December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

I want to apologize to anyone I have ever truly offended on here. And I don't just mean joking around giving a hard time to the regulars type offended, but personally offended to the level that they hold a true personal grudge against me to this day. I know I have a reputation here and it is by and large deserved, but I think making this small gesture is a good place to start. I don't expect a blank slate, but I would like to do what I can to alleviate some of the ugliness and toxicity felt around here sometimes.

I'm sorry.

[ShawniganLake]

41 minutes ago, iFred said:

It might just be easier to ban you and anyone else that uses plastic money and listens to CFAX. Not only are you not local to the weather that we discuss, but your preferences to the weather are inflammatory, and your gardening picture was scandalous.

I’ll ban myself for a month again.  Sorry Fred.  Don’t much care for CFAX. And I live south of the 49th parallel.  

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I want to apologize to anyone I have ever truly offended on here. And I don't just mean joking around giving a hard time to the regulars type offended, but personally offended to the level that they hold a true personal grudge against me to this day. I know I have a reputation here and it is by and large deserved, but I think making this small gesture is a good place to start. I don't expect a blank slate, but I would like to do what I can to alleviate some of the ugliness and toxicity felt today.

I'm sorry.

I don't like holding grudges. Everybody here is fine in my book. 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I don't like holding grudges. Everybody here is fine in my book. 

Except for that one guy.

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Not good.

2016 was lower at this point!

[Requiem]

16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I want to apologize to anyone I have ever truly offended on here. And I don't just mean joking around giving a hard time to the regulars type offended, but personally offended to the level that they hold a true personal grudge against me to this day. I know I have a reputation here and it is by and large deserved, but I think making this small gesture is a good place to start. I don't expect a blank slate, but I would like to do what I can to alleviate some of the ugliness and toxicity felt today.

I'm sorry.

Hey you probably could never be as hated as I was...

Really though, I think everyone here is pleasant in their own way.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2016 was lower at this point!

Last winter’s pattern was destructive for the ice pack. Those winter season +EPO/dipole patterns (2006/07, 2011/12, 2019/20, etc) are usually followed by big summer melts as relatively more old/thick ice gets flushed out of the basin via the Fram Strait. 

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I want to apologize to anyone I have ever truly offended on here. And I don't just mean joking around giving a hard time to the regulars type offended, but personally offended to the level that they hold a true personal grudge against me to this day. I know I have a reputation here and it is by and large deserved, but I think making this small gesture is a good place to start. I don't expect a blank slate, but I would like to do what I can to alleviate some of the ugliness and toxicity felt today.

I'm sorry.

I didn’t see anything too egregious tbh. And I’d trade my reputation for yours anytime.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Last winter’s pattern was destructive for the ice pack up there. Those winter season +EPO/dipole patterns (2006/07, 2011/12, 2019/20) are usually followed by big summer melts since relatively mote old/thick ice gets flushed out of the basin via the Fram strait. 

Yes. Thankfully your ice age saved us from breaking the 2012 record.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I didn’t see anything too egregious tbh. And I’d trade my reputation for yours anytime.

That really wasn't meant to turn into a who's hated more contest.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes. Thankfully your ice age saved us from breaking the 2012 record.

Haven’t seen a statistically significant trend in SIE for the last decade or so. Volume is more debatable but also more difficult to measure so

[Deweydog]

Regardless of its reputation, the 18z is running.

#resilience

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

No more South Sound special next Monday night on the 12z Euro.

But Randy is back in the gray!

Boooooooo

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haven’t seen a statistically significant trend in SIE for the last decade or so. Volume is more debatable but also more difficult to measure so

This reminds me of the post-1998 pause in global warming arguments from ten or so years ago. The last decade has certainly put those to rest.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That really wasn't mean to turn into a who's hated more contest.

I was trying to be consolatory. Perhaps not clear enough in this format.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This reminds me of the post-1998 pause in global warming arguments from ten or so years ago. The last decade has certainly put those to rest.

I remember when the Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2013.

[Timmy Supercell]

Juicy!

Cascades will probably get a nice amount of snow. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

I remember when the Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2013. 

Uh.... that was when the ice age was supposed to start.

Both were wildly wrong!

[Jesse]

Just now, Phil said:

I remember when the Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2013. 

