February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Facts are such meanies.

Have you checked your facts lately though? Some new calculations suggest diminishing returns. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Tilt of the ridge is all wrong.... Always something

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Tilt of the ridge is all wrong.... Always something

 

I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. 

This winter is getting the best of everyone.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs) Ridge both trending stronger and pivoting a bit more

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you checked your facts lately though? Some new calculations suggest diminishing returns. 

Yeah yeah our climate is warming. That fact stands tall on its own without any need for further embellishment 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame.

(Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah yeah our climate is warming. That fact stands tall on its own without any need for further embellishment 

3rd coldest October since 1892 in Salem in 2019.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

All I care about is that my snow for next Wednesday is still here on this run.  Then I'm going to bed.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

3rd coldest October since 1892 in Salem in 2019.

I really enjoyed that month.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame.

(Past 4 runs)

Troughing in the middle of the continent keeps moving farther west.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Troughing in the middle of the continent keeps moving farther west.

Good retrogression into central AK.  I'm happy for them.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

HR 186 is showing snow in the N. Willamette Valley with our snow commencing over here.  Hopefully this run, of runs, continues.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’ll leave this here. 
 

2016-2017 winter was one for the ages. Even in the 70’s or 80’s. It was epic. At least in the east side of the mountains it was. Some west side areas too. It can and will happen again, epic months, record lows, epic snowfall days etc. Don’t be fooled, weather and Mother Nature will still perform. It just doesn’t happen every year. When did it ever?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Shows upslope snow from hr 186 to 210, still snow showers out to 222, wraparound into the valley even with low thicknesses.  Definitely something I am going to keep watching.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Shows upslope snow from hr 186 to 210, still snow showers out to 222, wraparound into the valley even with low thicknesses.  Definitely something I am going to keep watching.

Certainly an improvement over druncle. Much more proficient at getting cold south of the 49th parallel. Let's hope that's a trend

[TheNewCulverJosh]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Certainly an improvement over druncle. Much more proficient at getting cold south of the 49th parallel. Let's hope that's a trend

Hopefully I wake up to them saying the same thing.  I have a bet with my brother that we get at least one 12" storm this year.  Been pathetic over here.

[GHweatherChris]

32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame.

(Past 4 runs)

Day 5 isn't even in the believable range, let alone day 4, not anymore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fascinating run.

[Slushy Inch]

Not going to complain about another could run.

[Cloud]

This run is an improvement and noticeably cooler by day 9. Positive trend and colder air is creeping westward. Now let's get this inside 5 days. 

[Slushy Inch]

CMC is an uglier version of the GFS, but is also cold, interested to see the Euro.

[Omegaraptor]

A real SE ridge would certainly help

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

This run is an improvement and noticeably cooler by day 9. Positive trend and colder air is creeping westward. Now let's get this inside 5 days. 

It will be interesting to see if the Wed/Thur storm I am following holds to form.  Appears to suppress the jet and maybe open the door???  I am not the best at reading the models but 522 thicknesses and -10 850s do speak to me.

[GHweatherChris]

Long range model forecasting has unfortunately gotten worse since 2008, IMO.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Long range model forecasting has unfortunately gotten worse since 2008, IMO.

This is unequivocally false. The 10-14 day period was basically a complete crap shoot then. They're much more consistent about the big picture 500mb anomolies now. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seasonably cool

[bainbridgekid]

Somehow Snoqualmie Pass is still reporting rain right now despite snow being reported down to 500 feet in spots around the Sound. Very cold 38 degree rain here.

I'll be skiing up there tomorrow so hoping they can get at least a couple inches tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. 

Well the models aren't the best, and I'm feeling a bit beat down with my knee and Birthday on Superbowl Sunday looking ahead this year and praying I do not have to have another surgery. I'm thankful everyday and I say it several times. I think it helps keep us grounded and stay in perspective.

[Timmy]

I think Andrew may have taken up drugs recently 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I think Andrew may have taken up drugs recently 

How dare you!

[MossMan]

So glad it’s raining again, things were getting mighty dry out there...

up to .59” on the day, currently 37 degrees. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Somehow Snoqualmie Pass is still reporting rain right now despite snow being reported down to 500 feet in spots around the Sound. Very cold 38 degree rain here.

I'll be skiing up there tomorrow so hoping they can get at least a couple inches tonight.

It's probably the exhaust from Tim's weather manipulation device heating the local atmosphere near the pass. I know in the past he had it pointed at Jim's house but may have made some adjustments. 

[TacomaWaWx]

39 degrees now. First time into the 30s in a week! Up to 0.44” on the day as well. 

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty amazing to have the big three models all showing a very rare progression to cold weather like we are currently seeing.  The 12z ECMWF, 18z GFS, 0z GFS, and 0z GEM are all similar and all end up in a weird / cold configuration before day 10.  Can't wait to see how it plays out.  It's interesting to see the GEM colder with the situation this weekend / early next week as well.  That still has potential to end up colder than currently thought.

[Winterdog]

39 currently, .72" so far today, low of 38.8.  Raining off and on, more on than not.  Thinking the Euro will not dispel the dreary mood hanging upon the forum but hoping it does anyway.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Hoping for improvements on the Euro. The 18z EPS was a nice step in the right direction through D6.

I forgot to look at that!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Acer said:

39 currently, .72" so far today, low of 38.8.  Raining off and on, more on than not.  Thinking the Euro will not dispel the dreary mood hanging upon the forum but hoping it does anyway.

Why would it be dreary?  I think tonight's runs have been pretty interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  I guess the 18z EPS was colder.  If the trend continues the day 6 time frame could be downright cold.