January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like NYC won't be getting 3 feet after all. This can only mean good things for our February!

Central Park will be lucky to get much more than a foot. NYC closed down all public transportation and banned all non-emergency transportation though. Gonna be a tight East/West gradient.

 

Got a friend who just moved to Providence a couple weeks ago and they really may get close to 3 feet.

 

Pretty sure he's gonna think this is normal for them. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like NYC won't be getting 3 feet after all. This can only mean good things for our February!

 

Yup, downgraded to 16-24". I'll take a bust or two like that.

 

Fairbanks checked in at -43 this morning. Easily the coldest temps of the season. Eventually everywhere gets cold.

[Front Ranger]

The 0z GFS is a steaming pile of dead horse crap.

 

On to the Canadian!

[ShawniganLake]

The 0z GFS is a steaming pile of dead horse crap.

 

On to the Canadian!

were you expecting something else?

[stuffradio]

I no longer know what to think of the last two years of weather.

We were thinking like this with all the years in a row of -PDO... except Jesse was happy! Don't worry my jolly friends. JB keeps harping on a -PDO coming in the next year or two.

[Front Ranger]

were you expecting something else?

 

The models are pretty up in the air past day 4 right now. The 0z GFS was quite a bit different than the 18z. Nothing like the 12z Euro.

 

And now the 0z Canadian is showing a somewhat suppressed jet with pretty wet weather this weekend/early next week for much of the West Coast north of San Francisco. It's a different solution, but more similar to the Euro through day 7, more like the GFS after that. Nothing at all like the 12z Canadian.

 

Just awful run to run consistency with all the models right now. Euro has probably been closest to consistent.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like NYC won't be getting 3 feet after all. This can only mean good things for our February!

 

Seemed to be trending that way over the past day, it was always borderline at that location in terms of being too far west. Sure enough this happens shortly after the NYC mayor says it may be the biggest storm ever.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KJFK

 

Still looks pretty impressive in Boston, but this is no storm of the century:

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBOS

 

Sure would be nice to get some of that out this way; this region is certainly capable of those sort of snowfall totals but it's been awhile now.

[richard mann]

I miss December Jesse.

 

.. New kinda, "biscuit" / "flower". ? 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Central Park will be lucky to get much more than a foot. NYC closed down all public transportation and banned all non-emergency transportation though. Gonna be a tight East/West gradient.

 

Got a friend who just moved to Providence a couple weeks ago and they really may get close to 3 feet.

 

Pretty sure he's gonna think this is normal for them. 

 

My daugher lives one block away from Central Park--she can see it from her apartment.  About an hour ago, she said she had nearly 8 inches with fairly light snow.  Winds are a bit gusty and snow is blowing around.  I expect her to have more than 2 feet at her doorstop by the time this is over.

 

Going to suck for the New Yorkers--i'm guessing there's gonig to be some 4 to 5 foot drifts by this time tomorrow night.

[richard mann]

OMG!  Can we fix this right now ?

 

Can we stop Asia from dumping insane amounts of pollution into the environment ?  Maybe the sun will save us by becoming quiet and then we will be praying for more warmth ?  Maybe a big volcanic eruption ?

 

And guess what Jesse... this land will be buried in ice in the blink of a geological eye.   ALL THE TREES AND ANIMALS WILL DIE.    Just enjoy the ride because YOU DON'T CONTROL IT.   

 

We who, we. ?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a rough day at work and come home to read this! I will say 2013 wasn't a bad weather year. Epic fogversion in January, record rainfall in September, major arctic blast in December. I can live with that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I cant wait for this 65 degree garbage to go away til may. Just rediculous to feel the warm today in winter.

[ShawniganLake]

46/38 here today with a lot of fog. I would have rather had the 65 degree sun.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

46/38 here today with a lot of fog. I would have rather had the 65 degree sun.

 

Same, I'd gladly trade this muck for warm sunny weather; looking forward to February and the end of inversion season.

[snow_wizard]

At least the ECMWF looks good for frost on several days. Considerably lower 850s that we have been seeing and strong surface high pressure over the area on many days.

 

On another note...I sure blew my call for all day fog in Seattle today. I have no idea what went wrong. Pea soup fog when I went to bed last night and then it was magically clear this morning in spite of 100% humidity and very weak surface pressure gradients. This winter can't even get an inversion right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very dense fog in the Willamette Valley today. Some pretty serious car accidents as a result unfortunately. On my ride home tonight visibility was almost 0 east of Salem. Fogline was about 800' heading up the hill. 

 

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2015/01/26/serious-injury-crash-at-waconda-howell-prairie-roads/22383603/

 

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2015/01/26/fatal-linn-county/22386505/

[snow_wizard]

Very dense fog in the Willamette Valley today. Some pretty serious car accidents as a result unfortunately. On my ride home tonight visibility was almost 0 east of Salem. Fogline was about 800' heading up the hill. 

