March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and sunny.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So you moved to the foothills of one of the rainiest mountain ranges in the lower 48, at close to 49 degrees latitude?

Yes, one located on the edge of the rain shadow. Best of both worlds. Just because I love sun doesn't mean I don't like snow. Snow is great from November to Feb. When the clocks change I am ready for sun. 

I know it is hard to picture loving two extremes in the political climate of today, but people like me do exist. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Yes, one located on the edge of the rain shadow. Best of both worlds. Just because I love sun doesn't mean I don't like snow. Snow is great from November to Feb. When the clocks change I am ready for sun. 

I know it is hard to picture loving two extremes in the political climate of today, but people like me do exist. 

Sounds like Colorado might have been a better fit. Or maybe somewhere high up in Sierras.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The climate here is perfect in my book. Shoulder seasons provide storms and rain, summer is widespread sun without humidity and not that hot compared to the south, and winter provides ample snow chances. I love it. 

I understand this upcoming ridge is a little early and if it is prolonged I'll start to long for rain, but that doesn't mean I won't eat up the beautiful days. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Yes, one located on the edge of the rain shadow. Best of both worlds. Just because I love sun doesn't mean I don't like snow. Snow is great from November to Feb. When the clocks change I am ready for sun. 

I know it is hard to picture loving two extremes in the political climate of today, but people like me do exist. 

Jesse is on the transplant warpath again.   Its a never-ending obsession of his going back to way before your time here.   What he never takes in account is that transplants CHOSE to live here.   Natives had no choice.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The climate here is perfect in my book. Shoulder seasons provide storms and rain, summer is widespread sun without humidity and not that hot compared to the south, and winter provides ample snow chances. I love it. 

I understand this upcoming ridge is a little early and if it is prolonged I'll start to long for rain, but that doesn't mean I won't eat up the beautiful days. 

I’ll be sure to remember this if this warm season deviates at all from the 2013-23 norm.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Jesse is on the transplant warpath again.   Its a never-ending obsession of his going back to way before your time here.   What he never takes in account is that transplants CHOSE to live here.   Natives had no choice.  

I'll take the bullets. I got my plot of land here and will keep it till I die. 

His worry about a grave summer isn't unfounded given the last decade here and an early ridge can bring PTSD, so I get it. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll be sure to remember this if this warm season deviates at all from the 2013-23 norm.

Given all the scientific data, it is likely the new norm. But you are spot on. A overly rainy cold summer would be a bummer and I'll take it on the chin if/when it happens. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'll take the bullets. I got my plot of land here and will keep it till I die. 

His worry about a grave summer isn't unfounded given the last decade here and an early ridge can bring PTSD, so I get it. 

Appreciate that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Given all the scientific data, it is likely the new norm. But you are spot on. A overly rainy cold summer would be a bummer and I'll take it on the chin if/when it happens. 

Scientific data. Sounds impressive. Could you link me some of these studies?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Given all the scientific data, it is likely the new norm. But you are spot on. A overly rainy cold summer would be a bummer and I'll take it on the chin if/when it happens. 

Exactly... just deal with it as it comes.   No idea why he has to obsess about your reaction to a cloudy and cooler summer when it happens.   It is what is.    Its a really strange obsession.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Scientific data. Sounds impressive. Could you link me some of these studies?

I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole with you, but I am sure you have seen the various plots of global temp and sea surface temps over the last 2 decades. Not hard to see a trend. Regardless of the "cause". 

Could that revert back to a 100 year norm at some point, sure. But it is seeming increasingly unlikely each year. Unless of course Yellowstone blows up. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly... just deal with it as it comes.   No idea why he has to obsess about your reaction to a cloudy and cooler summer when it happens.   It is what is.    Its a really strange obsession.

No biggie. He will deserve the win. It will be nice to know someone is happy when I am not. Keeping things in perspective keeps one from going crazy. 

I look forward to him posting memes of me being sad. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole with you, but I am sure you have seen the various plots of global temp and sea surface temps over the last 2 decades. Not hard to see a trend. Regardless of the "cause". 

