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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Just a reminder of The Weather Channels FEB temp forecast

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and ad

Pics taken in & near Argusville and Gardner, ND. Temps were in the -17*F area the entire time. Actually burned my hand touching my metal tripod a couple times.

Posted Images

Beautiful daytime snowfall...flakes are nice and big like puff balls.  Looks similar to LES.  The heavier band is lifting north into my area now.  Hoping to squeeze out 2” from this.

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

Beautiful daytime snowfall...flakes are nice and big like puff balls.  Looks similar to LES.  The heavier band is lifting north into my area now.  Hoping to squeeze out 2” from this.

Should be snowing late into the evening so I would expect a little more. 

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My snow total today is 1.1" from only 0.03" liquid... a 36:1 ratio.  Two days ago, with the temperature about the same, the ratio was 10:1.  Flake quality matters.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My snow total today is 1.1" from only 0.03" liquid... a 36:1 ratio.  Two days ago, with the temperature about the same, the ratio was 10:1.  Flake quality matters.

Incredible.  I'll have to measure when I get home.  I've never attempted to melt it down, frankly I'm not sure the proper way to do so, but I'd be interested to know.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Incredible.  I'll have to measure when I get home.  I've never attempted to melt it down, frankly I'm not sure the proper way to do so, but I'd be interested to know.  

I use my 4" gauge.  I turn it over and push it down through the snow to the surface.  I then clear all the snow around the gauge, then slide a thin piece of cardboard between the surface and gauge, careful to not lose any snow from inside the gauge opening.  I then flip it upright and go inside and melt it down.  If I have one of my little snow boards out, I can just push the flipped gauge to the board and then flip the whole thing upright, with the board still pressed to the gauge opening.  To melt it down, I either let it melt on its own (like today), or I add some hot water (careful to know exactly how much water is being added), or, if there is a lot of snow, I sometimes dump the snow into a pan and melt it on the stove.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'd love to get some good snow Saturday, but I fear the PV will suppress it south.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS and ICON matching up real well with each other. Hope they have it right.

This would be the perfect time for a strong storm to swing out of the southwest and grab tons of gulf moisture since temps are finally not a issue

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It's been a while since I've seen such a high snow ratio snowfall.  This has to be on the order of 25:1 or higher.  I got about 1.3" down so far and snowing at a pretty good clip.  

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Took a glance at the EPS members for the Valentine's Day weekend and compared them to the GEFS members.  A majority of them are showing a formidable system for the MW/GL's region.

18z GEFS...

138

 

Back to Back cutters???  A couple days later the ensembles are sniffing out the next storm early the following week during the Mon-Wed period.  Man, this pattern is loaded with systems over the next 10 days.

Meanwhile, I'm underneath a weenie band that just suddenly back built and its rippin hard...

image.png

 

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51 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The storm showing up around Saturday on the 18z GFS is fascinating.  Such huge snow amounts for such relatively small qpf

 

qpf_024h.us_mw.png

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

The high temperature in KC on Saturday is forecasted to be 5. So if it tracks like that it may be possible to reach 25-1 ratio.

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Like I posted, I received 1.1" of snow today.  There is a new spotter report from 1 mile west of me that says 2.5".  There is no way in hell that is correct.  There should be a very uniform total across the city, with more as you head south.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I continue  to be astounded at what this pattern is doing in my area.

Another 1.5" this pm. Although  im gonna measure about 1 am when I wake up To allow for the 6 hr interval.  Light band after another  here! 11 inches since Thursday  and 41"  for the season.

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Picked up 2.4”...had to take several measurements and avg them out bc the snow is so fluffy the top layer is bumpy. There was barely any wind all day which made the snow look very peaceful.  I’m sure the landscape tomorrow will look like a snow globe in the daylight.

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It's been a cold evening. High today was only 4 and didn't take long to get below zero after sunset. I had to walk to my car on campus (about 7-8 minutes) and it was pretty brutal. And this is just the beginning haha. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Already -10 when forecast low was -8

Just saw that. KJYR (York) is -17 LOL. Could be where KLNK is headed. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Beautiful scenery outside right now...big fat flakes coming down. Easily over an inch and approaching two. Tomorrow morning will look spectacular. Trees will be filled w snow. Temp is currently at 15F. I went outside just now to capture all of this and its snow on top of snow. ❄️

Btw: Last nite at below zero temps, I was outside my patio and did not actually feel that cold because of no wind. It could be -20F and not be too bad, if there is no wcf.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Just 1.3" here but we're doing our best imitation of NMI between the frigid temps and frequent refreshers.

Meanwhile, along the lakeshore counties this afternoon, there was a meso-low and it pounded nicely for a few locations.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
621 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     SNOW             1 SSW OLIVE CENTER      42.90N 86.09W
02/08/2021  E6.0 INCH        OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC



0608 PM     SNOW             2 SSW PORT SHELDON      42.87N 86.21W
02/08/2021  E6.5 INCH        OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC



0530 PM     SNOW             3 NE PORT SHELDON       42.94N 86.16W
02/08/2021  E7.0 INCH        OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC

            12 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Already -10 when forecast low was -8

Wow, it's only -9 here in Fargo.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I ended up with 1.6” of snow during the daytime yesterday bringing my total from the previous night to 2.9”. Total liquid equivalent was only 0.08” for a ratio of 36:1, similar to what Hawkeye had. (The nighttime ratio was around 43:1 and daytime ratio 32:1 !)  

