New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[james1976]

Kinda neat watching these 2 pieces of energy in the plains merge together. 
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/uppermissvly.gif

[Tom]

12z RGEM...

[gosaints]

GFS and nam really starting emphasis the western band through central mn versus the eastern band

[Geos]

Snowing big flakes right now. Grass is still showing here as well, but I don't think for long.

 

0.7" so far. Surprised - I never heard any sleet this morning or last night.

[Jack Frost]

Just looking at radar it looks like it might start phasing in eastern Ne.

[Geos]

Been drizzling now for awhile. Just a touch too warm right now.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Just had a nice burst of moderate snow with big flakes for the last 20 minutes, probably amounted to just over a dusting.

[Trinomial]

Is this still looking like all rain this afternoon, or is anyone seeing a changeover? Thanks!

[gosaints]

Is this still looking like all rain this afternoon, or is anyone seeing a changeover? Thanks!

Rain

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[shakjen]

Rain

Rain

[Blugga]

Rain

 

Still rain by me. Sitting right at 32ºF. Occasionally we'll go over to zrain but it's just a big slushy mess with the half inch of snow that fell early this morning. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Central Nebraska finally put in wwa for up to 3 inches of snow and wind gusts to 45 mph. Along with our snow on the ground that will also blow, would not be surprised to see blizzard conditions tonight. Local mets mentioning travel nightmares.

[Geos]

As far as NE IL, I think -ZR and -RN will continue for another 6 hours about, before the mid levels cool off enough.

 

Can't wait until this first batch pushes out!

[Tom]

Glad to see NE get something out of this system rather than nothing.  It should fill in some of the "snow holes" showing up in the Plains/Midwest.

 

Meantime, 16z HRRR showing a healthy looking defo band developing later tonight...

[Seahawkfan]

Just checked Looks like 2-4 for my area tonight along with b lowing drifting snow. Wonder if they will end up with Blizzard warning later on if the winds pick with? Currently here 34 on and off light rain Can't wait for this evening when the real fun begins.

[WBadgersW]

A bit over 1" from last night. Light snow shower currently passing through. My guess is I'll see another 1" to 1.5" tonight.

[earthandturf]

Any idea when this ends tomorrow?

[Tom]

Any idea when this ends tomorrow?

Best guess right now, sometime around Noon.  Sunday is going to feel like the arctic tundra for most on this forum with plunging temps, below zero wind chills, blowing and drifting snow...hello January!

[Tom]

18z NAM...wondering if LOT/MKE will post WWA's later tonight for the accumulating snowfall....

[Geos]

Radar shows 20 dbz returns, but that's deceptive. Light drizzle is the only thing that's really falling now. Looks like about another hour of this, before it pushes off into Michigan.

 

12Z EURO showing up to 5". 5" might be high this far west, but I think up to 4" is possible in spots this far west. Just depends on how quickly the mid levels can cool tonight.

 

[Tom]

Radar shows 20 dbz returns, but that's deceptive. Light drizzle is the only thing that's really falling now. Looks like about another hour of this, before it pushes off into Michigan.

 

12Z EURO showing up to 5". 5" might be high this far west, but I think up to 4" is possible in spots this far west. Just depends on how quickly the mid levels can cool tonight.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_mw_8.png

I think you have to deduct 1-2" from the afternoons rain that the model picked up on.  In general, I think 2-4" will do and I'd take that to cover up the grass and this slop mess.

[Geos]

I think you have to deduct 1-2" from the afternoons rain that the model picked up on.  In general, I think 2-4" will do and I'd take that to cover up the grass and this slop mess.

 

That's probably sounds about right. I guess what's on the ground now will serve as a base for tonight's snow. Grass blades are generally half buried right now. Snow plows actually came around awhile ago. I figure they don't want that mess freezing on the pavement later on.

[FV-Mike]

Just checked Looks like 2-4 for my area tonight along with b lowing drifting snow. Wonder if they will end up with Blizzard warning later on if the winds pick with? Currently here 34 on and off light rain Can't wait for this evening when the real fun begins.

Where are you located Seahawkfan?

[Seahawkfan]

About 200 miles to the west slightly south of you on the Iowa/IL boarder in Burlington.

[Seahawkfan]

I know Most likely i'm wish casting on a Blizzard warning But i really hope the Snow happens tired of looking at the bare ground.

[Geos]

The snow on the ground is really dense, which the drizzle all afternoon hasn't made much of a dent in it. Broken up back edge finally pushing out.

[FV-Mike]

Grid showing 1-2 tonight and 1-2 for tomorrow. would be happy for 2-3 inches out of this system

[CentralNebWeather]

Blizzard conditions here. I can't see across the street. Travel in many parts of Nebraska is not advised. I-80 in western Nebraska is closed.

[Sven]

Blizzard Warning for Sioux Falls office CWA...wouldn't be shocked if we snagged one too. 

[Naddan85]

The NWS in Sioux Falls has upgraded their WWA to a Blizzard Warning, and they're supposed to get even less snow than Lincoln and Omaha. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Sven]

Tweeted Matt Serwe Local KETV (ABC Affiliate) Met. here in Omaha, he believes it was done due to the rural areas. I don't know, but Sioux Falls and City isn't to rural, just small town. Second Naddan's motion, think blizzard conditions are possible. Really got cold here in a hurry. 

[Naddan85]

I posted on Jim Flowers' FB page and said I was wondering if OAX would follow suit. From his answer, I think he's wondering the same thing. And looking at the radar returns, I think there could be enough snow, and definitely enough wind, to cause near whiteout conditions...at least for a while. Hmm...

[Sven]

Thought they were more conservative than valley...guess I was wrong. 

[Geos]

Temperature slowly starting to fall here. Atmosphere is gearing up for tonight.

[Tom]

Glancing at the radar and the new HRRR run, precip shield looks more widespread than earlier runs...something I considered yesterday might happen given the potency of this cut-off low which is beginning to phase with the northern stream.

 

Looking pretty nice on water vapor imagery....

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[Tom]

Update LOT snowfall...bumped up totals about 1" and farther south...

[Tom]

Maybe next time around in Cycle #3 this baby can blow up into a true winter storm.  Won't be the last storm this winter to track.  Nonetheless, tomorrow should get interesting around here and this forum as a whole.

[Andrew NE]

Snowing pretty nice in Omaha. The wind has been crazy this evening.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very nasty here in Central Nebraska.  Glad I am not traveling.  Visibility is still so bad I can barely see the house across the street.  Local law enforcement tweeting to not travel unless necessary.  I can't imagine how bad it must be outside of town in the country.  Basically we are flat with cornfields everywhere so nothing to stop the wind and blowing snow.  Hope we cycle through another more major storm Tom.