jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon with significant north shift 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, The Snowman said: If you're gonna be petty, might as well be consistently petty! It's a well-known fact that if you're a met in Nebraska named Rusty, you have to be super petty on social media. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Icon with significant north shift Wonder if that’ll be the theme. I know my amounts have gone on the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Latest NWS blend of models (NBM I think it's called) outlook for Nebraska and for Illinois FWIW. Implies that 4-8" WSW wording locally has a bit of an upside, especially given latest model guidance. Have to think if the same numbers hold for tonight's 00z suite the 4-8" range ticks higher. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Tony said: Just heard that this mornings data from weather balloon sites in the southwest did not make it into 12z modeling so expect changes to occur as soon as all that Data is injested into future model runs Appreciate the info Tony! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Models continue to trend away from MBY as usual. I'm about to drop this hobby. Same tiresome aggravation year after year. Gotta move up north someday to enjoy winter cause it ain't happen here... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies. I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them. I commented on his Facebook post saying literally none are showing this low of totals, and he said he thinks this zips on by but if it doesn’t he can “always up the totals tomorrow”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 NWS Omaha Quote Focus then shifts to a major winter storm that is expected to impact the region Monday. Models remain in very good agreement highlighting snow developing by daybreak Monday, mostly along/south of Interstate 80 and continuing through early Tuesday. With an expected closed low surface track to the south of Kansas City, this puts portions of our forecast area in the favored track for heavy wet snow, especially as a trowal/deformation zone sets up from northeast KS through southeast NE, northwest MO and southern IA. Current snowfall forecasts remain consistent from 6 to 10 inches, and in fact, some models suggest 10 to 13 inches or even higher appear possible. After coordination with other NWS offices and WPC earlier today, we did issue a winter storm watch 12z Monday through 12z Tuesday for heavy snow, along/south of Interstate 80. The Interstate corridor has the highest potential for uncertainty as the range could be 3-5 or 5-8, but would be leaning toward the higher end amounts this time for south periphery of the LNK/OMA/CBF metro areas. Our official peak forecast range will mention 7-13" near Falls City. Snowfall rates Monday afternoon could easily be 1-2" per hour. There is some indication that there could also be marginal mid level instability, and if that occurs, thudnersnow couldn`t be ruled out south of I80 as well. Northeasterly winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph, with higher gusts. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 NWS Hastings siding with the GFS saying it has been more consistent. What? The Euro and Canadian have hardly changed. They did say the Euro shows much heavier snow but are going with GFS. GFS has been garbage in this area all winter. Well, we will see which wins out. I’d typically side with King Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 They all have plenty of time to adjust snow totals. Why stick their necks out this early? I like what I see on the models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 NWS Omaha graphical thinking... which makes me kinda have to eat my words some on Rusty's graphic, mainly since Omaha's in a 2-7" range here as opposed to the 4-8" WSW wording... strange 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 At least for my area of Central Nebraska, the Canadian and RGEM have been the most consistent all winter. Amounts have been a little high, but storm placement has been spot on. We’ll see if it continues. Euro 3rd, GFS 4th and ICON has been horrendous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Snowman said: NWS Omaha graphical thinking... which makes me kinda have to eat my words some on Rusty's graphic, mainly since Omaha's in a 2-7" range here as opposed to the 4-8" WSW wording... strange Point & click also has a whopping 3.5" so... yeah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs v16 slight shift north but very sharp cutoff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 IF NWS OMA going with GFS- then here you go- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Watches in IA- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z GFS has moved north as I compare amounts of 12z and 06z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z GFS has moved north as I compare amounts of 12z and 06z. Was just looking at that. I'm on north edge so any little bit helps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 DMX talking TSSN-- Regardless of the FZDZ/PL potential, the forcing is strong enough to produce very heavy snow and cool the column to below freezing throughout its depth. Thus, intense snowfall rates at times are likely Monday afternoon into the evening during the height of the frontogenetical forcing and lift. This will really impact the evening commute from DSM southward. Cross section from around Denison to Columbia, MO, shows enough negative EPV for CSI release and thus leading towards the potential for TSSN at times over southern Iowa. Plus, the strongest frontogenetical forcing between 650-600mb, but evident in 750-700mb and 850-800mb, over southern Iowa/northern Missouri, only helps the snowfall intensity. The caveat with all of this is the surface high pressure to the north providing the aforementioned dry air entrainment and leading to a sharp gradient of heavy snow to just trace amounts. A sharp gradient is likely even countywide and thus ranges are likely a bit drastic but viable. The trend has been that the heaviest band continues to shift northward over the past couple of model runs, but only by a half of an Iowa county or so. Regardless, the DSM metro and along Interstate 80 corridor looks to be the northern edge of the heavier snowfall and thus included this area within the Winter Storm Watch. The consistency of the heavy snow is likely to be very sticky and could stick to powerlines and trees leading to the potential for power outages with the strong winds associated with the system. