January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

It appears 7 or 8 ensemble members go below -5 later in the month on the 0z run.

[Tyler Mode]

It was nice to have the fog that was around all day break up around 8:15 last night.  Has been mainly clear since outside of some high clouds.

 

They make for a nice halo around the moon and Jupiter.

 

And, it actually hit freezing again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 here this morning after consecutive lows of 33.

[MossMan]

32 degrees here.

[TT-SEA]

50 here with a beautiful sunrise in progress.

[Tyler Mode]

The Ten Minute Sunrise

Ten minutes from home, ten minutes of good color, ten minutes back home.

Notice the birds in this one, they were really flying around this morning.

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Winter-20142015/i-ZVw7jxr/0/L/1.%201.9.15%20G%20Mt.%20Hood%20Sunrise%20Birds-L.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful pic tyler

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The excitement on this forum is palpable.

[MossMan]

The excitement on this forum is palpable.

The PNA Forecast looks exciting from about the 20th on, hopefully the other signals will become favorable as well. Doesn't get any more boring than the current weather. Maybe we will have a Feb 1989 repeat.

[Deweydog]

The PNA Forecast looks exciting from about the 20th on, hopefully the other signals will become favorable as well. Doesn't get any more boring than the current weather. Maybe we will have a Feb 1989 repeat.

Wasn't the PNA forecasting negativity for right now like 10 or 11 days ago?

[MossMan]

Wasn't the PNA forecasting negativity for right now like 10 or 11 days ago?

No it had been looking to fall around neutral from the 16th on...10ish days ago. But has just recently shown actual Negative territory. The positive spike during the current time has been shown for some time now if I remember correctly.

[Deweydog]

No it had been looking to fall around neutral from the 16th on...10ish days ago. But has just recently shown actual Negative territory. The positive spike during the current time has been shown for some time now if I remember correctly.

Ah.

[Jesse]

Ah.

I heard somewhere that it might be a quiet month.

[Deweydog]

I heard somewhere that it might be a quiet month.

You use good sources. Plaudits!

[Timmy]

The PNA Forecast looks exciting from about the 20th on, hopefully the other signals will become favorable as well. Doesn't get any more boring than the current weather. Maybe we will have a Feb 1989 repeat.

I would gladly take a feb 2014 repeat, as this winter feels shockingly similar already.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I would gladly take a feb 2014 repeat, as this winter feels shockingly similar already.

Dry and cold sounds exciting.... Something we have not seen for a while here.

[MossMan]

Dry and cold sounds exciting.... Something we have not seen for a while here.

Yeah us Puget Sounders would much prefer a Feb 1989 or 2011 or 1996 (end of Jan redux) or any other Feb that featured snow and cold for us!

[MossMan]

How's the 18z look?

[stuffradio]

I heard somewhere that it might be a quiet month.

What are your sources? I demand to know!

[stuffradio]

I would gladly take a feb 2014 repeat, as this winter feels shockingly similar already.

It's been way more active this year than last. That may just be because of my location though. I'm not sure how active it has been in most of the Washington places except for where there was an extreme event.

[ShawniganLake]

How's the 18z look?

Seasonable temps and drier than normal in the long range.  Looks like it might get cold in Ontario, Canada, after Jan.20th. 

[Timmy]

Dry and cold sounds exciting.... Something we have not seen for a while here.

yeah I had 17'' of pow pow last feb

[Deweydog]

How's the 18z look?

Mild and wild!

[Deweydog]

Eight years ago right now it was about to turn chilly and quite graupelly.

[Timmy]

That's a sore subject for some of the people further north.

I guess I was just too  busy enjoying copious amounts of snow for days on end to notice.

[wx_statman]

Eight years ago right now it was about to turn chilly and quite graupelly.

That event grew on me as time passed. 19 degrees and an impact snow event for the metro. And in JANUARY!

[Deweydog]

That event grew on me as time passed. 19 degrees and an impact snow event for the metro. And in JANUARY!

Without a doubt the most intense graupel storm I've witnessed on the afternoon of the 10th. And yeah, the storm on the 16th was about as perfect as they come given what was available.

[wx_statman]

Without a doubt the most intense graupel storm I've witnessed on the afternoon of the 10th. And yeah, the storm on the 16th was about as perfect as they come given what was available.

 

We're due for an overperforming snow event in a marginal setup. 1/16/07 and 12/29/09 is pretty much it over the last ten years.

[Deweydog]

We're due for an overperforming snow event in a marginal setup. 1/16/07 and 12/29/09 is pretty much it over the last ten years.

Yeah... but when you start packing too many of those into a decade they just become performing snow events.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Was the last cold snap the zenith of our winter?

[BLI snowman]

Without a doubt the most intense graupel storm I've witnessed on the afternoon of the 10th. And yeah, the storm on the 16th was about as perfect as they come given what was available.

 

That was about 1/2" of graupel and 2-3" of actual snow on 1/10/07. The shower on 4/19/08 was almost all graupel.

[wx_statman]

Yeah... but when you start packing too many of those into a decade they just become performing snow events.

I got nothing!

[Deweydog]

Was the last cold snap the zenith of our winter?

Check back in six weeks.

[Deweydog]

That was about 1/2" of graupel and 2-3" of actual snow on 1/10/07. The shower on 4/19/08 was almost all graupel.

The 2008 shower was more persistent but the 2007 one was such a stark event. Went from upper 30's, partly sunny and dry to ice covered roads in a matter of 10 minutes.

[Deweydog]

I got nothing!

Plus, 2008-09 was such a cornucopia of good side events it's hard not to think we're still a long way from paying off that tab.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I averaged 45 to 50 inches of snow in 07 08 winter and 08 09. Befor that Bout a 25 inch a year everage. The last few winters less than 8 inches. Last year 2 inches this nothing. Amazing considering how much cold air we have had.

[HighlandExperience]

I averaged 45 to 50 inches of snow in 07 08 winter and 08 09. Befor that Bout a 25 inch a year everage. The last few winters less than 8 inches. Last year 2 inches this nothing. Amazing considering how much cold air we have had.

 

You may never see snow again in your life time. The good ole days are over. Now we are stuck living in San Fran North.  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-snow.html?_r=0

[snow_wizard]

You may never see snow again in your life time. The good ole days are over. Now we are stuck living in San Fran North.  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-snow.html?_r=0

 

I doubt that.  We've had terrible winters in the distant past also.  As I've mentioned before the winters from 1937-38 through 1941-42 rivals any horrible 5 winter period we have had in recent times.  The big wild card is the coming solar grand minimum.  We will soon find out just how much of a factor that was in causing the Little Ice Age.

[antipex]

You may never see snow again in your life time. The good ole days are over. Now we are stuck living in San Fran North.  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-snow.html?_r=0

 

Hah, an opinion piece littered with inaccuracies. I love how the writer uses a couple of dry years in the Western US as prima facie evidence that we're all doomed. Dooooomed!

[Deweydog]

0z is running!