

I love how PDX can spend less than 5 minutes at 49 degrees yesterday and somehow score a 50, but then spend hours at 30 degrees this morning and never even fall to 29.

At least VUO continues to put up decent numbers. Low of 26 there after a 49/24 day yesterday.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe 70 by next weekend per 12Z ECMWF.  

This is going to be like last year where the mountains had a June look going into May.

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe 70 by next weekend per 12Z ECMWF.  

Next weekend should be great. Hoping to Spring ski one day and golf for the first time this season the other.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

This is going to be like last year where the mountains had a June look going into May.

At this point its just a fantasy forecast

[the_convergence_zone]

45 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Part of there not being wildfire smoke back in the day was based on fire suppression for nearly a century though. Now that’s caught up with us. We shouldn’t have suppressed what is unfortunately a natural process. Wildfires have been here long before we were here…since we suppressed the problem for so long now forests are primed to burn. Big problem that coincides with our warming/drying summer climate. 

Unfortunately, we're never going to let wildfires burn naturally, other than maybe a few tiny ones that are deep in the heart of wilderness areas. Even the tiniest possibility that they could threaten commercial logging lands or a single building is enough to send out the battalion of firefighters. 

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

At this point its just a fantasy forecast

Would be kinda fun to do a Fantasy League for model performance. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Unfortunately, we're never going to let wildfires burn naturally, other than maybe a few tiny ones that are deep in the heart of wilderness areas. Even the tiniest possibility that they could threaten commercial logging lands or a single building is enough to send out the battalion of firefighters. 

 

We have let absolutely massive fires burn in wilderness areas the last several years. There is pretty much no major Cascades wilderness area south of Snoqualmie pass that hasn’t been scarred by major wildfire in that time. Also, the forest service has a pretty robust controlled burn program in place. I was on one near Trout Lake just last October. There is a large effort to bring natural fire back to the ecosystem, especially east of the crest. Our long, warm and dry springs and summers are messing that up though. Less of a good window for controlled burns even.

[Front Ranger]

As others have said, spring weather is much less consequential to the fire season than the summer weather. 2016 is another good example: very dry April/May, but the fire season wasn't nearly as bad as many other years the past decade.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As others have said, spring weather is much less consequential to the fire season than the summer weather. 2016 is another good example: very dry April/May, but the fire season wasn't nearly as bad as many other years the past decade.

I find it amusing how there are so many posts acting like anyone has said otherwise. Of course, spring weather being less consequential overall doesn’t equate to it meaning nothing. Especially with our summers being so dependably hot and dry lately. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I find it amusing how there are so many posts acting like anyone has said otherwise. Of course, spring weather being less consequential overall doesn’t equate to it meaning nothing. Especially with our summers being so dependably hot and dry lately. 

The classes i went to last summer talking about the Okanogan stressed how important the snow pack was going into spring because most fires up there spread on the ground and underbrush so a slow melt of the snowpack through April and may is very important. That wildfire 2 years ago opened my eyes and i wanted to learn more. At one point it was the largest wildfire in the lower 48.  Keeping the underbrush down and trimmed is huge, we found a program where the forest service will pay us the clean our own property. they come out and look at the proposed area, we do the clean up and they come out and inspect and send the check. They pay 20 per hr for just a grunt and 50 per hr to a person running a saw. Crazy there are programs like that.

[the_convergence_zone]

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We have let absolutely massive fires burn in wilderness areas the last several years. There is pretty much no major Cascades wilderness area south of Snoqualmie pass that hasn’t been scarred by major wildfire in that time. Also, the forest service has a pretty robust controlled burn program in place. I was on one near Trout Lake just last October. There is a large effort to bring natural fire back to the ecosystem, especially east of the crest. Our long, warm and dry springs and summers are messing that up though. Less of a good window for controlled burns even.

Do you have an example of one of these massive fires that we let burn? From my perusing of inciweb it seems like they always have at least some resources on them and there is always an effort to get them contained to at least some extent. I only recall seeing small ones in late season being left alone entirely. Fires like Norse Peak burned a ton of wilderness but they were still working that fire like crazy. Happy to be proven wrong on that one. 

Good to know about the controlled burns as well as the underbrush program that @MR.SNOWMIZER is describing. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

19 hours ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

March 25-29 - we’ll be on the north coast with the fam  

I don’t even need heat, just some nice dry days 

Nice! I would always go to the Coast during my spring breaks. My favorite would have to be when we went to Pacific City. Hoping it’s sunny for you all that week.  

[the_convergence_zone]

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As others have said, spring weather is much less consequential to the fire season than the summer weather. 2016 is another good example: very dry April/May, but the fire season wasn't nearly as bad as many other years the past decade.

The dice was loaded that year but sometimes the weather ends up cooperating. The odds were against that being a low fire year.

[T-Town]

Beautiful frosty morning here with a low of 29.5. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The classes i went to last summer talking about the Okanogan stressed how important the snow pack was going into spring because most fires up there spread on the ground and underbrush so a slow melt of the snowpack through April and may is very important. That wildfire 2 years ago opened my eyes and i wanted to learn more. At one point it was the largest wildfire in the lower 48.  Keeping the underbrush down and trimmed is huge, we found a program where the forest service will pay us the clean our own property. they come out and look at the proposed area, we do the clean up and they come out and inspect and send the check. They pay 20 per hr for just a grunt and 50 per hr to a person running a saw. Crazy there are programs like that.

