Tom Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table. There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast. Let's discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 First of hopefully many storm threats to track. 12z Friday runs we should have some sort of idea where this is gonna go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table. There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast. Let's discuss. I would love to lock in this map! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 This morning's Euro isn't quite as bad with the cold, and has no snow for Iowa. This run swings a little more troughiness into the Gulf of Alaska, which doesn't allow the west coast ridge to bump northward as much, which then leads to less digging of our cold trough. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 From NWS Hastings this AM- THE MILD EARLY NOVEMBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY CHANGEEARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR LOW MIGRATES SOUTH FROM CANADA. THEINITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY WITH THEBRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SETTLING IN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.TEMPS WILL PLUMMET EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRIGID AIR WITH HIGHSTUESDAY LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM. A STRONG 1040MBSFC HIGH IS POISED TO BUILD SOUTH FM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINSRESULTING IN A VERY COLD NOVEMBER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ANDANOTHER FRIGID DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT WX CONDITIONS DRY WITHTHIS SYSTEM BUT MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WHICHWOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILLMONITOR. AS IT IS...ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND ASCHANGES ARE HEADED OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY VETERANS DAY Here comes the cold let the fun again. Hopefully we get at least a little snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 18z GFS non existent with any storm potential...some snow in Wisco and E NE but that's about it for this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Funny how dead it gets in here when models runs suck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 La Crosse AFD with an interesting tidbit regarding temps next week:THE GFSHAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFSENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDEDSINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110518/gfsp_asnow_us_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall: Sweet! La Crosse AFD with an interesting tidbit regarding temps next week:THE GFSHAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFSENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDEDSINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. I take it that's at the 850mb level? Local forecasters calling for highs in the mid 30s Monday and Tuesday around here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110518/gfsp_asnow_us_27.png I hope these aren't weenie maps like Weatherbell's from last year? Seems awfully generous on the southern extent of snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Don't think they are, and that's total snowfall from earlier until hr 150. The parallel had a storm farther south than the op gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah GEOS those are 850s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 GFS coming in more interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 I hope these aren't weenie maps like Weatherbell's from last year? Seems awfully generous on the southern extent of snows. Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year. There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year. There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter.Especially along a tight temp boundary and baroclinic zone...we may see some surprise even 48 hours out. Saw this plenty of times last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Won't show a big storm, but snow for most of IA/WI/N. IL at least on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like 3-5 in the biggest areas in S. WI. 1-3 in NW IL, W. WI and MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 00z GFS....baby steps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.pngThis storm has a lot of potential, just need it to dig some more...hopefully when more data comes into the models over the next day or so we can start seeing something better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Is the parallel GFS new this year? Never knew they had this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Is the parallel GFS new this year? Never knew they had this. Yes, brand new! Liking the "older" OP GFS this run! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 And here comes the Polar Vortex right into the upper Lakes/Ontario on Wednesday...incredible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_asnow_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 And here comes the Polar Vortex right into the upper Lakes/Ontario on Wednesday...incredibleLezak has something on his blog about this cold is part of the PV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 This storm is trying to dig. Gonna be some interesting model runs the next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_T2ma_us_25.png #cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 This is just fascinating to see winter come during the second week of November. Just amazing to see these kind of weather maps so early in the season. I can't imagine what this pattern will do Dec-Mar. This nation may set a snow cover record this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 WOW. GFS has the majority of the people on this board at -teens 850s for a few days straight next week. When this recycles during the LRC how cold will it be then???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like a lot of snowshower activity around the Great Lakes all next week as well on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Ukie should be out in a min or two. GGEM out to HR 24. So far, pretty good signs on both the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hmm. Wish we had that HR 132 panel. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hmm. Wish we had that HR 132 panel. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Probably a 1002mb low in Illinois or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah I'm a little confused with what the UKMET just did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks kinda like what the GFS did in regards to taking it down into OK/TX. Not sure though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah I'm a little confused with what the UKMET just did. That shift south of the primary low from NW Nebraska to the panhandle of TX is pretty wacky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Probably a 1002mb low in Illinois or something? Yeah, if I had to guess it probably took it between St. Louis and Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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