January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[winterfreak]

Spring couldn't get here soon enough. Boring pattern with a lot of coulda shoulda wouldas.

[GDR]

[james1976]

You guys are still looking at models??? lol...jk!!

[Tom]

Took a look at the new JMA Monthly forecast and wanted to show you what the model is seeing for February.  Take a look at its old forecast in December for February and you can see the blues in the eastern Pacific heading towards the west coast along with the ridging near Alaska.  Now, here is it's recent run for February showing significant blocking over the top near the Pole/Alaska and even Greenland along with the jet heading towards the west coast.  It's interesting to see the model increase the blocking up on top and also showing deeper blues in the Pacific.  We are about to head into the wettest part of the LRC when the Split Flow pattern had multiple systems hit Cali/4 Corners Region and eventually spin up in the Plains.  I'm really hopefully the blocking will stay in tact so these systems can get wound up right at the time when the jet stream is reaching its peak intensity.

[Money]

Some of you guys really need to chill out. Yes winter sucks so far we get it .

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Some of you guys really need to chill out. Yes winter sucks so far we get it .

 

Lol, you are not immune to this frustration, you were saying a couple weeks ago how you were ready for summer (and honestly I am too if we do not see any big storms (6"+ is my threshold, setting the bar low this year).  Our climo in summer rocks imo!

[Tom]

I like torturing myself apparently!

 

GFS has a nice storm out in fantasy land once again. Let's start tracking our next disappointment!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

FWIW, this storm correlates well with the Dec 15th storm that hit NE and then head NE into the Lakes.  This time there will be more cold air available and are real next shot to see a winter storm if nothing happens next week.  That's about the time when the LRC begins its stormiest pattern.

[gosaints]

Some of you guys really need to chill out. Yes winter sucks so far we get it .

Pretty sure we have all showed frustration at some point throughout the winter.  The way I see it is the negative posts balance out the 300+ hour fantasy storms that get posted

[WildWisconsinWeather]

FWIW, this storm correlates well with the Dec 15th storm that hit NE and then head NE into the Lakes.  This time there will be more cold air available and are real next shot to see a winter storm if nothing happens next week.  That's about the time when the LRC begins its stormiest pattern.

 

None of the Ensembles show a big storm like the OP, so I'm not buying it at this point.

[gosaints]

None of the Ensembles show a big storm like the OP, so I'm not buying it at this point.

We would be much better off if the GFS op didnt go past hour 240  like the EURO

[WildWisconsinWeather]

We would be much better off if the GFS op didnt go past hour 240  like the EURO

 

I agree, what's the point, esp when every fantasy storm is posted verbatim on here lol.

[centralweather44]

Spring couldn't get here soon enough. Boring pattern with a lot of coulda shoulda wouldas.

Spring is here man! It enjoy it the next couple of days. Supposed to hit the 50s Hete this weekend and beginning of next week. Already 48 degrees at 11:30. Feels like 70.

[Maxim]

The cold being advertised for the end of January is looking pretty impressive. Too bad it's going to be primarily dry until then, so those insane temps probably won't verify.

[Jaycee]

Spring is here man! It enjoy it the next couple of days. Supposed to hit the 50s Hete this weekend and beginning of next week. Already 48 degrees at 11:30. Feels like 70.

Wearing shorts on campus today! Love it outside.

[Geos]

More clouds today, but it is seasonably mild out. 30° currently. Predicted high of 40° tomorrow.

 

Definitely have been a lot of busts this winter...

[gosaints]

overachieving today as well as yesterday.  up to 34

[Tom]

ORD broke past 32F yesterday ending a 11 day streak at or below Freezing.  Current temp 33F which ain't all that bad given the time of year.  Tomorrow will feel very warm and certainly fits the January Thaw idea.

 

The last couple runs of the Euro are def pointing towards an interesting 6-10 day period.  Today's run has a interesting trough digging into the central CONUS next Friday which begins the pattern change through next weekend.  Lot's of weather on the table and no lack of arctic air to close out this month.

[Hawkeye]

CR airport is 37, but here in town it's 40, so we're overperforming a bit.  Southwest Iowa is approaching 60.

[FV-Mike]

My brother in law who lives in Clive,Ia just texted and said it was 55 there. Said he going to get the grill out

[Niko]

Too bad I am not getting in on some of that warmth. I am still at 26F currently, with a brisk cold wind howling. The warmest readings I will see this weekend are mid 30's along with snowshowers and some light accumulations, if at that. Plenty of snowcover still around for sure.

 

As for the big system next week, I am a bit concern that it might be a coastal snowstorm because the SE Ridge might be letting off a bit. Lets see how that plays out.