 

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2015/01/26/serious-injury-crash-at-waconda-howell-prairie-roads/22383603/

 

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2015/01/26/fatal-linn-county/22386505/

Totally mystifying why the fog never took hold in the Puget Sound area. Normally it's favored in cases like this.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS ENSO forecast has improved quite a bit in spite of the recent WWB.  Actually a number of chilly members for Nino 3.4.  Most of the really warm ones are the older runs.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next winter has a decent chance of ending up Neutral. I think it will be much more active. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=66145

[richard mann]

Greater Far West focused, ...
 
http://theweatherfor...california-weather-climate/?p=66151

[HighlandExperience]

Turns out the snow totals in New York City itself were not as impressive as originally hyped up to be.

 

Just under 8 inches recorded at Central Park, and 11 inches at the airport. Most of the heavy snowfall was concentrated to the North and East. Sounds like Long Island got some pretty good totals.

 

The suburbs just west of NYC only recieved 1-3 inches. Lots of weenies probably mad this morning.

[Prairiedog]

Global warming is clearly a joke that none of should take seriously. Let's all just pretend it isn't happening.

 

I will never bring it up again.

 

All of the plants and animals going extinct right now thanks to the actions of mankind in what is quickly becoming one of the great mass extinction events in the history of the planet just need to "nut up" too.

 

I'm sure none of this will ever come to bite us in the a**. It's all a joke that we should downplay or even outright ignore.

 

No one that smoked their first cigarette thought they'd come down with lung cancer, melanoma's, heart disease, and so on. Eventually it will bite you. One person driving their car, consuming natural resources or one farmer in the rainforest clearing an acre of trees to farm isn't going to make a difference. 7 billion people will make an impact. It will bite one day. The Earth reaches a tipping point where it cannot fix itself, cannot replenish and restore itself. That's just common sense and plenty of science to support that. Sure there are natural cycles but those will and are changing too. The Earth is simply becoming overwhelmed by the same thing cigarettes or poor diet does to one's body. Eat right, exercise, die any way, right? Denial. Unfortunately that sums up the attitude of too many people. The amount of pollution in our oceans is obscene. That's a game changer over time. The atmosphere isn't any different. I think that the tipping point has been reached for the Earth to be able to keep up with the stress/demand of humans. World population is projected to be around 9.6 billion give or take by 2050. Too many rats in a cage and they either eat each other or die of environmental conditions. Not a very comforting thought.

 

Such a scientifically sophisticated forum we have here.

 

Enjoy the disturbingly balmy January weather everyone. Why it's almost like JUNE-uary out there! LOL!!

[ShawniganLake]

Ridging anyone?

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[Parksvillewx]

Started out sunny and nice here this AM, now dense fog. Hopefully we can get some sun in the next few days.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the most recent upper level torch wiped out what little snow pack there was on Southern Vancouver Island.  A big February/ March recovery is seeming less likely this year than it was last year.  Currently Zero snow at 3700ft.

 

http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/data/asp/realtime/graphs/spd3b23p.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Huh.  The UKMET is showing something interesting for next Monday.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[liquidsnow]

Looks like the most recent upper level torch wiped out what little snow pack there was on Southern Vancouver Island.  A big February/ March recovery is seeming less likely this year than it was last year.  Currently Zero snow at 3700ft.

 

http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/data/asp/realtime/graphs/spd3b23p.gif

 

 

Stupid scientists. How come we can't invent something that is similar to snow, but immune to melting.

[bainbridgekid]

Huh.  The UKMET is showing something interesting for next Monday.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

The Euro is actually somewhat similar (though about 24 hours delayed and minus the big low)

 

Plenty of cold air pretty close by days 7-9.

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20150127185738-15596-0059.gif

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20150127185743-27329-0070.gif

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20150127185749-15610-0065.gif

 

GFS is very different though with flat ridging/zonal flow progressing East over the West Coast.

[HighlandExperience]

Well this upcoming pattern might shake things up.

 

Just to give you a comparison of how bad this winter has been in the mountains. I took this photo from the Summit of Mailbox Peak (near 5K) just outside of North Bend at the beginning of January. There was probably a couple of feet of snow.

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1558727226/@@images/2253f429-9c46-4614-836b-99c68a52d8a2.jpeg

 

 

I have never seen it this bad in late January (except for last year). This is really reminding me of the 04/05 winter season. This is what it looks like now:

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-26.4149284810/@@images/35d6aeee-08f9-4723-bb75-11deac313b12.jpeg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well this upcoming pattern might shake things up.

 

Just to give you a comparison of how bad this winter has been in the mountains. I took this photo from the Summit of Mailbox Peak (near 5K) just outside of North Bend at the beginning of January. There was probably a couple of feet of snow.