Could that revert back to a 100 year norm at some point, sure. But it is seeming increasingly unlikely each year. Unless of course Yellowstone blows up. 

Yeah, global temps surface temps and SSTs are rising. That doesn’t mean there aren’t other oscillations that could snap back at some point and push our summers in the other direction, at least for a little while. That’s a pretty big ocean to our west.

[MossMan]

Another snowy morning 5yrs ago today! 

[Front Ranger]

13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The Seattle city records show 81 on March 11, 1892.  The pre 1894 records aren't available online for some reason, but I have them.

That's nuts.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No biggie. He will deserve the win. It will be nice to know someone is happy when I am not. Keeping things in perspective keeps one from going crazy. 

I look forward to him posting memes of me being sad. 

Such a pointless discussion... always down the transplant path like it matters.   Who gives a flying crap where you were born?  We are all just passengers spinning around this rock orbiting the sun for few brief moments.   He acts like he owns this part of the planet and didn't approve your entrance.   Exhausting way to view the world.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

That's nuts.

When heat records get that old and anomalous, I start wondering about instrument placement and sheltering.

[Cascadia_Wx]

For how fast the Euro comes out these days, it seems to take longer than ever for the spaghetti charts to update. At least on the WeinerSchnitzel page.

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I really don’t want to write a manifesto on my preferences every other day, but I love spring and summer. It would just be nice not to sit under a stagnant ridge all warm season and choke on smoke and drought. I’m sure you already know I feel this way. It’s not an unreasonable desire. The 50s and rain all summer thing is just strawman crap  

The upcoming ridge will be fine I’m sure, and despite all the mischaracterizations I will be out enjoying the weather just as much as anyone. It would be nice if it wasn’t a harbinger of our warm season pattern, though. Although judging by how things have gone in recent years, it may be.

If there is a clean Niña transition this summer it probably isn’t a harbinger of anything. But a messy/unbalanced transition (or failed transition) likely results in another warm to hot summer.

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  Justin wasn't kidding about spring 1885.  In Tacoma the 2 month total for March and April was 1.48"  

I assume a super smoky summer followed?1?

[TT-SEA]

EPS mean shows pretty strong signal for cold in central and eastern Canada into the Midwest and NE at 15 days out.  I am sure there are a few rogue members to highlight as there always is... but the big picture looks pretty obvious.

 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Such a pointless discussion... always down the transplant path like it matters.   Who gives a flying crap where you were born?  We are all just passengers spinning around this rock orbiting the sun for few brief moments.   He acts like he owns this part of the planet and didn't approve your entrance.   Exhausting way to view the world.  

The one thing he can’t get me on lol! 47yrs and counting living in northern Snohomish Co! I love this climate, the only thing that gets me is when we are stuck in the no man’s land stalled warm front drizzle that lasts for weeks at a time it feels like when it happens. I do want to own a second place someday east of the cascades to go and enjoy the low humidity heat, or the snowy cold when we are in the dull-drums over here. 

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

GFS is still a turd.  Americans are clueless apparently

NOAA should sell the GFS to IBM or something. Free/public access to data is nice in theory, but there’s zero chance any NCEP project will compete with private sector juggernauts like the ECMWF.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The one thing he can’t get me on lol! 47yrs and counting living in northern Snohomish Co! I love this climate, the only thing that gets me is when we are stuck in the no man’s land stalled warm front drizzle that lasts for weeks at a time it feels like when it happens. I do want to own a second place someday east of the cascades to go and enjoy the low humidity heat, or the snowy cold when we are in the dull-drums over here. 

47 years in 1 climate sounds like a nightmare. I hope I’m not stuck here that long.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The one thing he can’t get me on lol! 47yrs and counting living in northern Snohomish Co! I love this climate, the only thing that gets me is when we are stuck in the no man’s land stalled warm front drizzle that lasts for weeks at a time it feels like when it happens. I do want to own a second place someday east of the cascades to go and enjoy the low humidity heat, or the snowy cold when we are in the dull-drums over here. 