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11 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I ended up with 1.6” of snow during the daytime yesterday bringing my total from the previous night to 2.9”. Total liquid equivalent was only 0.08” for a ratio of 36:1, similar to what Hawkeye had. (The nighttime ratio was around 43:1 and daytime ratio 32:1 !)  

That pretty much lines up with what we had here as well.  I saw that one of our top local mets here show the snow ratios were 48:1 which is quite outstanding when you come to think of it.  Congrats.

 

Meantime, the 00z Euro is showing this through Friday...

1.png

 

00z GEFS...locally, the LES is showing up for NE IL as well as the UKIE and other models...

102

 

00z UKIE...10:1 ratios

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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00z EPS is sorta backing off any potential of a significant system over the weekend as the PV crashes the chances of a phased storm across the GL's.  That doesn't mean, however, we will see any hopes of an elongated wave to develop which some of the globals are showing.

On the other hand, there is growing indication that the next big ticket southern stream storm could really whallop the S Plains up thru the MW/OHV early next week.  Both the GEFS/EPS are signalling this period to develop a juicy system that should very well tap into deep GOM moisture and cut up somewhere into the OHV.

Both show a clear signal for our southern/eastern members to be in the zone....

216

 

 

11.png

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Wow the difference in snowfall amounts in the ensemble means of the 3 major models is crazy over the next 144hrs.  While the GEFS is increasing from previous runs the EPS and CMC are headed the other way.

1613368800-Tgkp8HVefUk.png

1613368800-YieAyra5d5U.png

1613368800-3118wpirnFU.png

 

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NWS morning disco discussing the snow chances.  If you want to read the rest, they talk about the historic cold coming this weekend, rarely seen in this area.  Fascinating.  

Snow chances...
Appears best chances for snow will be later this week (Thu PM into
Sat) as some relatively weak waves ripple through within the fast
zonal flow. Snw chcs begin by late Thu as a shortwave trough and
associated RER/LER coupled jet combine to induce some
WAA/isentropic ascent back up and over the cold air. EC/EPS
solutions have been fairly consistent in developing an E/W band
of lgt snow along/near the NE/SD border Thu night, then gradually
dropping this band southward thru the day on Fri with the
reinforcing shot of Arctic air. Chcs could continue into Sat as
yet another wave moves thru. GFS is overall further S from the
beginning, but it also brings waves of lgt snw thru the area
during an extended period of time. This would be very high ratio
snow, so like last weekend, it could really add up over time if
the same areas get multiple waves of lgt snow. Still about a day
or so too early to begin discussing more specific accums, but
signs seem to be pointing to pretty good odds for lgt to mod snw
accums for at least portions of the CWA late this week and into
the weekend. A fresh layer of snow would all but guarantee the
extremely cold temps models are showing for Sun AM.
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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06z GFS through 132 hours 

06z GFS 3.png

I can't imagine getting that much snow with temps that cold.  Don't think it's happened here before, it would be incredible.

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I can't imagine getting that much snow with temps that cold.  Don't think it's happened here before, it would be incredible.

I will be interested to see what model the NWS leans toward for this weekend's snow.  Obviously the Euro and Canadian are much less snow than the GFS.  However, as last weekend proved, any of these waves can over produce.  

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One thing I have noticed is how tough it is for cars to see around the piles at intersections.  I've got a Ford F-150 crew cab so I have no issues.  Last night I drove my daughter's Chevy Malibu.  I had to slow down to a crawl and inch my way out to see if anyone was coming.  Just thought I would share that.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I can't imagine getting that much snow with temps that cold.  Don't think it's happened here before, it would be incredible.

Can you post the 06z Euro mean?  I flipped through all the ensemble members and they took a step towards the GEFS.  

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wow the difference in snowfall amounts in the ensemble means of the 3 major models is crazy over the next 144hrs.  While the GEFS is increasing from previous runs the EPS and CMC are headed the other way.

1613368800-Tgkp8HVefUk.png

1613368800-YieAyra5d5U.png

1613368800-3118wpirnFU.png

 

Every model run has been different since this polar freeze and no reason to think it won't continue. It would be nice to see a big dog but for now we just need to accept nickle and dimers this week. Hopefully the models will come into some type of agreement for the weekend.

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13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Can you post the 06z Euro mean?  I flipped through all the ensemble members and they took a step towards the GEFS.  

Indeed it did but a little later than the GFS.

1613368800-rayOnTImn6s.png

EC at hr144

1613368800-L5glgSRhQIw.png

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The models continue to throw us a few teaser runs, but then quickly go back to suppressed.  The 06z GFS would be awesome for many, but I don't buy it with other models going the other way.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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