October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Historic Winter ahead. You heard it here first for the 94th time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Something brewing. Night shift, synthwave tunes activated!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Off brand.

Unfortunate. Christmas is nearing though.

https://www.amazon.com/Master-Artist-Bundle-Tabletop-Travel/dp/B07NS7N4TT/ref=asc_df_B07NS7N4TT/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=309806485576&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=17910798034351263051&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9061079&hvtargid=pla-650947949995&psc=1

[snow_wizard]

For kind of a rough guess at what is possible if tonight's runs verify I would think somewhere between the late October 1935 blast and the Nov 12, 1955 blast would be a pretty good rough guess at the coldest it could possibly be.  Late October 1935 had freezing high temps in some places, and Nov 1955 has highs in the low 20s in a lot of places.  Again...this is just speculation of what is the most intense cold that's possible around the time in question.  The ECMWF solution looks like it could unquestionably bring record cold for most locations due to the fact the November records before the 12th or so are much less intense other than early Nov 1935.  Fun to speculate at any rate.

[snow_wizard]

Currently a very surprising 39 here.  I see a lot of places are in the 50s right now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 37F. Another nice, chilly night.

[Meatyorologist]

One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10.

[Gradient Keeper]

1:52 AM 37.0, dewpoint 31.6 near West Gresham

[El_Nina]

38 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

1:52 AM 37.0, dewpoint 31.6 near West Gresham

Down to 37 here near East Damascus. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10.

Good point. Yep.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS was 'game on' after day 10...  we might doing the cold November thing instead of the very wet November thing.

 

[Jesse]

19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looking nice. I like that we even have a small shot of cooler air brush us by to the east on the 30th/31st. Should end the month on a cool note.

[Jesse]

36 degrees this morning some dense fog out there. Was as low as 34 earlier before fog developed.

Eighth consecutive sub-40 low. Nice change of pace after all the 50+ lows to start the month. The colors have really started to catch up around town the last few days, could be a rare Halloween peak this year.

[TT-SEA]

49 at SEA... and a crazy 55 at BLI this morning.  

And a chilly 37 out here... have not checked but I assume its relatively clear here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 30F. 6th freeze already. This feels different than other late Octobers with cold temps & appears as though some sort of Washington & PDX-based event is on the possibly distant horizon.

[Jesse]

06z GFS looked fairly chilly in the long range as well.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10.

AK is never the cold air source for PNW region except in SSW situations like Feb 1989. And especially not in November.

[Jesse]

Fog has become very dense here right before sunrise. PDX is reporting 1/8 mile visibility, probably the same or less here.

37 degrees.

[El_Nina]

No fog here this morning which ended up allowing the temperature to drop to 31. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

49 at SEA... and a crazy 55 at BLI this morning.  

And a chilly 37 out here... have not checked but I assume its relatively clear here.

I think that warmth here is from downsloping off the Chuckanut Mountains to the south. I've seen it happen before in some southerly flow situations. KBLI recorded a high of 61°F on Jan 3rd of this year.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think that warmth here is from downsloping off the Chuckanut Mountains to the south. I've seen it happen before in some southerly flow situations. KBLI recorded a high of 61°F on Jan 3rd of this year.

Yeah... the south wind was gusting to almost 30 mph there overnight.   It dropped to S13 at 7 a.m. and the temp went down to 53.

[FroYoBro]

35 for a low with some fog. 
 

Nice to get some cold temperatures again. A pretty nice three night streak of cold nights down here. 
31,29 and now 35 at my spot. Not bad for October. 

[snow maniac]

Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today?

[El_Nina]

1 minute ago, snow maniac said:

Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today?

Another one. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today?

Must be some upslope near the Olympics there.   

There is a weak warm front draped over WA.      Normally that results in drizzle in my area... but its crystal clear here this morning.   

[FroYoBro]

11 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Another one. 

Someone who doesn’t look at the models?

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Someone who doesn’t look at the models?

Pretty sure we all do. 

[MossMan]

50 currently. Feels like spring! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Mild morning at 45 degrees. No drizzle here but cloudy. 

[MossMan]

Going downnnnn. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the GFS GEM and EURO all are in agreement of a more interesting pattern developing early next month. They all look somewhat chilly by day 10. 

[Phil]

Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).

[FroYoBro]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).

 Why don't you post stuff like this on a forum where people understand it? There is an American weather forum that is actually based around the eastern US. Or were you banned from that website at some point? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z looks chilly. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z looks chilly. 

Not too bad for this time of year. Considering we just had a decent cold shot of air getting another one not too long afterwards is nice. We will see though still over a week out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).

Needs a little salt.

[SouthHillFrosty]

52 minutes ago, Phil said:

Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).

[MossMan]

Morning shift is not quite as exciting as the night shift...Reminds me of the NWS Seattle Mets and their discussions. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).