December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Going to be in Texas from 12/21-1/2. Hopefully the snow holds off until after I’m back. I feel like it will but we will see. Cold season has been pretty meh up to this point just one freeze so far. Looks wet with lots of mountain snow atleast. 

Not to turn this into the covid thread but do you guys not have travel restrictions down there?  I’m just curious!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's safe to say models are having a very difficult time after roughly Day 4.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Not to turn this into the covid thread but do you guys not have travel restrictions down there?  I’m just curious!

Lol this is America no restrictions. 

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM at Day 9 at least the ridge is in a near optimal location for retrogression.

[Gradient Keeper]

End of the GEM trying to do some things

[TacomaWaWx]

Not sure if y’all saw the sunrise Monday morning but it was crazy. Caught it on my way to work. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wet looking GFS run. Perhaps some wind potential next week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cyberpunk time!!!

[Meatyorologist]

Aw man, I'm genuinely disappointed that the GFS ended when it did. It was about to launch that bombing low to the east of Japan all the way into Santa's domain on the west side of a retrograding ridge. Sandwiched between that ridge and the SE Asian trough on the exit region of a splitting jet, too....textbook stuff. At least it didn't end on a death ridge like the 06z last night!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Hasn't the GEM been more accurate then the GFS of late?

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hasn't the GEM been more accurate then the GFS of late?

It’s a little better within about 5 days. Both pretty crappy beyond that. 

[Christensen87]

Unfortunately, I think it’s safe to say we won’t see any cold fun until at least mid January  Stormy and mild for the next few weeks. 

[Deweydog]

Here it comes...

[Deweydog]

It’s December 9th.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Unfortunately, I think it’s safe to say we won’t see any cold fun until at least mid January  Stormy and mild for the next few weeks. 

I think it's safe to say I have no idea what's going to happen in 6 hours let alone the next 4-5 days. I don't even know if I'll **** the bed or not tonight. No one does. No one on this forum can concretely say, "No, Rob, I will not **** the bed tonight." See? Yeah. I mean, maybe you're right. No one knows.

00z ECMWF in 7 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 11.5 (Past 4 runs)

Interesting

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I think it's safe to say I have no idea what's going to happen in 6 hours let alone the next 4-5 days. I don't even know if I'll **** the bed or not tonight. No one does. No one on this forum can concretely say, "No, Rob, I will not **** the bed tonight." See? Yeah. I mean, maybe you're right. No one knows.

00z ECMWF in 7 minutes

Definitely a little early to call the final 1/3rd of December. I personally get the feeling it’ll be January before anything happens but you never know! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3'er

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS might start scaling back the number of times consumers can pull data from it's servers within a time period. Too much demand for data is putting strain on their IT infrastructure and apparently, for who knows what reason, they are dragging their feet to keep up with current technologies (cloud, CDN, etc.) that could better spread the load. 

While they say it shouldn't affect 75% of the consumers directly, it might affect sites like TropicalTidbits and others that rely on this data.

Soooo we might be waiting longer for runs to come out if that's the case. 

https://www.chron.com/news/article/National-Weather-Service-proposes-limiting-data-15789570.php

That's pathetic. They just need a tiny bit of funding, maybe a few tank's worth a year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

NWS might start scaling back the number of times consumers can pull data from it's servers within a time period. Too much demand for data is putting strain on their IT infrastructure and apparently, for who knows what reason, they are dragging their feet to keep up with current technologies (cloud, CDN, etc.) that could better spread the load. 

While they say it shouldn't affect 75% of the consumers directly, it might affect sites like TropicalTidbits and others that rely on this data.

Soooo we might be waiting longer for runs to come out if that's the case. 

https://www.chron.com/news/article/National-Weather-Service-proposes-limiting-data-15789570.php

It's unfortunate that the US gov funds the NWS so terribly. They have to limit it to 60 new connections per minute? That's crazy small

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS might start scaling back the number of times consumers can pull data from it's servers within a time period. Too much demand for data is putting strain on their IT infrastructure and apparently, for who knows what reason, they are dragging their feet to keep up with current technologies (cloud, CDN, etc.) that could better spread the load. 

While they say it shouldn't affect 75% of the consumers directly, it might affect sites like TropicalTidbits and others that rely on this data.

Soooo we might be waiting longer for runs to come out if that's the case. 

https://www.chron.com/news/article/National-Weather-Service-proposes-limiting-data-15789570.php

You know what they say about the squeaky wheel.  And with a new administration coming in, now is the time for any bureaucracy to find its squeaky wheels.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Another EURO Op run entirely different after Day 5.... Shocking.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Here we go! ... Well ... Yeah

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

Quiet night for the night shift crew

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Quiet night for the night shift crew

Perhaps. BUT that could also be when a big change pops up(It has happened before) when we least expected it.

6z GFS in 1 hour 32 minutes

6z GEFS (Pivotal) in 3 hours 2 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It's unfortunate that the US gov funds the NWS so terribly. They have to limit it to 60 new connections per minute? That's crazy small

Only going to get worse too. The new normal.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Quiet night for the night shift crew

Not really much to dial in on. Getting to the point of having to write-off half our prime-time. Just like almost always.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS must be amazing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait. What's this? A reason for promise? A glimmer of hope?

00z EPS Day 6-10 GIF. Heights building quickly south of the Aleutians. Does this go anywhere Day 10-15? No idea. Interestingly to a large extent the Op run has the same idea. Hmmm! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF Day 6-10 GIF

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not really much to dial in on. Getting to the point of having to write-off half our prime-time. Just like almost always.

Strange you're already writing off January...

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.