Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 18z GFS continues to show this system organize itself earlier which allows a better phase...Midwest/Lakes special still in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 This from Noaa:Ā CONDITIONS WILL BEOTHERWISE DRY AND BENIGN UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MODELSOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITHTHE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREATLAKES. THE LATEST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS STILL EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREADIN TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. GIVEN THE CUT-OFF CHARACTER OFTHE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DURING MID WEEK...SLOWER AND FARTHER EASTSOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED...WHICH GIVE THE GREAT LAKES A BETTER CHANCEOF SNOW THAN RAIN BY SATURDAY.Ā Lets see what happens. We are still a week away, so anything is possible. The positive sign to this is that the potential at least exist for snow, whereas this month, the potential was zero throughout the whole entire month! Unreal!!!!Ā Least snowy December's of all time here in my area. Its unheard of. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaĀ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Ā BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Im liking the GFS is staying consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wanna see what the system a few days later brings too. GFS has also been consistent with a system coming out of the Rockies across the plains and lower lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Parallel GFS is north now tooĀ HR 168Ā http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wanna see what the system a few days later brings too. GFS has also been consistent with a system coming out of the Rockies across the plains and lower lakes.Things are going to get very active soon. Ā Pacific storm train will continue to hit the west coast and with more arctic air in toe, there are going to be a lot of areas in the central CONUS with snow chances. Ā The split flow pattern that will develop in the Pacific is going to work its magic next month. Ā Now that we will have arctic air around (unlike this month), things will become very interesting. Ā I think many areas will make up their snow deficits by Week 2 in January, maybe even at a surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 NYE around here is going to feel about as cold as it felt like in November. Ā After being in AZ and temps here near 50F the past couple days, it's going to feel like a smack in the face by Ol' Man Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I made a thread for the potential New Years weekend storm. Models are in good agreement for something big in this time frame so I decided to go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 The LES setup Monday night in NE IL is looking intriguing. Ā I saw Phil Schwartz's in-house model and it painted up to 2" in parts of Lake, Cook, DuPage counties...even Will county gets in on the action. Ā When a model suggest that amount of snow this far out, I have find it underestimates the amount of snow that may fall. Ā Looks like a 2-4" event if we can get that NNE wind to maintain itself long enough on this side of the lake. Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 From Phil Schwarz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Chicagoās average December snowfall is 8.3 inches (or one-fifth of the full-season average of 37.4 inches), but averages donāt tell the real story. Chicagoās least-snowy Decembers were in 1889 and 1912, both of which brought only a trace of snow (snowflakes in the air, but no measurable accumulation). Snowiest December: 1951 with 33.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 What are the Delta T's looking like on Tuesday??? Ā Water temps are in the low/mid 40's and with temps in the low/mid 20's this should generate some intense instability. Ā Would be nice to see a heavy lake effect band for a few hours before winds turn more NNW.Ā Delta Ts are great. 18Ā°C or so. 2 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Well if indeed ORD does see snow (LES) out of this then our snowless December records might not be in jepordy. Hopefully we can see some mood flakes at least to make up for just a terrible start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well if indeed ORD does see snow (LES) out of this then our snowless December records might not be in jepordy. Hopefully we can see some mood flakes at least to make up for just a terrible start to winter.Any snow that falls won't accumulate. Still thinking December will end with only a trace of snow officially.Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.png ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.pngORD is right on the cusp, but those totals are probably slightly overdone. Unfortunately legit lake effect snow bands rarely pan out on this side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 What I meant was if any snow does fall at O'Hare, it probably won'tĀ accumulate. I wouldn't be too surprised to see some lakeside locations getting an inch or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Little surprised by the amounts suggested by LOT.Ā There is a bit of an inversion showing up, so whatever does materialize will be fairly low level.Ā Pretty nice day today - chilly seasonable. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 My hope for finishing this December dud completely snowless was dashed this morning by a surprise 0.6" of fluffy snow. Ā December of 2011 (0.1") will remain the dud king. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 we will finish off december 2014 without any snowfall and as with the storm around christmas is a lack of cold air instead of warm air so we will finish the year without any measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 was just noticing the nws main page that there is a wind chill advisory nw of james1976 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 was just noticing the nws main page that there is a wind chill advisory nw of james1976 area.Yeah there is. I forgot that it was gonna get cold this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 A mostly sunny day here today with a high of 28Ā°. Looks to be official - only a Trace for snow this month. Been a strange month especially considering how November was.Ā Looks like 37.85" of moisture will do it for this year. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.pngHow'd that turn out for ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Low wind chills moving into the region tomorrow night.Ā SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI836 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-301100-MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA836 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAYUSHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FORTUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MILESPER HOUR WILL COMBINE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 TO PRODUCEWIND CHILL VALUES OF 12 TO 17 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.$$MARQUARDT Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 Little chilly this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2014 Report Share Posted December 30, 2014 My 2014 precip total will finish at 41.38". Ā That's not as good as 2009 or especially 2008, but it's certainly above normal. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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