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFSv16 is a bit north of the GFS and is best for Cedar Rapids. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like a more eastward movement in terms of the heavier snows....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would've gone one tier further north with the watches if it were me. Pretty conservative usage which I don't really understand for an event with a ceiling as high as this one. The majority of guidance gets warning snows up into that tier of counties. Though perhaps they add a new watch for those counties overnight and the current watch is for the areas that could go under a blizzard warning? Not sure, just spitballing here. Though we will be flirting with or exceeding blizzard criteria in the areas of heaviest snow. Winds are marginal at 35-45mph, but snowfall rates will compensate for this in the visibility department. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: I would've gone one tier further north with the watches if it were me. Pretty conservative usage which I don't really understand for an event with a ceiling as high as this one. The majority of guidance gets warning snows up into that tier of counties. Though perhaps they add a new watch for those counties overnight and the current watch is for the areas that could go under a blizzard warning? Not sure, just spitballing here. Though we will be flirting with or exceeding blizzard criteria in the areas of heaviest snow. Winds are marginal at 35-45mph, but snowfall rates will compensate for this in the visibility department. Surprised DMX issued watches this early. Event is still 39-42 hours out. They were forced to when CWA W and S did. Watches will likely be expanded at a later time, I am sure. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, james1976 said: Was just looking at that. I'm on north edge so any little bit helps. Yep. I’m sitting good with Canadian and Euro, but another 30 miles north would be golden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Grizzcoat said: Surprised DMX issued watches this early. Event is still 39-42 hours out. They were forced to when CWA W and S did. Watches will likely be expanded at a later time, I am sure. I agree with you. Realistically its probably a threat/confidence thing. Right now watches are really only in the areas that are consistently modeled to receive more than a foot on guidance. Though from a wording perspective, I would've added those additional counties just to really make sure there's no conflicting messaging. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 21Z RAP-- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I think this is typical NWS playing catch up with the models. They should just follow the Euro. I would bet a lot of money that it will end up verifying the best out of all the models. DVN going with the generic 6” or more expected. Lame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice steady snow up here in the TC with system 1. Still looking like a solid 3-5" for Vadnais Heights. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I understand being in a "watch" is good sign and all, but in reality means just a good sign. But it's best to follow the trends in guidance and NWS will eventually get there. Blizzard Warning here a few days ago-- NEVER in anything before it- no watch etc. So keep the faith. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Jim Flowers, former Omaha TV meteorologist, with a Facebook video. Says ensembles are wrong. Thinks they have a bias. Says look for heaviest snow to move north. He thinks the Canadian has been the best. Says he might be missing something, but in his opinion the snow shield is forecasted too far south. Will be interesting. Not saying I agree one way or another, just sharing more information. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Snow ended pretty abruptly here, measuring right around 1". Nice little appetizer to hopefully what's to come. Good to see the GFS wiggle north a bit. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 56 minutes ago, The Snowman said: NWS Omaha graphical thinking... which makes me kinda have to eat my words some on Rusty's graphic, mainly since Omaha's in a 2-7" range here as opposed to the 4-8" WSW wording... strange Anywhere from a basic boderline nuisance event to a major snowstorm in Lincoln, got it lol. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Jim Flowers just put another video about the Euro and possible dry air getting wrapped into the storm in Southeast Nebraska. Very detailed and fascinating. If you have Facebook and are interested, you might check them out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Jim Flowers just put another video about the Euro and possible dry air getting wrapped into the storm in Southeast Nebraska. Very detailed and fascinating. If you have Facebook and are interested, you might check them out. I think that video has been out for a few hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well if Flowers is going with CMC- the 18Z precip totals are going to be impressive. Will post if the totals ever load.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Actually looks like much of what the GFS shows for Nebraska is Tues/Wednesday, though Monday totals are slightly higher. Looks like a more significant bump north with the GEFS, OMA/LNK look to be in the 6-9" zone for Monday. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: I think that video has been out for a few hours Just showed up on my feed 30 minutes ago. He did say it was after Euro came out so I think it is fairly new information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Well if Flowers is going with CMC- the 18Z precip totals are going to be impressive. Will post if the totals ever load.... He is all in on the Canadian. Thanks for posting. I don’t have access to the 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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