Both sides have been guilty of hyperbole at points. Muddies what should be a purely science based realm of discussion.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Uh.... that was when the ice age was supposed to start.

Both were wildly wrong!

Let's see what the 18z says.

[Phil]

Also the 1998 starting point for the pause was deceptive since that was a super niño. In reality the “pause” was from 2001-2014.

The Indo-West Pacific warm pool has been having a major hot flash since 2015, so we’ll have to see what happens when this subsides and the eastern boundary currents re-intensify.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Also the 1998 starting point for the pause was deceptive since that was a super niño. In reality the “pause” was from 2001-2014.

The Indo-West Pacific warm pool has been having a major hot flash since 2015, so we’ll have to see what happens when this subsides and the eastern boundary currents re-intensify.

The steady background rise in temperatures that has been more or less going on since about 1850 will probably subside for several years before starting up again.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Uh.... that was when the ice age was supposed to start.

Both were wildly wrong!

Folks were like "our kids will never get to see snow". 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The steady background rise in temperatures will probably subside for several years before starting up again.

Could be. I’ve learned that attempting to project interdecadal variability in systemic heat flow is extremely difficult if not impossible..just as difficult as predicting ENSO/ET circulation cycles over the same duration. Heat flow/budgeting is always changing. Really is mind boggling just how fickle and unstable the system is, when you really get down to it.

Though the multiyear niña through the early 2020s might have been a good call.

[Timmy Supercell]

2021-2022. I'll have 80 inches of snowfall. It's gonna be great.

Or that could happen this winter starting 01/20. 

[Blizzard777]

TWC Mets in the field get to play with measuring sticks today  

46* and rain here

[SouthHillFrosty]

Can't wait to have these higher sun angles again. How are my apple tree's suppose to grow rn?!!

[Deweydog]

58 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also the 1998 starting point for the pause was deceptive since that was a super niño. In reality the “pause” was from 2001-2014.

The Indo-West Pacific warm pool has been having a major hot flash since 2015, so we’ll have to see what happens when this subsides and the eastern boundary currents re-intensify.

SCORE!!!

[Jesse]

Some moderate rainfall here since late this morning. Have picked up about .30” since then. 48/44 spread so far. 46 currently.

[Timmy Supercell]

So far hasn't done more than sprinkle lightly here. 

Should pick up more this evening. 

[Timmy]

The 18z looks different in the long range, time will tell if that is good or bad.

[Christensen87]

CFS back to absolutely nothing again in the LR 

[Timmy]

It’s not a record setter, but I don’t hate this solution.

[Bonovox]

 

A bit different than the 12z.

[Timmy]

Arctic air is not far away at various times over the next couple weeks, wouldn’t take much to get a surprise, it’s the right time of year where marginal setups can produce too!

[Weather1011]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

I want to apologize to anyone I have ever truly offended on here. And I don't just mean joking around giving a hard time to the regulars type offended, but personally offended to the level that they hold a true personal grudge against me to this day. I know I have a reputation here and it is by and large deserved, but I think making this small gesture is a good place to start. I don't expect a blank slate, but I would like to do what I can to alleviate some of the ugliness and toxicity felt around here sometimes.

I'm sorry.

When you do this every week it becomes toxic lmao but hey man do you !

[Weather1011]

I'm gonna say sorry for liking the sun!!! I will do it once a week!! Sorry guys !!

[Weather1011]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

That really wasn't meant to turn into a who's hated more contest.

Well

[Jesse]

23 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

When you do this every week it becomes toxic lmao but hey man do you !

I don’t make a habit of responding to you but 95%+ of what you post seems to be inflammatory in some way so maybe work on your own stuff instead of being so preoccupied with me.

That apology was meant to be extended to people like you, btw, since you seem to really have something against me. And it was sincere. But if you want to act like a jerk about it be my guest.

Ironically I’ve always noticed those that have the biggest problem with me on this forum tend to be those who act the most like me. And vice versa.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well 12z runs/ensembles backtracked a bit. On the ensembles the ridge is still about in the right place if not a bit to far east, but just lacks in amplification. We're still too far out and can only speculate and being this is 10+ days out models are going to fluctuate naturally. Onto 00z!

00z GFS in 3 hours 57 minutes