April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, ChrisEl Elyon said:

Interesting View from Eric Snodgrass 

https://youtu.be/UjOA_iTnfP0?feature=shared

His analogs for May are..

Somehow he has 1969 and 1987 (2nd year niños) in there but leaves out closer matches like 2010? I get it’s a subseasonal analog pool but still can’t quite wrap my head around that.

Edit: he does have 2010 in there (I missed it) but a good number of those years shouldn’t be included at all IMO.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, ChrisEl Elyon said:

Interesting View from Eric Snodgrass 

https://youtu.be/UjOA_iTnfP0?feature=shared

He says drier in the West but that is not a problem because that area needs to dry out a bit.   

[MossMan]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heading out to appalachia for a bachelor party. Will do my very best not to drunk-post this weekend but make no promises.  

[bainbridgekid]

GFS shows one of the most impressive daytime temp crashes I've ever seen tomorrow. From 71 at 2pm to 49 at 5pm in Tacoma.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

GFS shows one of the most impressive daytime temp crashes I've ever seen tomorrow. From 70 at 2pm to 49 at 5pm in Everett.

 

ECMWF shows 71 to 58 at SEA between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF also shows Sunday being fairly sunny and around 60 at SEA so not a bad day after the crash.

And then mostly sunny on Monday as well.  

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows 71 to 58 at SEA between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

It delays the rain a couple hours behind the GFS. Still drops to 48 by 8pm, so still an impressive crash.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It delays the rain a couple hours behind the GFS. Still drops to 48 by 8pm, so still an impressive crash.

Yeah... its going to be quite a change from early afternoon to evening.    Pretty unusual.  

[YahRaEl]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its going to be quite a change from early afternoon to evening.    Pretty unusual.  

Wonder if it might trigger thunderstorms for some areas?

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its going to be quite a change from early afternoon to evening.    Pretty unusual.  

I'll be in Whistler and it's supposed to go from near 60 Saturday afternoon to snow near the village Saturday night. Up the hill should go from near 50 to seeing several inches of snow in a few hours.

[Phil]

Just below the cloud deck here driving thru Hancock.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just below the cloud deck here driving thru Hancock.

That is not in the mountains... only at 564 ft in elevation.    The leaf out there is behind here which is surprising because I think its been much warmer there.   But it looks like that is quite a bit north of DC so maybe not as warm.  

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is not in the mountains... only at 564 ft in elevation.    The leaf out there is behind here which is surprising because I think it’s been much warmer there.   But it looks like that is quite a bit north of DC so maybe not as warm.  

That pic was at ~ 1200ft. Technically we’d just passed Hancock. Can’t see the terrain because it’s in the cloud deck.

But definitely at least 2 weeks behind DC, probably more. Took this yesterday, foliage has been emerging quite rapidly.

  
 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Stayed windy all night here which is unusual for this time of year. Made for a very mild low of 52. Warmest of the year so far.

Glad that front is coming through tomorrow because this ridging is starting to get stale.

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z EPS looked pretty good overall. Would be nice if it would trend a little wetter.

 

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stayed windy all night here which is unusual for this time of year. Made for a very mild low of 52. Warmest of the year so far.

Glad that front is coming through tomorrow because this ridging is starting to get stale.

The gusty winds died off here but we kept enough that it only dropped to 45. Already up to 54 this morning. 

[MossMan]

Looks like a dangerous marine blast incoming for tomorrow! Stock up now!! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Hello Friday... going to be a spectacular day.

I did a Jesse react, since he has you blocked. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Extremely windy out there. Gusts 35-40. Feels chilly too with a temp of 58 and DPs in the 20s.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Looks like a dangerous marine blast incoming for tomorrow! Stock up now!! 

When is the wind supposed to hit? I gotta take the edmonds ferry around 5:30 pm

[Phishy Wx]

breezy here too but not super windy yet

[Front Ranger]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

16/17 was full blown niño-costero by Feb. Calling that winter a niña borders on criminal.

Nothing before February is winter!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit drier than its 00Z run.  

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I can post again!  My account got messed up big time for some reason.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit drier than its 00Z run.  

Pretty enjoyable pattern overall.  Some places have actually chalked up three consecutive freezing mins in spite of the warm days.  IMBY I had two which is only the second time this century I've seen back to back freezing mins after April 15.  Going forward things look kind of similar although not quite as cold with the nights.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like I can post again!  My account got messed up big time for some reason.

Welcome back!  

We just thought you were on warm season hiatus.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like I can post again!  My account got messed up big time for some reason.

Hopefully y'all can be here through the offseason this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 4/16/2024 at 1:58 PM, Omegaraptor said:

Dubai just got 5” of rain in one day!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13314921/amp/dubai-influencers-stranded-flooding-uae-airport.html

 

On 4/16/2024 at 6:35 PM, Phil said:

Almost 2 years worth of rain in Dubai today.

Imagine if North Bend saw 200” of rain in a day.

 

 

On 4/17/2024 at 9:38 AM, Phil said:

That may have added to it, but the setup was ripe to produce heavy rainfall regardless.

I’ve generally been unimpressed w/rt evidence of effectiveness of cloud seeding. Seems to make more of a difference in marginal situations as opposed to setups ripe for deep convection and heavy rain.

