December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Same. That's why I root for these snow events, as rare as they may be. There will be fewer and fewer with time; might as well enjoy these to the best of my ability.

I think he was being obtuse.  Still no proof the scenario you lay out will happen.  We just had an historic February two winters ago...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

If that you mean a warm North Pacific and Redding like numbers for the PacNW by the end of the decade, then sure. I am looking forward to the progression of the next solar cycle as that should quickly lay to rest solar influence arguments.

I think we need high solar. 

[Omegaraptor]

This would be nice if there was any amplification.

[GHweatherChris]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Chris is not on board. 

 

[MossMan]

.23” so far on the day, 1.74” on the month, 55.54” for the year. 
Had a high of 45 and a low of 40.

Currently 43. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Eric Holthaus on Twitter had made a point a couple years ago that people who "root" for cold weather are often playing into climate narratives which are its own box of trouble. Maybe we should stop rooting for them and start drawing more attention to the warmer stuff.

Right. Bring on summer, everybody! This upcoming "event" at 150 hours will be nothing. Blocking is just a LR phantom artifact brought about by the faults in our model architecture. The Pacific ocean will remain active for the rest of the season, bringing constant SW flow Juneau southward.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, iFred said:

If that you mean a warm North Pacific and Redding like numbers for the PacNW by the end of the decade, then sure. I am looking forward to the progression of the next solar cycle as that should quickly lay to rest solar influence arguments.

....I think you meant Hermosillo.

Honestly hate it when people sell climate change short like that.

[BLI snowman]

 

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Look like another small cold snap late in the run.  Way better than climo on this run overall.

Looks like some lowish snow levels with the trough and some sub-40 highs. Not sure that constitutes way better than climo for late December.

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

....I think you meant Hermosillo.

Honestly hate it when people sell climate change short like that.

Yeah, especially considering Redding is capable of legit snow events in very occasional circumstances. OR and WA below 500' in a decade? I'm not quite sure.

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I moderate /r/collapse so I can't say that I am looking forward to any season unless its the heat death of the universe.

The death of the Universe will be cold.  Very cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

It's times like this I value you more than ever, Rob.

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't hate where the GEM ends up. Day 7-10

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's times like this I value you more than ever, Rob.

Whoa. Well thanks that's the nicest thing you've ever said to me. For real. I appreciate it. I'd buy you a beer if that was allowed anymore.

 

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[AbbyJr]

Look at this insane Siberian SSW modelled on the GEFS. If this verifies, I like our chances of a significant arctic blast in the PNW in early-mid January. Seems models are already starting to pick up on GOA blocking right around that timeframe.

-ENSO/+QBO combo with a Siberian SSW event seems like a perfect setup for us. I don't see this busting but I could be wrong. I hope I'm not though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Look at this insane Siberian SSW modelled on the GEFS. If this verifies, I like our chances of a significant arctic blast in the PNW in early-mid January. Seems models are already starting to pick up on GOA blocking right around that timeframe.

-ENSO/+QBO combo with a Siberian SSW event seems like a perfect setup for us. I don't see this busting but I could be wrong. I hope I'm not though. 

That's amazing. That's the 2nd SSW event too in the 16 day period. The GEFS has consistently for awhile shown that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[AbbyJr]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's amazing. That's the 2nd SSW event too in the 16 day period. The GEFS has consistently for awhile has shown that.

I just don't see how we don't get an arctic blast out of this. As Phil has said, we don't even need a SSW event when we have a -ENSO/+QBO combo in place. But it seems that the PV is stubborn right now, so having a SSW really increases our odds. Is this going to be a 1950 or 60's repeat? Highly unlikely. But a February 2019 pattern (perhaps a bit colder due to it being in January) is certainly on the table if the SSW verifies. Of course all the cold could go east of the rockies but that doesn't seem as likely given the -ENSO/+QBO state we are in. Hope for the best but remember there is always the chance of an unfortunate bust.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

I just don't see how we don't get an arctic blast out of this. As Phil has said, we don't even need a SSW event when we have a -ENSO/+QBO combo in place. But it seems that the PV is stubborn right now, so having a SSW really increases our odds. Is this going to be a 1950 or 60's repeat? Highly unlikely. But a February 2019 pattern (perhaps a bit colder due to it being in January) is certainly on the table if the SSW verifies. Of course all the cold could go east of the rockies but that doesn't seem as likely given the -ENSO/+QBO state we are in. Hope for the best but remember there is always the chance of an unfortunate bust.

Took the words right out of my mouth. I was pensive about December even before it began, but I've held my snowy convictions about January all fall and winter. Would be surprised if we don't at least see flakes flying in the air, but of course way wayyyy weirder things have happened.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Monday 4 PM looking interesting for Puget Sound, parts of Southwest Washington.

[Meatyorologist]

HRRR continues the notion of a decent blow for WA tomorrow night. Low develops by tomorrow midday, so we'll have a better idea by then.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

Max Gusts. Advisory level for a significant portion of the area.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS is the first to peer into 2021. (Well technically 4pm Dec. 31st)

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Monday 4 PM looking interesting for Puget Sound, parts of Southwest Washington.

I’ll live stream if this happens 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  That low track on the Euro early next week is as good as it gets for snow in this area.  If there was any kind of cold air in play that could really be something special.  As it is the model shows significant lowland snow.  It does show 925mb temps dropping below freezing so it could happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very wet

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7

A mitten block?! Warning shot?!!

Grab for your mittens for the snow boys

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals (VERY WET! Washington Cascades quite snowy)

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

South Sound special next Monday night.

This might help make up for the disaster that was last winter, almost in it's entirety.

 

This would make it up to the south sound for last winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy how much wetter the EURO is compared to the GFS. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Shows 33 inches of snow at my house.  Most of that Christmas week.  I will take that please.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm sticking by late week either Thursday 00z or Friday 00z is when we start to see some goodies on the models.

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Crazy how much wetter the EURO is compared to the GFS. 

Isn't it?

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 37 minutes. Who's staying up?