December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS looks less likely to produce a cutoff here when compared to the OP.

[Meatyorologist]

Overall a trend towards a less progressive Pacific with stronger blocking on the GEFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS goes to crap quickly after Day 12. Ugh.... Maybe sometime in January will be our time....

[Gradient Keeper]

At least we manage a pretty solid Columbia Basin cold pool

[Gradient Keeper]

The overall ridge placement/axis is not bad..... Just need to work on amplification. Maybe that will come the next several runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Potential for some lowland snow somewhere on the I5 corridor Monday night. Can’t ask for much more than that. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Potential for some lowland snow somewhere on the I5 corridor Monday night. Can’t ask for much more than that. 

May have to pull a few magic rabbits and shrew out of a hat, but hey maybe.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 2 hours 12 minutes

12z ECMWF in 4 hours 27 minutes

C'MON!!!!

[jakerepp]

Looks like I should've joined the nightshift. 

We had too many things going on to keep us from sleeping. Still waiting on word about my car. Hyundai corporate is having someone run tests on my engine after reviewing documentation. Does anyone have a particularly good experience with any dealer from Puyallup to Burlington?

I have no clue how strong it was, but there was some absurd sounding gust of wind at some point in the middle of the night. I'm sure it was no more than 50mph, but it just kept building and building and I could hear things banging around on the back patio. Man alive!

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Decent low moving onshore. 

10 PM Gradients. Southerlies picking up nicely for Western Washington/Northern Washington.

BLI-SEA: -4.5mb

BLI-OLM: -5.7mb

BLI-PDX: -9.5mb

i was all tucked in bed when I heard the wind outside.  I was then forced to get out of bed to do a swaying tree check! 
Currently a familiar 44* out with SSE wind gusting to 30

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife said it got pretty windy up at the house last night. She hates being there alone, at least the power didn't go out. Looks like Drakes Crossing picked up 0.59" of rain since midnight, and its back into the upper 30s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure the 12z will be as good.

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Umm... YES PLEASE!!!

This includes 6 inches that falls in just 3 hours.

That would be enjoyable  

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Umm... YES PLEASE!!!

This includes 6 inches that falls in just 3 hours.

Lol there would be a snow event 12 hours after I fly down to Texas. SMH. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is actually pretty similar. Looks like it would drop a few inches up at my place, but we'll see. Tim looks like the big winner. 

[Phil]

The 2nd half of Dec window is still open, fwiw. Even if not epic or marginal, it could be Jim’s “warning shot” given how things seem to be shaping up for 2nd half of Jan.

Wave train will be mature by mid-Jan, and constructive interference from low/medium pass over Indo-Pacific dynamically favors stout GOA ridging, unlike the early December period under similar tropical forcing. Throw in wQBO @ 50mb and battered strat vortex, and the odds are suddenly quite high after a 7-10 day stretch of mediocrity to open new year.

Comditions could turn in a hurry mid-Jan.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is actually pretty similar. Looks like it would drop a few inches up at my place, but we'll see. Tim looks like the big winner. 

12Z GFS looks very much like the 06Z run for Monday afternoon and evening...

 

[Jesse]

Monday is starting to look pretty fun and dynamic with a sharp cold front mid-day. Following some very heavy rain this weekend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is actually pretty similar. Looks like it would drop a few inches up at my place, but we'll see. Tim looks like the big winner. 

What about me? shows ten inches here lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be cool to see but that pattern is hard to pull off with the storm coming into a warm airmass. We will see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would be happy with a dusting. Early next week looks very chilly at face value. 

[FroYoBro]

Awesome to see the GFS stick with the more entertaining solution this morning. Both the 12z and 06z have the low just barely going south of the Seattle area. Very close call and obviously small changes in that trajectory could change things in a big way at the surface. 

 

Something fun to track finally! 

[MossMan]

Wet! Up to .73” on the day so far.

43 degrees. 

[jakerepp]

Considerable snowfall in the somewhat believable range? Could it really be a pre-Christmas miracle?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is actually a pretty good setup for more widespread inversions. The best inversions are preceded by a shot of cold air too. 

[FroYoBro]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Blocking is definitely moving forward with time. #wawx Twitter was getting all doomer-y about writing off this winter and how the Pacific is going to be too active through March. It's really unfounded.

Could you link some of these twitter accounts in the thread I just made? I'm looking for good local weather accounts to follow. Hit it up with some good twitter links! I linked my twitter account in there as well. 

 

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/6419-local-weather-twitter-accounts/&tab=comments#comment-663084

 

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS also looking snowy for Monday night in Puget Sound.

By 4AM Tuesday...

Forget the 3rd shade of grey, I’m now on the razors edge of purple! 

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Forget the 3rd shade of grey, I’m now on the razors edge of purple! 

I'm very pleased with my 5.2'' of hypothetical, virtual snow!

[Blizzard777]

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would be cool to see but that pattern is hard to pull off with the storm coming into a warm airmass. We will see.

Love the possibility here and of course perfect setup for lots O snow!  The Weenie potential HuGE on the other hand if we score we shall score biG! I’m happy to be on the war line for this one! 

[Timmy]

Not bad

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Timmy said:

Not bad

Yeah, overall the 12z looks so much better today compared to yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

Not bad

Not at all! The 12z is a nice run! Very chilly!

[jakerepp]

I just bought a snow plow in preparation of next weeks snowmaggedon and told all my family to prepare. 

[Jesse]

I know it's anecdotal but the 12Z shows the last few weeks of December behaving in a way I'd like to see if we want January to actually end up doing something for once this year.

[Jesse]

Showery with a low of 43 this morning. Ended up with close to a half inch of rain yesterday, and a mild 50/44 spread.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I just bought a snow plow in preparation of next weeks snowmaggedon and told all my family to prepare. 

You're screwed now.

[jakerepp]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

You're screwed now.

Is it all gonna slide south to you now??

[FroYoBro]

6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Is it all gonna slide south to you now??

Up to Bellingham.

[Timmy Supercell]

So much for the overnight snow that was modeled. It may have flaked but there definitely wasn't 1-2" of snow.

33 and mostly cloudy.

[Timmy]

Even though the ridge is too close the LR gfs would be a chilly solution.