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New Year’s Hard Cutter


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Snow? Ice? Could be significant for someone

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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After NO measurable snow in Nov or Dec, I have picked up 3.25" (so far) on Jan 1. It started around 5:30 AM briefly as sleet and quickly changed to snow. Still snowing so maybe pick up a bit more befo

I got back from TN. on Saturday evening already. They had a pretty bad ice storm north of St Louis where I saw plenty of tree limbs down. Not that much snow till we got to Iowa. One of the first thing

Looks like a great way to ring in 2021 for KS/MO folks, congrats down there. Just an overcast day up here, but at least white ground instead of brown. 

Posted Images

Haase at DVN is clearly a little excited for the new year's potential.

Thursday night and Friday (New Years Day): Another potent storm
system to impact portions of the Midwest, including the dvn cwa.
GFS/ECMWF similar in tracking a Lower Mississippi Valley type
cyclone from se TX to Lake MI. These are notorious for bringing
copius moisture from the Gulf which would produce heavy, wet snow
along with the potential for freezing rain (ice accumulations) and
strong winds. This system has a lot going for it, strong low
pressure, strong forcing and a deepening closed h5 low.
Climatologically speaking these type cyclones can produce 8+ inches
of snow and even thundersnows! However, this remains to be seen but
if it holds true what a way to start the new year!
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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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5 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

GFS looks like it's going to tick west again with the way it's a little faster to have the trough tilt negative 

At first it does, but then it occludes and shears east before getting up here.  Other models keep it more robust farther north.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z parallel GFS just shifted back east and misses Iowa.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Absolutely on the table the ensembles are literally everywhere so any shift in any direction is possible.

If this system forms as advertised (not sure what I think about that yet) I think you might be in the right spot to cash in. I may be a bit too far west. Either way, we're overdue in our area so hopefully this system breaks the ice for better days to come...lol 😄

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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27 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

If this system forms as advertised (not sure what I think about that yet) I think you might be in the right spot to cash in. I may be a bit too far west. Either way, we're overdue in our area so hopefully this system breaks the ice for better days to come...lol 😄

I hope so too looks like the band of snow is going to be kind of narrow if it happens.  I would like to see it expand a little bit and cover more real-estate and get the whole KC area on both sides of the state line a little snow.

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro mean

1609588800-b1DgksKaRCg.png

1609588800-9F5OYXN2984.png

1609588800-xdrOXOixhs0.png

I'll take an order of 04 to go pls. A couple others are nice as well. Who am I kidding. 2" of SLOP would be a victory here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

I'll take an order of 04 to go pls. A couple others are nice as well. Who am I kidding. 2" of SLOP would be a victory here.

I'll take anything at this point.  I haven't had any snow since October when I got an inch and a half some places nearby haven't had any snow accumulation yet in my area.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope so too looks like the band of snow is going to be kind of narrow if it happens.  I would like to see it expand a little bit and cover more real-estate and get the whole KC area on both sides of the state line a little snow.

I doubt that can happen with this unfortunately. Cold is just marginal as can be. Not conducive to explosive anything. More the opposite. This is one of those 2 cnty wide warning snow deals with sharp reductions either side. I'd love to be proven wrong, trust me.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office with a good detailed write up on basically all of next week.

pattern then changes for Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure
system will start approaching the area Tuesday morning, giving us a
chance for widespread precipitation. Wintry precipitation is
expected initially with cold air in place at the surface. We could
see a little snow at first around sunrise if the column can
saturate, otherwise, we likely won`t see precipitation at the
surface until closer late morning Tuesday. By this time, there
will be a warm nose along and south of HWY 36, resulting in a
wintry mix at the surface, with freezing rain likely being the
dominate precipitation type. For those north of HWY 36, the
dominate precip type will be snow initially with a changeover to
wintry mix in the afternoon. Most of our wintry accumulations
with this storm system will occur Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Ice accumulations up to 0.10 of an inch is possible east of I-35,
with 0.10 to 0.15 of an inch of is expected west of I-35. Snow
accumulations between a dusting to 1 inch are possible east of
I-35, with 1 to 4 inches expected west of I-35. The highest
amounts for both ice and snow will be in far northwest MO. As a
result, slick roads are expected Tuesday and caution should be
taken if traveling. Keep in mind, there is still some room for the
timing of the switch from wintry precip to rain to change on
Tuesday if the warm surface air is quicker or slower to arrive
than it looks right now. An adjustment to the arrival of the warm
surface air either way would affect wintry accumulations.

Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours, warm air advection
will increase over the area as the surface low starts moving north
through KS. This means the precipitation will transition from a
wintry mix to all rain from the south to north. Moderate rain will
be possible at times. The system will then start exiting our area on
Wednesday morning. There is a chance we see the rain change back to
a light wintry mix/snow as it moves out, but that will only occur if
the cold air and moisture can overlap. If the cold air can catch up
to the moisture on Wednesday, then we could see a little more snow
accumulation, mainly east of I-35. Perhaps up to another inch of
snow.

We should see a brief break from precipitation Wednesday night into
Thursday, but a second storm system looks to move in quickly
Thursday night. Right now this system is tracking north from
eastern TX into eastern MO. This puts most of our area into the
favorable location for snow development. Therefore, more snow
accumulation is possible Thursday night into Friday for our area.
The track of this storm system will be important for who ends up
seeing this snow and will be watched closely.

&&
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I guess getting a double-digit snow on Christmas Day causes one to have optimism on current said pattern. Must be the cause of a rather positive (wintry wx wise) tone to IWX's pm AFD:

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...Powerful Great Lakes/wrn OH Valley cyclone looms large late
week...

Longer term continues to hold great interest and great challenge in
regard to energetic wave train over the epac and about to come on
shore this aftn. Overall signal to noise spread has decreased some
since yesterday yet surprising given complexity of perturbation
heavy upstream flow. Of note is general trend for leading
intense/deep srn stream wave to separate and remain unphased from
nrn stream sw progged to deepen into/through the nrn lakes Wed as
srn stream sw sharpens sigly through nrn Mexico. Good operational
clustering/consensus aloft with this projection. On the other hand
this turns quite uncertain late period per ensembles relegated to
both following additional energetic srn following stream wave and
degree of nrn stream flow influence (cold intrusion) that persists
over the lakes ahead of newd ejecting sig srn stream cyclone out of
the deep south. Nevertheless a very wet sys looks to track through
the lakes/OH valley toward the New Years holiday. This presents
potential ptype issues and resulting impactful winter wx at times
late Wed-Fri and something to focus/hone in on in coming days. In
the end, this sys will finally put an end to the lingering drought
of 2020.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro control

1609610400-wz8Tw9d7M5g.png

Euro continues to put yby in the cross-hairs while depicting a complete washout around SMI.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ya it wants to ice me.  I need an eastern shift!

Confused. You're safely in that snow swath, no??

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Right on the eastern edge, right above the 2.1

Euro's been over-amped garbage at this range all "winter". May well be the case again with this. Ofc, the downside is a weaker more progressive 2-4" swath.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS is still crapping out as the low lifts into the lakes.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Parallel GFS

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian has gone well southeast and weak.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

got a map to share for michigan?

Michigan gets nothing from the 00z Canadian.  It gets icing up to the Ohio river and then the whole thing collapses.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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31 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

got a map to share for michigan?

 

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Michigan gets nothing from the 00z Canadian.  It gets icing up to the Ohio river and then the whole thing collapses.

As expected. Too warm. We suck in warm winters. 2 months til spring, pls

Edited by jaster220
Reality setting in.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This is the best UK run so far for northern areas.  It hits southeastern Iowa pretty good.

sn10_024h.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro still quite a bit stronger and nw than other models.  It has big snow down to Texas.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

^^^^ Just noticed thats both storms combined

Yeah, even though wave 2 on the Euro is pretty strong, it only drops 4-7" of snow across Iowa.  It's moving pretty quickly and beginning to occlude and weaken as it passes through.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This system could be better if not for the big blast of warm air aloft.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN:

While our attention is placed on the Tue-Wed storm, there is yet
another potential winter event forecast for Thursday PM through
Friday AM. The ECMWF remains bullish on forecasting a large
deformation zone event. We will begin highlighting that possible
storm in the coming day,  but with the notable day 2-3 storm, we
will not be able to message that one directly yet.
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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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