April 24-29 Multi Day Central and Southern Plains Severe Weather Outbreak

[OttumwaSnomow]

Is east edge of Desmoines  getting raked? Hope not.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Is east edge of Desmoines  getting raked? Hope not.

We went and checked out the Pleasant Hill area after it moved through. Loss of power for many, minor debris and heard of one injury. If that's all, they lucked out.

[Black Hole]

We've got a moderate for severe from SPC and for rain from WPC:

 

Some ML guidance shows the highest threat more towards my area like nadocast:

But others like CSU is a bit further west:

I'm inclined to think the biggest severe weather threat will be further west towards OKC. I expect to see several strong tornadoes and reports of very large hail. As the storms congeal we will get a wind/QLCS threat morphing into a heavy rain/flood threat overnight. I don't think we will get anything truly crazy, but a couple of inches wouldn't shock me. 

[Black Hole]

For the early afternoon SRH is limited but CAPE is huge. The CAPE is probably overstated given entrainment, but this does certainly support large hail

Later in the day the hodograph blows out as the LLJ kicks in. This looks more like a QLCS tornado threat as a presumably linear feature moves in. 

[Grizzcoat]

Right one went wedge and hit Minburn. Saw at least 7 tornadoes and saw 2 tornadoes together twice. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Haven't had a bunch of time to track these most recent storms. I heard part of Omaha had a wedge tornado?

I can remember a few saying there should be a moderate risk but the SPC never put one up. 

[Timmy Supercell]

But I see SPC has a Moderate for today's outbreak. As well as an overall meatier looking Enhanced. 

[Minny_Weather]

Absolutely insane seeing all the damage in Nebraska and Iowa.

[Clinton]

I have an enhanced risk for severe weather and a Flood Watch currently in effect.  I believe strong winds, hail and flooding will be my biggest threat.  The GFS and HRRR which have both nailed the high rainfall totals in my area are showing 4-6 inches of rain for mby.  

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have an enhanced risk for severe weather and a Flood Watch currently in effect.  I believe strong winds, hail and flooding will be my biggest threat.  The GFS and HRRR which have both nailed the high rainfall totals in my area are showing 4-6 inches of rain for mby.  

You have definitely been near ground zero in the heavy rain dept....fill up those bonds and creeks!  I think @OKwx2k4 did pretty good yesterday from that strong line that went through in the morning.

[Blizzard777]

We’re in Oklahoma City today 

not sure if I’m going mobile or watching the action from our hotel. Anyhow looking forward to a fun day. Had a nice show from our room two nights ago. 

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

You have definitely been near ground zero in the heavy rain dept....fill up those bonds and creeks!  I think @OKwx2k4 did pretty good yesterday from that strong line that went through in the morning.

My ponds are running about half full atm, the streams have running water for the first time this spring.  5 additional inches of rain will just about fill them up.

[Hawkeye]

Tonight is still uncertain for us.  Models are predicting anything from a half inch to three inches of rain.  I'm afraid the ones showing storms popping near to just south of us and then propagating southeastward will be correct.  That would dump inches of rain over southeast Iowa down into Missouri, but much less here.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My ponds are running about half full atm, the streams have running water for the first time this spring.  5 additional inches of rain will just about fill them up.

That sounds wonderful and I think you will have full ponds after this event...you've missed out on the previous storm chance but now it appears the tables have turned.  Not just you, but a lot of peeps on here have scored.  

@Grizzcoat, you really did a good job capturing those TOR's and I'm sure this will be a vivid memory that will be remembered for the rest of your life.   I'd love to go storm chasing one day and be able to hear the sights and sounds of a EF 3 or higher.   Just and incredible thing to be able to witness.  Those wedge TOR's were just picturesque Beasts across NE into IA!

[Clinton]

Up to 100 preliminary #tornado reports for the tornado outbreak yesterday in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Texas with another high-end tornado outbreak possible today over the southern Plains

[hawkstwelve]

Ended up being too far north for the severe weather, mainly just had a couple rumbles of thunder. We did receive some beneficial rainfall though with 1.12 in the bucket. We are now above average for total April precip. 

If I knew the tornado outbreak was going to be as prolific as it was down near Omaha yesterday I would have tried to make my way down there and check it out. Ever since I watched Twister as a kid, I've always wanted to see a tornado in person. Maybe one day.

[Hawkeye]

The latest HRRR clobbers Missouri and Illinois while screwing Iowa.

Update:  The 3kNAM is doing the same thing

[Tom]

It looks like the midde of winter up in Snowbowl...25" of powder the last 2 days, 19" along just yesterday...another Foot or more today/tomorrow!

