snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So what were the WB people saying about later December? Was Bastardi one of them? I'm not sure which one did the write up, but he expressed confidence of a pattern reversal for late December through mid January with a cold Western trough. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 33/50 today. Putting up the Christmas lights today it was the coldest 50 degrees I've felt even with full sunshine. 38 now. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 35 minutes ago, Jesse said: Chilly day up in the snow in Gifford Pinchot. Didn’t break freezing by much up the Wind River Valley. Looks like we had a 47/36 day back home. Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today. I have managed to thread the needle between all of the clouds and wind and do ok for low temps this month so far. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today. We all need to chip in and buy you a gorge for Christmas. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Here is last nights GEFS 35 day run, starting with day 17. Wow. That's phenomenal. Nice amplified block with good tilt at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Temp down to 38.8, dewpoint 24.8 with howling east winds. VERY cold east wind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 I wore shorts and mowed in early December 2008. I also sat on my deck in shorts in mid January 2019... I’m chaining up my mower plow tomorrow. 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Temp down to 38.8, dewpoint 24.8 with howling east winds. VERY cold east wind. No, January 5th will be a cold east wind! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive. Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me! 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Wow. That's phenomenal. Nice amplified block with good tilt at times. I have been impressed with the consistency of the long term models, (Euro weeklies and the 35 day GEFS). And also the mid term ensembles that go out to 16 days. Devil is in the details, but they all show pretty much the same thing. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive. Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me! Man that sucks! Merry Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Car died while driving last night. Just flat out quit. Got to stand out in the cold With my brother in law and father in law for 2.5 hours while waiting for the AAA tow to arrive. Might be looking for a new car here soon. Merry Christmas to me! What do you drive? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: I wore shorts and mowed in early December 2008. I also sat on my deck in shorts in mid January 2019... I’m chaining up my mower plow tomorrow. A lot of wisdom there. It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold. Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 34 minutes ago, Deweydog said: We all need to chip in and buy you a gorge for Christmas. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of wisdom there. It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold. Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern. Well... thank God we did not have just a boring, soupy, dank inversion then. Dodged that miserable bullet and set ourselves up nicely for a white Christmas! 2 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 7 Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of wisdom there. It's common to have an abnormal warm period before it gets cold. Many times the worse sign of all is a flat "normal" pattern. Of course we’ve had a ton of abnormal warm periods without any cold to show for it over the last few decades too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 There is an impressive amount of snow on the upper Wind River right now, for this early. Went sledding and snow shoeing in the McClellan Meadows/Old Man Pass area this afternoon. There is already a solid 1-2’ at the 3,000ft level. Caught the tail end of the sunset and aforementioned cloud shield moving over St. Helens too. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Took a drive with the gf out to Port Townsend. First time being out here Lovely area. My dad lives about five minutes from that pier. We go out there almost every time we visit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just got my first look at the 18z. That was a good run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 things are looking interesting at day 10 on the GFS. Lots of blocking trying to set up. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, Jesse said: Of course we’ve had a ton of abnormal warm periods without any cold to show for it over the last few decades too. With a Nina that is pretty rare. That is especially true with an exceptional pattern like this. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 11 Look at that trough I would pee extensively many times if the GEFS somehow, miraculously shows this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 11 Look at that trough I would pee extensively many times if the GEFS somehow, miraculously shows this. Just your casual 944mb Haida Gwaii low... lol Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 944mb low near Haida Gwaii(Queen Charlottes) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Just your casual 944mb Haida Gwaii low... lol We literally posted that at the same time. This can only mean SNOW is coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Had a pretty crazy 58 / 30 here today. I have managed to thread the needle between all of the clouds and wind and do ok for low temps this month so far. We’ve scored two good freezes so far this month. Had a low of 29 yesterday morning and 30 on Tuesday morning. Highs have generally been running cooler than up there thanks to the gorge. The warmest it’s been here is just 54, and 3/5 days so far have had highs in the 40s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Oh man, GFS might be going places. *might*.... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Pretty insane mountain snow on this run. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Oh man, GFS might be going places. *might*.... At this point doesn't look like enough blocking on this run, but could be some cold maritime air. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 It's coming. Patience.... Patience. 3 Days later: "We just need to be patient." 5 Days later: "It's just a minor hiccup. We must remain patient." 7 Days later: "It's okay. The pattern needs to do a 'reset' with 1-2 weeks of onshore flow.... and then." 2 Weeks later: "Hey. At least we've had some rain and a few feet of power for the mountains. It could be worse." 1 Month later: "Look on the bright side. 3 out of 14,980 ensembles members have shown a cold pattern. We'll get there. Late January is our time to shine." 2 months later: "I'm wearing shorts today. The Korean model looks interesting. Who wants BBQ?" 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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