 

 

 

 

I have never seen it this bad in late January (except for last year). This is really reminding me of the 04/05 winter season. This is what it looks like now:

 

 

Honestly, that is really awful!  Truly an epic winter in the wrong way, if ya know what I mean. 

[richard mann]

So about that global warming discussion...

 

Never in the history of the Internet has an argument taken place that was successful in convincing an opposing party to change their view. I really wish some of you would simply 'agree to disagree' and move on when it starts to devolve to name calling or super snarky comments.

 

As for the discussion itself, ....

Not too much going on here today otherwise. So rather than to have just checked the "Like" button here, I'd like to perhaps point the different elements that I've "liked" of what you've said above Fred more "about the GW discussion". — As briefly as I can so as not to clutter up the thread here. And more rhetorically, if with there being potential perhaps certainly for you and I to talk about some of what I have here below via PM more, more privately.

 

First, in my view certainly, you've done a great job since having taken over the site and forum. I would say that, it's fairly apparent, to most if not all here, forum members or even guests .. tuning in, that your main thought is and has been, to manage and facilitate a broader forum, online, dedicated to the best discussion of both the weather and climate possible.

 

This with otherwise, in brief more elementally here, and relating to both this idea, and, your views stated above regarding the idea of there perhaps being a different thread—in this case it would in fact be a third—focused [more essentially] on"AGW or otherwise". . My own thoughts related / additional / resounding yours above on this subject are that .. with what you've suggested .. more negative, being the case, not only here, but just about anywhere you look where the subject is "discussed", that a discussion of the level that you suggested, more positive, carried out here—at this site—would ultimately be fairly unique.

 

And even, that with this, that were it carried out more successfully—if certainly ongoing where considering the idea and theme—[that] it might even just work as a general template for other discussion/s more topic / subject specific.

 

My view regarding your thoughts more focused on the parameters of such a discussion, is that a more specific set of parameters "could" certainly, be lain out and established where looking at the idea. (Established, pre-discussion.) Essentially, one more point by point, and with deference shown .. in acknowledgement, of whatever point—articulated more plainly and clearly—"made" and registered, then and before moving to the "next".

[epiceast]

Euro looks colder but worse. It looks pretty close to PNW lowland snow but very dry.

[Snowman5678]

Man I really wish I was back home on the east coast right now! My sister got just under a foot of snow in Morningside Heights. Over 2 feet at our place on the cape as of early this afternoon and with heavy snow continuing this afternoon and evening they could make a run for 30" . Friends and family in the Boston area all reporting between 24-36" of snow with higher drifts. 

[HighlandExperience]

Man I really wish I was back home on the east coast right now! My sister got just under a foot of snow in Morningside Heights. Over 2 feet at our place on the cape as of early this afternoon and with heavy snow continuing this afternoon and evening they could make a run for 30" . Friends and family in the Boston area all reporting between 24-36" of snow with higher drifts. 

 

Great for Boston, and the rest of New England. Meanwhile lots of people in NYC and the western subrubs are asking what all the hype is about.

 

I suppose I take some comfort knowing that somebody on the east coast got screwed 

[TT-SEA]

I have enjoyed all the nice days... but Ninos are also known for crap like today.   Dying fronts pushing in lots of low level moisture and drizzle with absolutely no definition.   I would much rather have a strong sharp front that this stuff.   And that would be more likely to dump snow on the mountains.    

[ShawniganLake]

I have enjoyed all the nice days... but Ninos are also known for crap like today. Dying fronts pushing in lots of low level moisture and drizzle with absolutely no definition. I would much rather have a strong sharp front that this stuff. And that would be more likely to dump snow on the mountains.

Beautiful day here. One of the nicest of the month. Sunny and mild.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day here. One of the nicest of the month. Sunny and mild.

 

 

You deserved it after missing out on so much of the nice weather lately.

[ShawniganLake]

You deserved it after missing out on so much of the nice weather lately.

Yea it's unusual to have it foggy and dull here while it's sunny in the Puget sound area. It's usually the other way around.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Well this upcoming pattern might shake things up.

 

Just to give you a comparison of how bad this winter has been in the mountains. I took this photo from the Summit of Mailbox Peak (near 5K) just outside of North Bend at the beginning of January. There was probably a couple of feet of snow.

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1558727226/@@images/2253f429-9c46-4614-836b-99c68a52d8a2.jpeg

 

 

I have never seen it this bad in late January (except for last year). This is really reminding me of the 04/05 winter season. This is what it looks like now:

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-26.4149284810/@@images/35d6aeee-08f9-4723-bb75-11deac313b12.jpeg

This reminds me of what has been going on in the Sierras this winter. The entire West is experiencing the lack of mountain snow right now and the ski resorts are suffering as a result.