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/webcams/

[Clinton]

12z Models showing insane rain totals with training cells here tonight.  This would cause major flooding issues if it verifies.  What a flip!

[Clinton]

Action has started early.  Be safe Oklahoma and Kansas folks.

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist 

The latest NADOCAST forecast of tornado probabilities has just gone through the roof across portions of Oklahoma into southern Kansas including OKC to Wichita. It will be interesting to see if this tornado outrbeak verifies. Stay tuned to watches and warnings across the southern Plains and have those family safety plans in place and ready to execute at the drop of a hat

[Blizzard777]

Current view looking SW in NW Oklahoma City! Ive got a cover on my sunroof and some pads I’ve affixed to my windshield in case of big hail lol.  4Runner is also pointed into the wind so hopefully side windows don’t get smashed 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm fine being in the cold sector of this storm. Any rain is beneficial after the dud of a winter. We're actually above normal precip in March/April between the late March snowstorm and the past 2 rainstorms.

[Clinton]

Tornado watch issued here until midnight.   Loud stormy night ahead.

[Andie]

Possible ugly night tonight. The warm temps will fuel these storms. Large hail high wind, and tornados in the forecast. Winds haven’t stopped howling all day.  This one is really winding up for the pitch.

81* Overcast  

Humidity 61%. 
Wind Gusting to 40mph

[winterfreak]

Pouring right now. Kinda worried about the flood and severe potential. In for a long and rainy night.

[Bryan1117]

Getting a nice steady generous rain here after some thunderstorms rolled through earlier this afternoon… finally passed the 1 inch mark for storm total rainfall earlier. 

Looks like the heavy swath of convection to the south (in KS/ MO) might eat away at our heavy rain/ thunderstorm potential for tonight… however I am really enjoying this soaking rainfall right now without the destruction from yesterday’s storms.

[Clinton]

There's some big supercells in SE Kansas moving right toward me and its very thick outside with a temp of 76.  Really hope I just get the rain but I think it's going to come with some wind and hail.

[Bryan1117]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

There's some big supercells in SE Kansas moving right toward me and its very thick outside with a temp of 76.  Really hope I just get the rain but I think it's going to come with some wind and hail.

Looks like this system might bust your local drought once and for all… it’s nice to see the stubborn patterns of the last 2-3 years starting to breakdown a bit. 

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Looks like this system might bust your local drought once and for all… it’s nice to see the stubborn patterns of the last 2-3 years starting to breakdown a bit. 

Yes!  A real possibility of 3-5 inches of rain tonight on top of the 2.8 I've had so far.

[Andie]

Mets are trying to prepare people for a Saturday night at home if they’ll listen. Large hail, high wind and a possible tornado. (I hate nighttime tornados). 

Currently 77*. Humidity at 79%.  
Wind officially 17mph but I’ve been out there.  It’s a good deal higher and gustier.

A line of strong storms are currently from Snyder, Texas to Lawton, Okla moving SSE.  The cap has remained in place this afternoon but we’re expecting that to change overnight. With strong evening storms.  
Hoping for no night tornados.
 

[Hawkeye]

Bust city here again.  I got about a tenth this evening, which puts my 2-wave weekend total at 0.25"... a very far cry from the 2-3+ inches the models were spitting out for days.

[Clinton]

First tornado warning of the year.  This looks more like a spin up on the front end of a line of storms.

[CentralNebWeather]

More storms approaching from my southwest. This will only add to the 2.40” from Thursday night. Very wet around here for sure. 

[Clinton]

Just some heavy rain from that cell for me, all is good.

[Blizzard777]

Unsure but definitely looks like a tornado in the distance 

Unsure but who knows

[Blizzard777]

Oklahoma City lighting it up! 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Another wet day! Love it!   .80"  this pm and still raining.  Weekend total  now 1.7"  and incredibly  now at 7 inches in April!  And there hasnt been a extreme  amount of run off or gully washers.  Soaking  in and saturated!

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Another wet day! Love it!   .80"  this pm and still raining.  Weekend total  now 1.7"  and incredibly  now at 7 inches in April!  And there hasnt been a extreme  amount of run off or gully washers.  Soaking  in and saturated!

Meanwhile, I have received only 2.87" in April, still well below the 3.6" average.  One county west of Cedar Rapids some locations have received less than 1.5" in April.

[OKwx2k4]

Definitely hopping tonight and as Tom mentioned, have picked up good rainfall out of previous rounds. 

[Clinton]

3.7 inches so far tonight with heavy rain still falling. Just crazy 6.5 storm total so far.