Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z EURO Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 well its gotta dry up now MKX issued advisories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro had two real nice runs yesterday for eastern Iowa with about 0.37" of precip falling in CR, but the 12z took a big chunk of that back, knocking 1-2 inches off of the totals. The model average is around 0.25-0.30". That would be the best precip of the month, but it's still just another dimer. We are having trouble getting out of the nickel & dimer rut. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Starting to snow lightly here in LaSalle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro had two real nice runs yesterday for eastern Iowa with about 0.37" of precip falling in CR, but the 12z took a big chunk of that back, knocking 1-2 inches off of the totals. The model average is around 0.25-0.30". That would be the best precip of the month, but it's still just another dimer. We are having trouble getting out of the nickel & dimer rut. Yeah, I'm getting tired of this winter pattern, just suppressed enough to make it cold and dry more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll be happy with an inch of the northern fringe of this system. A big snow up here usually means rain in Chicago. I'll wait a couple weeks before I start cheering for the scenario. WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam dried up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 My forecast is calling for 8-12 inches! sweet!!! Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well this mornings overrunning snow event was a little more moist than expected, so hope that continues over to tonight. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam dried up Eh not a big deal. Did cut a few inches but Plumes as Tom was saying rised a bit. Either way, a solid 5-8 inches still looks good. Those 9 or 10 inch amounts will be pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 What is your guys thought for some freezing rain in northwest Indiana? Local papers saying freezing rain for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 As East Dubzz said, the overrunning event over IA/IL has produced 3-5" totals so far. I don't think that high of totals were expected. TWC has just alluded to this storm becoming an over achiever. They are predicting 5-8" for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 A model run is only a virtual reality of what it believes will happen. There will be a lot of moisture transported into this system so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 What is your guys thought for some freezing rain in northwest Indiana? Local papers saying freezing rain for tomorrow It's looking a bit cooler. Where you at by? I think there be more snow than anything. Might be some ice or plain rain as SLP moves up this way but not looking like anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 As East Dubzz said, the overrunning event over IA/IL has produced 3-5" totals so far. I don't think that high of totals were expected. TWC has just alluded to this storm becoming an over achiever. They are predicting 5-8" for Chicago.There can also be some convection associated with this sytem which could enhance rates. I could see certain areas picking up 10" and 12" lolipop not out of the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Impressive, just as I checked the SREF plumes they rose once again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 10 miles or so South of Gary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Impressive, just as I checked the SREF plumes they rose once again... That pretty interesting. Average is like .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 10 miles or so South of Gary You probably be mainly snow. If any ice does fall for period of time tommorow won't be anything significant but if so be careful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fluff that up to 10" at ORD or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Impressive, just as I checked the SREF plumes they rose once again... Can you find those for DBQ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 DTX going with WWA. EDIT: Still 5-7 inches for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks Dominic appreciate the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREF's for DBQ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GRR gonna go to advisory as well 5-7 inches. GRR:THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT THISTIME. FIRST... THERE IS NOT A REALLY WELL DEVELOPED UPPER SYSTEM ANDIT IS MORE AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE AT H5. SECOND... THE H8 LOWTRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH FROM MKG TO THE SAGINAW BAY... AND THE SFCLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP EITHER. MUCH OF THIS EVENT IS STRICTLYMID LEVEL FGEN RELATED AND IT IS VERY HARD TO NAIL DOWN IF/WHERE THEHEAVIER BANDS MAY SET UP AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. THE NAMSEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS A BIT RELATED TO THE STRONG FGENRESPONSE AND AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO ITS EXCESSIVEACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM looks like it is showing some LehS up by MKE area and north of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-257-0-59966300-1391200991.jpg That old run. New one like 6-7 inches or 7-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 My Grid forecast is up to 5-11"...1-3" tonight, 4-8" tomorrow...looks like there is more moisture with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Someone got the new LOT snow map? Heard they've got Chicago (and possibly ORD) in a strip of 8-10". EDIT: Dom & I think alike. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREF's for DBQ...Thanks! I like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 MKX posted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Corrected one. That would boost me up in my personal snowfall rankings to 8th place. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT mentioning there may be some Thundersnow mid morning when they heavier bands come through the area. Where is Jim Cantore??? He better be on Michigan Ave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Come on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have a real hard time buying into the SREF plume calculations. For Joliet it has 6" accum snow and .8 precip. The SR calculations must be really messed up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Impressive, just as I checked the SREF plumes they rose once again... That pretty interesting. Average is like .75. Don't worry, once gosaints sees this, I'm sure he'll claim ratios are down to 4:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT: AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING...ITAPPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME PERIODS OFHEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OFINTERSTATE 80. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRONG BAND OF MID LEVELFRONTOGENESIS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO A DECENT LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV.SIMILARLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...WITH EVEN A LITTLE CAPE NOTED FORPARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650 MB. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENTWITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW RATES AROUNDAN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS SATURDAY MORNING ANDPERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AROUND 0 TO-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...SUGGESTS THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GOODAGGREGATION OF SNOW FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW.OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A GOOD 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL FALLWITHIN HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG AND NORTH OFI-80...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SLIGHTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SNOW SHOULD ABATEFROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREASSOUTH APPEAR THAT THEY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW LATESATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. Get ready for some lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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