They did this as far back as 2001, at least on the state level. Myself and a few others did some work up around my boss’ property at Alta Lake and there was reimbursement through DNR if I recall correctly. It went to my boss but he paid it forward. Worked out pretty well since that fire season took off like wildfire in August. All it took was one nocturnal dry lightning event that rolled up the valley and it seemed like the whole county was in flames.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is fairly stable with the ridge... some signs of weakening towards the end but actually less of that than the last couple of runs.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Do you have an example of one of these massive fires that we let burn? From my perusing of inciweb it seems like they always have at least some resources on them and there is always an effort to get them contained to at least some extent. I only recall seeing small ones in late season being left alone entirely. Fires like Norse Peak burned a ton of wilderness but they were still working that fire like crazy. Happy to be proven wrong on that one. 

Good to know about the controlled burns as well as the underbrush program that @MR.SNOWMIZER is describing. 

I mean of course there will be some resources dispatched at the perimeters of these fires where they stand to encounter major highways or structures.  Still the ones that start deep within wilderness areas like Soda Springs in 2021 or even the Opal Lake fire in 2020 were much allowed to burn through up to tens of thousands of acres of wilderness beforehand. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The dice was loaded that year but sometimes the weather ends up cooperating. The odds were against that being a low fire year.

That’s kind of been my whole point this morning. Of course there’s a chance that a cool and wet summer pattern can put a damper on a bad fire season, but those have become so rare these days it naturally puts more pressure on the spring time, since that is the season when the dice are loaded.

[Timmy Supercell]

30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As others have said, spring weather is much less consequential to the fire season than the summer weather. 2016 is another good example: very dry April/May, but the fire season wasn't nearly as bad as many other years the past decade.

Coming off of the show that was 2015, it was a much better year. There was a little smoke in August but went most of that summer free of smoke on the east sides. I wonder how often they have years like 2018 now, with seemingly longer stretches of dry in that area in the last several years.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile, what an absolutely beautiful morning out. Currently mostly sunny and a crisp 43 with scenic puffy clouds around. Still had some frost in the shade up until about a half hour ago.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WOW 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Up to 41 degrees now from our 7:30am low of 0.4 degrees, today should get in the upper 40s-low 50s. Beautiful day, but unfortunately the past 2 days of warm March sun has destroyed our 2 feet of snow, only 11.5" remains.

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean yeah, the point that we can’t predict the details of the weather months it advance seems like sort of a no brainer. But given how most late springs and summers have gone lately, I think it would be understandable why a death ridge in late March would have people feeling nervous. It’s not necessarily a damning sign, but it’s not a great sign either.

I do get that the hyperbolic stuff from Tiger about the I-5 corridor burning down does a pretty good job of draining any credibility from this side of the argument, or at least creating a good straw man. But most folks have more nuanced views of course.

Yeah, I get what you mean about it being worrisome based off of some recent lead ups to hot summers. If it’s just the beginning of an overall warm/dry spring with much warmer than normal temperatures it could definitely be a problem. Atleast we have gotten some mountain snows in the last couple weeks. I’m sure we will get atleast one or two more mountain snow patterns before we get into the heart of the warm season. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW 

Gorgeous. I’ll be visiting my Dad in Port Townsend in a few weeks, hope to make a trip up there.

I’m glad the Olympics will be getting so much more this weekend and early next week too.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, I get what you mean about it being worrisome based off of some recent lead ups to hot summers. If it’s just the beginning of an overall warm/dry spring with much warmer than normal temperatures it could definitely be a problem. Atleast we have gotten some mountain snows in the last couple weeks. I’m sure we will get atleast one or two more mountain snow patterns before we get into the heart of the warm season. 

Thank you for understanding where I’m coming from. It goes a long ways.

[snow_wizard]

The first week of March is going to be up there with the big boys.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The first week of March is going to be up there with the big boys.

 

Makes you wonder how this year would look with the same infostructures as the 50's and 60's had. More pavement, buildings and planes has had to of warmed that sensor some.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The first week of March is going to be up there with the big boys.

 

1951 and 1955 are insanely cold, I didn't know Seattle could be that cold in early March.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The first week of March is going to be up there with the big boys.

 

PDX is rounding out the top 10 through the 6th, but they could drop a bit more ASSUMING today doesn’t get much above 50 (PDX says hold my IPA )

Im surprised 2019 doesn’t make a bigger showing up there.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, I get what you mean about it being worrisome based off of some recent lead ups to hot summers. If it’s just the beginning of an overall warm/dry spring with much warmer than normal temperatures it could definitely be a problem. Atleast we have gotten some mountain snows in the last couple weeks. I’m sure we will get atleast one or two more mountain snow patterns before we get into the heart of the warm season. 

I totally understand that point as well.   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

1951 and 1955 are insanely cold, I didn't know Seattle could be that cold in early March.

It can be.  There are a couple from the 19th century that were like that too.