May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is always such a tease.  I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board.   And it actually was on board yesterday.    But definitely not now. 

[YahRaEl]

70° now here Eastside Tacoma 

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Looks like El Nino is gone around Nino Region 3.4. Monday reading was +0.6C probably +0.4C now. I expect La Nina definitely to be in place by time we start August!!!. 

So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months.

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just to add to the model riding fun... the 18Z GFS is coming in even more amplified than the 12Z run by the middle of next week.

I am also on Team 18Z GFS!   Likely stuck on the losing side this time around.

GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows.

That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is always such a tease.  I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board.   And it actually was on board yesterday.    But definitely not now. 

Almost looks like it's trying to bring in an east wind event at the end there, September 2020 style! Better in Spring than in Fall I suppose.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows.

That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months.

I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Almost looks like it's trying to bring in an east wind event at the end there, September 2020 style! Better in Spring than in Fall I suppose.

Way better in the spring.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA.

But ECMWF showed exactly the same thing yesterday.    So it's not just the GFS.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is always such a tease.  I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board.   And it actually was on board yesterday.    But definitely not now. 

It probably flips next round. That is a serious ridge. 

[TT-SEA]

77 in North Bend now.

Should reach mid 80s tomorrow and maybe upper 80s on Saturday.    Sunday should still be beautiful out here too... guessing mid to upper 70s and sunny until late evening.   Perfect for Mother's Day dinner with the family on the patio.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Sammamish is going to be packed on Saturday.    Hope we get parking at the boat launch.   Lots of pent up demand for a day in the mid to upper 80s.  

@bainbridgekid can you imagine the craziness if they had moved the opening day of boating to this Saturday? 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lake Sammamish is going to be packed on Saturday.    Hope we get parking at the boat launch.   Lots of pent up demand for a day in the mid to upper 80s.  

Better get there at daybreak and make a full day out of it! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA.

My hunch is you’re right. Basically the GFS/GEFS digs a northern shortwave into the STJ beneath the GOA ridge and deepens/amplifies the whole system into +TNH/+PNA.

Which is theoretically possible, however it’s also a notorious GFS springtime bias since the last upgrade. Can’t trust it without support from other guidance.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It probably flips next round. That is a serious ridge. 

Very likely the 00Z run is the complete opposite.   All it has to do is handle the upstream situation slightly different around day 5 and the trough crashes down on the PNW and the entire run is different.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Better get there at daybreak and make a full day out of it! 

We have found the better option is go out after 2 p.m. when the early birds are tired and heading out.   Spots open up around that time even on the hottest days.   And then you get the warmest part of the day on the water in the mid to late afternoon. 

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flight out of NOLA delayed and we will likely miss our connecting flight in SLC. I guess we can hitchhike to Portland?

At least the speed limit in Idaho and Utah is 80. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

77 in North Bend now.

Should reach mid 80s tomorrow and maybe upper 80s on Saturday.    Sunday should still be beautiful out here too... guessing mid to upper 70s and sunny until late evening.   Perfect for Mother's Day dinner with the family on the patio.

You keep your house 80°F too? Yuck.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You keep your house 80°F too? Yuck.  

What?

That would cost a fortune in the winter.

But our house is at 75 now with everything opened up.    We have large south facing windows.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: WATA99
Serial Number: 6
Issue Time: 2024 May 09 1722 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 10:  G1 (Minor)   May 11:  G4 (Severe)   May 12:  G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

Source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings

And note that the 11th UTC runs from 5:00 pm Friday to 5:00 pm Satuday local time, so as @Port Angeles Foothiller said, this is Friday night and Saturday morning.

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months.

But we roasted in the warm season all the way through the last multi-year Nina.   Expect the unexpected. 

[TT-SEA]

It's probably just following the operational run... but the 18Z GEFS is quite a bit more ridgy than its 12Z run later next week and the 12Z run was not really chilly either.  

[TacomaWx]

I’ve never flown out of Seattle in clear conditions was awesome. Great views of rainier and Adams. Having a blast here in Vegas. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Found a solution to the hot deck problem.   Ingenious invention!

It’s nearly time. 

[Deweydog]

Glorious day! Thank you, Jengus!

1998 analog is BACK! 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Glorious day! Thank you, Jengus!

1998 analog is BACK! 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Great to see the 18z put an all time record warm May back on the table

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well let’s hope this plane takes off from NOLA soon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem sensor is out. What the heck. 

Salem sensor back up! An 80 for them today. PDX and Troutdale leading the way in Metro up to 83.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

But ECMWF showed exactly the same thing yesterday.    So it's not just the GFS.

Thats how far behind the GFS is in terms of skill...a day-old Euro run is just as good as the most recent GFS. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thats how far behind the GFS is in terms of skill...a day-old Euro run is just as good as the most recent GFS. 

You mean the same ECMWF that showed a -1 PNA a week out last night and a -5 PNA for the same time on the 12z?  The ECMWF has been terrible at times this season.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What?

That would cost a fortune in the winter.

But our house is at 75 now with everything opened up.    We have large south facing windows.  

How do you sleep with it that warm? I need mid/upper 60s or colder to sleep deeply.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It's probably just following the operational run... but the 18Z GEFS is quite a bit more ridgy than its 12Z run later next week and the 12Z run was not really chilly either.  

The GEFS is often under-dispersed.

[Phil]

18z Euro/EPS didn’t budge either.  

[Phil]

18z EPS mean vs 18z operational GFS D5 - D6.

I can’t imagine the EPS being so drastically wrong at this range. The GFS is probably in error.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

How do you sleep with it that warm? I need mid/upper 60s or colder to sleep deeply.

What are you talking about?   Should we turn on the AC now?   It was 77 degrees today with a dewpoint in the 40s and it will likely get into the 40s tonight.   

We keep it at 70 all winter.   

[YahRaEl]

71.5° here at Eastside Tacoma for that a little cooler than forecasted 74°. Shall see what happens tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty excited for @SilverFallsAndrew as this warm spell could start his trees budding.   Per his report... he was 12 weeks out from any sign life in early March so by early June there might be some tiny signs of life up there on his lofty perch.   At least the grass might come out of dormancy soon.   

Interestingly... the trees are already leafed out today on May 9th at Snoqualmie Pass which is significantly higher than his location and farther north.   

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty excited for @SilverFallsAndrew as this warm spell could start his trees budding.   Per his report... he was 12 weeks out from any sign life in early March so by early June there might be some tiny signs of life up there on his lofty perch.   At least the grass might come out of dormancy soon.   

Interestingly... the trees are already leafed out today on May 9th at Snoqualmie Pass which is significantly higher than his location and farther north.   

This guy is freaking out today lol. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

This guy is freaking out today lol. 

Just today?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

This guy is freaking out today lol. 

I just enjoy needling Andrew... our master troll.   All light-hearted.