bainbridgekid Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Interesting little feature on the 18z 10 days out. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Interesting little feature on the 18z 10 days out. Most recent GFS runs have actually had a decent trough in that period. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Getting some consistency with that model. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 32 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Interesting little feature on the 18z 10 days out. Nice baroclinicity on that one. It wouldn't be shocking to see that happen after what we saw a few days ago. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Nice baroclinicity on that one. It wouldn't be shocking to see that happen after what we saw a few days ago. The track of that system with cold air feeding in behind it is a pretty classic setup for a wet 3-5" snow event here. Models have been teasing something in that range, so we will see. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Nice baroclinicity on that one. It wouldn't be shocking to see that happen after what we saw a few days ago. The odds on that exact feature happening 10 days out is between 3 and 5 percent, according Mr. Mark Nelsen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Getting some consistency with that model. And this is the mean too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 5 (North Pacific view) (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 50/38 spread today. Morning rain then afternoon scattered showers and sunbreaks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 7 (North America view) (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 8 (North American view) (North Pacific view) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Big changes over NE Canada with less blocking. Hmmm.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 9'er (North America view) (North Pacific view) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, AbbyJr said: That’s more like it! 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 9-10 Puget Sound snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Loving this run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 11 (Past 4 runs) WPAC jet extension considerably further west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Here is the new GFS, V16. Running slightly behind the regular GFS. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Here is the new GFS, V16. Running slightly behind the regular GFS. Definite potential there. I do sense models are starting to reflect on the SSWE after Day 8-9 roughly. Maybe. *Shrugs 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Ok. Not a bad run for the GFS, let see what the Euro has to say. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Definite potential there. I do sense models are starting to reflect on the SSWE after Day 8-9 roughly. Maybe. *Shrugs yeah but that just looks like a good mountain snow pattern and 42 degree rain for the lowlands.........ZZZZZzzzzzz 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9-10 Puget Sound snow Should be fun for anyone driving over the Sierra. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Was barely able to not get to 50 today. Tomorrow is gonna be another close one and if we can get past it, the rest of the month should be good to end the year. Seen enough 50s and 60s for this month already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Currently 41 degrees. .17” so far on the day. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 It's only 22 in Pasco and 29 at The Dalles. I'm surprised by that. PDX-DLS now offshore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Loving this run. We got the Andrew back! 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: We got the Andrew back! All is right again with the world, or at least with the Forum. 00z ECMWF in 9 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Staying in a cabin tomorrow night with the gf in the Leavenworth area. How much snow do you guys have over their rn? @Brian_in_Leavenworth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Staying in a cabin tomorrow night with the gf in the Leavenworth area. How much snow do you guys have over their rn? @Brian_in_Leavenworth 6 inches in the city. We had about one inch of ice (snow from last week, then it got rained on, and what was left over was a solid sheet of ice), then got about 5 or 6 inches Christmas evening. It will last. Next snow around Wednesday. If your cabin is toward Lake Wenatchee/Plain, you will no doubt have more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 hours ago, paulb/eugene said: 000 TTAA00 KSEA 290957 LTL CHG IN BASIC PATRN OF STG W-E JET ALG 55N...HI HGTS OVR WA AND LTL IF ANY PVA OR SIGNFNT S/WVS MVG THRU STATE. BAD STLT PICS POORLY SHW BACLIN BAND ACRS VRISL MVG SLWLY SWD IN RSPNS TO CD UPR LO IN SRN AK SO HIGHEST POPS AT UIL AND BLI. BACLIN BAND LIKELY TO STALL JUST N OF WA. BIG QUESTION AFT 48 HRS IS HOW FAR S WILL CD UPR AK LO DROP. WILL IT CONT TO DROP STRGT SWD TWD WA OR WILL IT STRT RTRGRTNG W BOUND AND END UP UNDER BERING SEA BLK. THIS PUTS WA IN CONTD RDGG WITH ANTICYC FLO. NEW RUN OF MRF SHLD SHED SM LIGHT ON THIS. ERN WA STUCK IN THE SOUP HWVR BOTH NGM AND MRF INCRS THE SLY GRAD ACRS ERN WA ON MON SO SE AND XTRM E PRTS COULD TMPRLY BRKOUT WITH MAX TMPS MVG UP SM. FOG AND ST TDA WILL HOLD DWN MAX TMPS BLO WHAT MOS SAYS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH NGM AND LFM DVLP 1072 MB ARCTIC HI IN ERN AK IN 48 HRS WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE PRVS N AMRCN RCRD HI PRES OF 1067.6 MB SET ON JAN 1 1974 IN THE YUKON TERR. NEW 06Z MRF RUN JUST CAME IN AND NEW 120 HR VALID 00Z FRI WILL KNOCK YOUR SOCKS OFF COMPARED TO PRVS RDGG PATRN. REFUSE TO JUMP ON THIS UNTIL 2ND MRF RUN TNGT CONFIRMS OR ELSE YO YOS BACK TO RDGG. MRF TYPICALLY POOR WITH BLKS SPLTS AND NRN FLO S/WVS COMNG DWN FM AK. HWVR =IF CORRECT HANG ONTO YOUR SOCKS. BC It’s interesting they talked about the upper low retrograding under the block, which is something that has always fascinated me about the 1989 blast. Intense cold air masses with so much overwater trajectory almost always have a tendency to do that as they become cyclogenic. December 1992 and January 2005 are pretty good examples. That thing just overwhelmed the norms. Cold onshore flow with temps in the mid 20’s is pretty incomprehensible. Also shows how dependent we’ve become on long term leads. I specifically remember there was no SWS or mention of any potential until Monday morning by NWS Astoria. Arctic air arrived Wednesday morning. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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