Just saw the radar loop. That’s as impressive as it gets. I saw reports of over 6 inches. Looks like the Dubai government said there wasn’t any cloud seeding missions during the storm. They have done it in the past though. I’m not a fan of cloud seeding or any other weather intervention done by man. We need to let Mother Nature run its course. 

“DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The National Center of Meteorology, a government task force responsible for cloud seeding missions in the United Arab Emirates, said it had not carried out the weather modification technique in the run-up to the heavy storms that caused flooding in places like Dubai.

The organization told CNBC that it did not dispatch pilots for seeding operations before or during the storm that struck the UAE on Tuesday.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna148263

[Deweydog]

16 years ago RIGHT NOW a graupel storm of EPIC proportion was about to decend upon those of us residing in Clark County. Hard to believe this snow pellet party is officially old enough to drive!

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

16 years ago RIGHT NOW a graupel storm of EPIC proportion was about to decend upon those of us residing in Clark County. Hard to believe this snow pellet party is officially old enough to drive!

And 16 years ago yesterday I believe Everett got 7” of snow from a CZ.

[the_convergence_zone]

38 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

 

Just saw the radar loop. That’s as impressive as it gets. I saw reports of over 6 inches. Looks like the Dubai government said there wasn’t any cloud seeding missions during the storm. They have done it in the past though. I’m not a fan of cloud seeding or any other weather intervention done by man. We need to let Mother Nature run its course. 

“DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The National Center of Meteorology, a government task force responsible for cloud seeding missions in the United Arab Emirates, said it had not carried out the weather modification technique in the run-up to the heavy storms that caused flooding in places like Dubai.

The organization told CNBC that it did not dispatch pilots for seeding operations before or during the storm that struck the UAE on Tuesday.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna148263

Cloud seeding is a form of public relations to say “at least we’re trying” to end droughts. Throwing some silver iodide in a cloud isn’t going to do anything to a storm that is large enough to produce appreciable precipitation. It might cause a few sprinkles from a cumulus cloud that otherwise wouldn’t have rained. There are also legal ramifications since it had been argued that cloud seeding is a form of theft — you are stealing the water from areas downstream of where you seeded. 

The ironic thing is that project Stormfury got axed in the late 60s after they seeded a hurricane and it happened to make a left turn to the Eastern seaboard shortly thereafter. It would be funny if this makes them think twice about seeding in the UAE, although it’s a bummer that they didn’t seed this storm (or at least they claim to have not seeded it LOL). 

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, ChrisEl Elyon said:

Wonder if it might trigger thunderstorms for some areas?

Not enough instability. If the trough were arriving more from the SW, then perhaps.

[Meatyorologist]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe if we get this pattern out of the way in spring it’ll reverse during the summer.  

Or maybe by force of habit it LOCKS IN PERMANENTLY 

[Meatyorologist]

He's gonna love this run.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

And 16 years ago yesterday I believe Everett got 7” of snow from a CZ.

Yep! I got about 5” or so. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 4/17/2024 at 9:53 AM, Phil said:

I’m probably biased.

Looks like Aug and Jan have the ugliest trends up there.

June also for Southwestern Oregon. Does this data include the June 2021 heatwave? My guessing is if we do another 30-Year Trend in the next decade or so then the pink will slowly creep north towards Western Oregon and Washington with June trending the warmest.

Another thing I noticed is in parts of Alaska, February is the warmest. That makes sense because over the past 30 years we have had some big time February Arctic Blast here in the PNW while there is big ridging in Alaska. In my opinion this trend might also continue and the February will slowly overtake October as the month trending the warmest up in Alaska.

If my hypothesis is correct then that means Spring will become shorter and shorter as Winter ends later than usual and Summer beings earlier.  

[Meatyorologist]

Tomorrow's gonna be wild. More akin to what you would see east of the Rockies. Not so sure I've ever seen such a quick pattern progression outside of the summer.

6am: Upper 30s and calm after a clear night. Warmer on the hilltops exposed to east winds, but in the usual sheltered cold spots it should decouple fine.

Noon: Low-mid 70s and increasingly breezy out of the east. Main ridge axis overhead. Some filtered sunshine, with fast moving high clouds. It'll be a beautiful morning.

6pm: 50s with increasing rain as a cold front absolutely violates the westside. Some pockets of heavier showers embedded given the warm air ahead of the front. Crazy crash.

Midnight: Mid 40s and showery. Not even twelve hours after the main ridge axis passes over does the main axis of our trough glide through. Already starting to warm again above 700mb.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow's gonna be wild. More akin to what you would see east of the Rockies. Not so sure I've ever seen such a quick pattern progression outside of the summer.

6am: Upper 30s and calm after a clear night. Warmer on the hilltops exposed to east winds, but in the usual sheltered cold spots it should decouple fine.

Noon: Low-mid 70s and increasingly breezy out of the east. Main ridge axis overhead. Some filtered sunshine, with fast moving high clouds. It'll be a beautiful morning.

6pm: 50s with increasing rain as a cold front absolutely violates the westside. Some pockets of heavier showers embedded given the warm air ahead of the front. Crazy crash.

Midnight: Mid 40s and showery. Not even twelve hours after the main ridge axis passes over does the main axis of our trough glide through. Already starting to warm again above 700mb.

Not sure there will be much rain in Seattle... maybe none.

[MossMan]

Currently 62 degrees with a DP of 29.

RH is at 27%

[MossMan]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure there will be much rain in Seattle... maybe none.

I’m in the several shades in of green!