A native who doesn't enjoy all of our climo weather... go figure!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

47 years in 1 climate sounds like a nightmare. I hope I’m not stuck here that long.

If I was in your climate I would probably want to escape at all cost!

[TT-SEA]

54 in North Bend... finally a climo kind of day.  

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Given all the scientific data, it is likely the new norm. But you are spot on. A overly rainy cold summer would be a bummer and I'll take it on the chin if/when it happens. 

What data is that?

Plenty of evidence it’s a quasi-stable mode of inter/intra-decadal variability, sure, but probably not a “new normal”. Though it sure can feel like it while it’s happening.

Imagine how people felt during the 1930s dustbowl. Summer after summer after summer of unprecedented heat and dryness that seemed to build on itself. Refused to abate until the default IPWP/z-circulation finally changed in the 1940s. Then suddenly, it was over!

[DeepFriedEgg]

60 burger looks likely today IMBY

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

If I was in your climate I would probably want to escape at all cost!

Me too. I got tired of all the sunny dry weather in the Southwest and made it a goal to get to the Northwest when I was old enough to leave home.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful day so far. Partly cloudy and up to 49 after a low of 29.

[ShawniganLake]

51 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'll take the bullets. I got my plot of land here and will keep it till I die. 

His worry about a grave summer isn't unfounded given the last decade here and an early ridge can bring PTSD, so I get it. 

I have to say your plot of land looks amazing.  What a location and what a view.  I would never give that up either. 

[the_convergence_zone]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

What data is that?

Plenty of evidence it’s a quasi-stable mode of inter/intra-decadal variability, sure, but probably not a “new normal”. Though it sure can feel like it while it’s happening.

Imagine how people felt during the 1930s dustbowl. Summer after summer after summer of unprecedented heat and dryness that seemed to build on itself. Refused to abate until the default IPWP/z-circulation finally changed in the 1940s. Then suddenly, it was over!

There's a ton of evidence for positive feedbacks accelerating summer warming in this region. But the pace of warming over the past 10 years is pretty wild -- 1.5 C warmer than any previous decade (using upper-air obs which go back to the 60s, not sure how the 1930s obs compare). 

In my opinion, nobody knows how much we might fall back in a subsequent decade when there is a shift. Will we retain 0.5 C of summer warming? 0.75 C? 1.0 C? None at all? 

Or it could stay as warm as it has been or get even warmer. 

[BLI snowman]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS mean shows pretty strong signal for cold in central and eastern Canada into the Midwest and NE at 15 days out.  I am sure there are a few rogue members to highlight as there always is... but the big picture looks pretty obvious.

 

Been a truly neverending torch in that region. Makes sense.

[the_convergence_zone]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

47 years in 1 climate sounds like a nightmare. I hope I’m not stuck here that long.

The PNW has a pretty awesome climate but the one cool thing we lack is severe thunderstorms. Like one that produces hundreds or thousands of lightning strikes instead of a half dozen. 

[westcoastexpat]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS mean shows pretty strong signal for cold in central and eastern Canada into the Midwest and NE at 15 days out.  I am sure there are a few rogue members to highlight as there always is... but the big picture looks pretty obvious.

 

Definitely starting to look like potentially 7+ days of mid to upper 60s are on the table

[Meatyorologist]

Hey @Phil... How's that ENSO transition looking? Any thoughts, any updates? Looking clean or messy thus far?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

What data is that?

Plenty of evidence it’s a quasi-stable mode of inter/intra-decadal variability, sure, but probably not a “new normal”. Though it sure can feel like it while it’s happening.

Imagine how people felt during the 1930s dustbowl. Summer after summer after summer of unprecedented heat and dryness that seemed to build on itself. Refused to abate until the default IPWP/z-circulation finally changed in the 1940s. Then suddenly, it was over!

Dustbowl was largely man-made no? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely starting to look like potentially 7+ days of mid to upper 60s are on the table

Wow much worse than i though. Yuck.