[Tom]

Near neutral AO/NAO and a tanking PNA is what I like to see when the wettest part of the LRC begins....SE ridge will yet again flex its muscles.  End of month storm track should keep it from the Plains to the Lakes.  Not prone for east coast storms, maybe mid next week, but next weekend things amp up around here.

[Snowlover76]

Wearing shorts on campus today! Love it outside.

feels like 70+ here in Lincoln right now.  I love cold weather, even with no snow, but this is really nice. 

[centralweather44]

Topped out at 59 degrees in Lincoln. I have to say it felt really nice. May make a run at 60 Sunday and Monday once again.

[james1976]

Snoozefest on GFS.

[GDR]

Wow models look like complete duds for a while.

[DSMWxObs]

57F for a high in DSM and currently 48F. Yeah--- a little stronger then they thought. Depending on how conservative you local NWS is or not-- adding 5 to even 8F to SAT highs is more like it.

[NEJeremy]

Unfortunately the storms that are supposed to come and show up on the models for several runs keep getting pushed further and further back. At one point there was going to maybe be 3 storms next week and now the supposed active weather is going to hit at the end of the month instead of the 21-23rd like it was. It's always getting pushed back

[DSMWxObs]

Highest minimum temps on record for DSM on 1/17--- so far the low has been 47F and currently at 3am is 48F.  The Winter of "it wasn't supposed to be that warm" continues--

Highest minimum temps on record for DSM on 1/17--

 

1/17 45 in 1973 34 in 1894 34 in 1880

[Sleather]

Interesting graphic posted on LOT site this morning:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/1415wintermid_impacts.png

[Trinomial]

Tom, when talking cold towards the end of the month, how cold are the models getting? Are we looking at even colder temps than 2 weeks ago? Just wondering the specifics. Thanks!

[Tom]

Tom, when talking cold towards the end of the month, how cold are the models getting? Are we looking at even colder temps than 2 weeks ago? Just wondering the specifics. Thanks!

It all depends on how much snow is on the ground, if any is left after this thaw.  There may be a couple Clippers that can pop up like the 12z GFS is showing next Thursday.  The storm that could lay down a snow cover is showing up for next weekend but I'm not that confident just yet on how this storm materializes.  It tracked north of Japan as a deep Low so we wait and see.   The cold that is coming has origins from straight across the Pole so it will pack a punch.

[Tom]

Tom, when talking cold towards the end of the month, how cold are the models getting? Are we looking at even colder temps than 2 weeks ago? Just wondering the specifics. Thanks!

I will say this, the coming arctic shot coming towards the end of the month means business and doesn't look to hit and leave.  Looks like a sustained cold spell on the way and wintry systems.

 

Interesting run on the 00z Euro Ensembles last night, it is implying to dig a deep trough around the Midwest.  The 12z GGEM was sorta showing this as well towards the end of the run and the Euro has been trying to do so over the last day or so.

[Tom]

Waters near NW NAMER have warmed up a bit over the last 2 weeks...should promote more ridging as we head into February...

[Tom]

12z Euro now looking like the 00z Euro Ensemble and tyring to develop something next Sun...kinda warm near Chicago this run...

[Tony]

Looks like a cold storm to me.

[Grizzcoat]

This winter (Nov is not winter),, based on expectation and forecasts from many- thus far-- has sucked. All of DEC sucked,, the 1st half of JAN was cold with some snow and now the last half of JAN way sucks for being the dead of winter. Yeah-- Ok-- snow in earnest with cold may be coming in late Jan early Feb,, but by that time the sun angle and length of day makes it seem like your kissing your sister.... A real winter this is not.....

[FV-Mike]

This winter (Nov is not winter),, based on expectation and forecasts from many- thus far-- has sucked. All of DEC sucked,, the 1st half of JAN was cold with some snow and now the last half of JAN way sucks for being the dead of winter. Yeah-- Ok-- snow in earnest with cold may be coming in late Jan early Feb,, but by that time the sun angle and length of day makes it seem like your kissing your sister.... A real winter this is not.....

It would be great if we could control the weather. It is easy to complain but I would take snow whenever it comes.

[Maxim]

I'm not complaining about this winter after what we went through last winter...

[Niko]

WOW.....a lot frustration going on in here. Everyone just take a deep breathe and relax. I know this winter is a little annoying for some on here, or for most. I am sure a big storm will come outta nowhere and buried you all with good snow accumulations at some point of time this winter, especially those people in Nebraska who are suffering. We still have plenty winter left. February and March are the type of months when tons of snow can fall. As the old say goes" A lady once burned all of her wood to make fire because of the bitter cold " and this happened in March. That's how bad March can be.

[Tom]

From JB:

 

Chicago

Through the 17th Chicago is about 7.6 below normal ( today isnt in yet)

through this time last year, about 6 below normal