December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Privatizing the GFS and putting it under lock and key (Re: Bastardi’s proposal) would not make it better and a lot of Accuweathers products have some fun bits in their ToS that make it hard to socialize the data outside of their platform.

As for its performance, the latest improvements (2019/20) put it close to the Euro in some products and on or with others.

I’m a pretty ardent neoliberal globalist capitalist who unironicaly hates communist zoomers calling for the end of property because private enterprise is colonialism that hurts “folx”, and I still see value in a public service such as the NWS which should be operating with a bit more flexibility in their spend.

I think it’s safe to say the GFS is at least a decade behind ECMWF in overall skill score(s). Progress in that regard is quite slow, so the actual difference isn’t gargantuan, but it’s consistent and statistically significant across parameters. Any objective verification study would come to such a conclusion. Afaik.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

[Timmy Supercell]

Winter is coming back. Starting Friday is a 7-8 day stretch of snow. Some of the highs are over 40 so this probably won't be a major snow.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mostly the same it seems.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 9

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 11

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 12

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 - 10 is interesting if we had amplification. I still like this run a lot better than previous GFS Ops.

[Gradient Keeper]

What an incredibly amazing vast area of bitter air to the north. Wow

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 13

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 14

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 15

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

[Meatyorologist]

Monster storm for northern Japan at the end of the run. Nice to see SE Asia get active.

[Meatyorologist]

Interesting period to watch for a potential block in the medium range, then the motherlode of cold develops over high latitude NW North America. Perhaps when better blocking potentially resumes after Christmastime this could be shunted southward. Overall not a bad night. Onto the 12z.

[The Swamp]

My knowledge on the weather is not great.  What seems to be lacking so far is that SE ridge.  Plenty of ridging pops up in the Pacific and it is transitory or gets steam rolled by the juice coming out of Alaska.  Hopefully the SE ridge can pop up at sometime.  It also helps to steer things in a more North to South style out of Western Canada into the PNW.

 

Fingers crossed.

[MossMan]

Currently 35. 

[El_Nina]

[Requiem]

My shaky hands and phone camera don’t do it justice, but the view from my house this morning was pretty :) 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 35˚F. No frost.

[FroYoBro]

The next couple of days don’t torch at least. Sitting at 37 degrees with some weak showers moving onshore. 

[Jesse]

06z was a pretty decent run. On the cool side with lots of Cascade snow.

Foggy with a low of 36 last night. Currently overcast and 39.

[Deweydog]

PDX made it into the 30’s.

[jakerepp]

Surprisingly chilly out this morning. Hoping for some good mountain snows over the next couple weeks.

Would love to snowmobile up to the cabin before January.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 38 this morning. Currently riding a 5 day streak of 50+ days...6 out of 9 days have been 50+ to start the month. Hoping for a massive reversal of this at some point. 

[Timmy Supercell]

20 and clear blue skies. Low was around 12.

This will be the last dry day for a little while.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, puyallupjon said:

My knowledge on the weather is not great.  What seems to be lacking so far is that SE ridge.  Plenty of ridging pops up in the Pacific and it is transitory or gets steam rolled by the juice coming out of Alaska.  Hopefully the SE ridge can pop up at sometime.  It also helps to steer things in a more North to South style out of Western Canada into the PNW.

 

Fingers crossed.

I don’t think one can isolate the SE-ridge from the wave pool it exists within. It’s not really a block or pattern driver, independently. 

[TT-SEA]

4 years ago today...

 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

4 years ago today...

 

Looks snowy!