1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[james1976]

6 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Kinda getting raked here for the last hour or so. Adding up quickly. 

What you got? I haven't measured yet 

[jcwxguy]

00z nam  (Tuesday/Wednesday wave already starting at this point)

 

[CentralNebWeather]

My grids have increased. 1” Sunday night, 5-8” on Monday, 4-5” more Tuesday. Yes please. 

[Hawkeye]

Here's the NAM 10:1 map.  I'd be happy with 10:1.  I've ended up with less than 10:1 from big, windy storms many times... even when the snow was drier, because the wind compacts the snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM crushes Nebraska and Iowa. My gosh. Still waiting for the snow to end on the run. 

[Grizzcoat]

3KM Nam is N also - but not as robust as 12km NAM--

[CentralNebWeather]

Oz NAM. 

[jcwxguy]

3km nam

[gabel23]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z NAM crushes Nebraska and Iowa. My gosh. Still waiting for the snow to end on the run. 

Most models; although the 18z Euro took a step to my south, has me getting 6+. Yet Hastings NWS is going with the GFS and have me getting 1-4". I don't get it but we shall see. It sucks I really want the snow but yet we have conference tournament week and this will really throw a wrench into that! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, gabel23 said:

Most models; although the 18z Euro took a step to my south, has me getting 6+. Yet Hastings NWS is going with the GFS and have me getting 1-4". I don't get it but we shall see. It sucks I really want the snow but yet we have conference tournament week and this will really throw a wrench into that! 

They may change their mind in the morning. I do know they also look at the NAM 

[St Paul Storm]

19 minutes ago, james1976 said:

What you got? I haven't measured yet 

Haven’t measured yet. I’m 3 beers in so I’d be slant sticking anyway . Looks like at least 2-2.5” at the moment. 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM Kuchera 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM 10:1. 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Most models; although the 18z Euro took a step to my south, has me getting 6+. Yet Hastings NWS is going with the GFS and have me getting 1-4". I don't get it but we shall see. It sucks I really want the snow but yet we have conference tournament week and this will really throw a wrench into that! 

Same as us and our conference is spread from Lexington to Columbus Lakeview to Crete to Holdrege. That’s a lot of distance as Monday and Tuesday have chances of being postponed 

[james1976]

2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Haven’t measured yet. I’m 3 beers in so I’d be slant sticking anyway . Looks like at least 2-2.5” at the moment. 

Literally doing the same!! Lmao. But I just went out and measured anyway and we're at 2.3" here in Vadnais Heights. 

[CentralNebWeather]

3k NAM 10:1 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Central IL getting 10" and N. IL getting 5-8". I don't buy that at all.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Tony said:

Central IL getting 10" and N. IL getting 5-8". I don't buy that at all.

The thing about this site is it includes sleet and freezing rain. That might be part of the totals. 

[Tony]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

The thing about this site is it includes sleet and freezing rain. That might be part of the totals. 

You might be right there bit still low balling compared to other model's 

[Madtown]

Getting excited for my 1.5" of snow tonight. 

[Hawkeye]

RDPS is about the same for Nebraska, but south of the 18z as you head east.  That's not surprising considering it was one of the farthest n models.

[jcwxguy]

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Snow ended pretty abruptly here, measuring right around 1". Nice little appetizer to hopefully what's to come. Good to see the GFS wiggle north a bit. 

Sad to say, but I'd be ecstatic with a solid non-melting 1" snow fall. This is turning into yet another thread of watching Nebraska/Iowa crush job from the sidelines. For about a dozen runs Euro was flashing me a Great Dane only to pull out the Chihuahua with today's runs.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z RGEM Kuchera. 

[james1976]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z RGEM Kuchera. 

Cmon baby keep edging north

[Bellona]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Cmon baby keep edging north

That's what I've been saying all day! Maybe we can get something yet!

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Cmon baby keep edging north

I wasn’t even in the game several days ago. It has made significant moves north and northwest. 

[Grizzcoat]

Icon pretty much holds serve on placement. A little less in totals , but not by much.

[hlcater]

Just started but it’s actually snowing rather heavily relative to returns here. Might run away with 2”??

[Jaycee]

Oh goodness! If this goes any further north I might get kissed again! The way storms have tracked this year it would almost make sense, but I hope it stays put! I’m having a few friends over for a wine night so we can get snowed in, it’d be a shame if it’s a miss again!

[jcwxguy]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Icon pretty much holds serve on placement. A little less in totals , but not by much.

 

[BMT]

6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Just started but it’s actually snowing rather heavily relative to returns here. Might run away with 2”??

Its nice we've had frigid temps in place the last two days as well.  starts accumulating immediately.  

[snowstorm83]

GFS north

[Jaycee]

GFS through 69hrs:

 

[Grizzcoat]

Wave 1

[BMT]

GFS v16

[Hawkeye]

This run of the GFSv16 is the lowest total for Cedar Rapids since last night.  The trend of nw at the west end and a bit south and weaker at the east end continues.

Model agreement is pretty strong for my area.  Cedar Rapids will get a very solid storm, but the heaviest will miss just south.

[Grizzcoat]

A big difference between the Euro and GFS is 850 temps. -7 to -9C from experience is most favorable dendrite growth zone temp.

Here is the Euro 18Z

 18Z JAN23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -5.9    -9.0    1012      86      96    0.35     539     530

recent GFS-

TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -6.1    -6.4    1011      94      92    0.20     541     531 

I think the system may be bringing in some warmer air aloft as 18Z GFS was similar to EURO at 6Z. Data is for KDSM

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

A big difference between the Euro and GFS is 850 temps. -7 to -9C from experience is most favorable dendrite growth zone temp.

Here is the Euro 18Z

 18Z JAN23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -5.9    -9.0    1012      86      96    0.35     539     530

recent GFS-

TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -6.1    -6.4    1011      94      92    0.20     541     531 

I think the system may be bringing in some warmer air aloft as 18Z GFS was similar to EURO at 6Z. Data is for KDSM

You saying that's the reason for lower amounts on the non-Euro models?