SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Heard the ensembles looked volatile. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I just looked at the ensembles. Quite improved! Run not quite done but looking much better 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Great that we're seeing cold air build up in BC. Need to get more members below -8C though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Why would it be dreary? I think tonight's runs have been pretty interesting. I've seen this forum be much more chipper. Some are more down than others of course. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF Day 1 Not even close. F.CK!! 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 A few magic 8 ballz on there. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said: This is unequivocally false. The 10-14 day period was basically a complete crap shoot then. They're much more consistent about the big picture 500mb anomolies now. they are just a complete crap shoot now, worse than basically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: I just looked at the ensembles. Quite improved! Run not quite done but looking much better Came to be disappointed by the ensembles. Nice improvement by them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 NICE! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I feel like Jim is now trolling all of us, there is nothing to be excited about in any believable range on any model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Well at least it's close to us... -8 850s is cold. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Well at least it's close to us... No way this verifies. The Rockies will block most of the Arctic air in this progression. Could get below average anomalies but not this cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I am just thankful we have a very legit shot at seeing multiple shots of chilly to cold continental cold air over the next two weeks or more. It will be a nice change. Always keep in mind it's easy to get some moisture into the mix on short notice as well once the cold is here. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 3 Ummm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said: No way this verifies. The Rockies will block most of the Arctic air in this progression. Could get below average anomalies but not this cold. Cold air can and does come from the east sometimes. We had 850s of about -18 straight from the east in Feb 2006. It just takes persistent back digging. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 3 Ummm.... The low near Hawaii is trending much healthier in the home stretch. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Cut off low much further southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 EURO further west than the GFS, GEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Block is definitely stronger and a bit further West on the Euro compared to the GFS at hour 96. 4 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The Kona low is moving easterly and may again screw this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4 Better. The thing that's really helping is the trough spreading out across the north instead of an epic trough digging into the upper Midwest. It's going to get cold. The question is how cold. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 A lot more cold air in BC at day 4 than last night's day 5 solution. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 5 A bit closer. Not there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Baby steps continue! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The 00Z ECMWF is actually a little bit east with the trough on Sunday compared to the 12Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 00Z ECMWF is actually a little bit east with the trough on Sunday compared to the 12Z run. True but the 12z Euro was WAY West and way colder than the GFS around day 6-7. Good to see the 00z sticking to that theme. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Sunday afternoon... 12Z ECMWF on top and 00Z run on the bottom. Slightly east on the 00Z run. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Huge differences between the Euro and GFS at day 5. 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Out of the big 3 at day 5 the ECMWF is the coldest by an eyelash over the GEM and the GFS is quite a bit milder. The ECMWF at least brushes us with cold air. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Out of the big 3 at day 5 the ECMWF is the coldest by an eyelash over the GEM and the GFS is quite a bit milder. The ECMWF at least brushes us with cold air. Yeah... its chilly but not cold on Sunday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 To me it's incredible we have such poor model agreement even at day 5 given the better models we have now than years back. This is going to be fun to watch. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Not going to be as quick to dismiss the GFS this time around. Yeah that's the same trough for February 7th that the Euro had as an Arctic blast for us a couple days ago. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... its chilly but not cold on Sunday. Great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 It certainly appears the more the main body of cold stays in Canada east of the Rockies the better we end up doing. There is still time for it trend even more north in that regard. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I don't think this run is going to pull Chris out of his believable range funk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I almost get the sense that we're going to see more improvements now that we're talking Day 3-6 and not Day 7+ We Just need the cut-off to head south to Hawaii, build heights further west, and pull the base of the trough around. Not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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