james1976 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Bud, those GFS ensembles are nice!Nice to see Euro back in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, the bickering is done now. I will delete any post that is an attack at another member and if you keep going, more actions will be taken. Don't want to test a man that is still bitter after the Blackhawks defeat last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Note the difference in northern stream strength, so this comes north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_030_300_wnd_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_024_300_wnd_ht.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good majority of the euro ensemble members are north of the op and several are really juiced/north with significant hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hearing the Euro ensembles are good hits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain/Snow line day3_psnow_gt_04.gifWell, that's cute lol... our area apparently has a 0% chance of 4". I've never been a fan of their maps though, they busted hard for us last year plenty of times. Rain/Snow breaking out 39-42hr on NAM in Eastern Nebraska, looks pretty similar to the 12z so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 day3_psnow_gt_04.gifMove that map a little more west and I'll be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z Euro Ens/Control....I took a look at the individual members and there are a few amped up solutions. However, most of them have a corridor of heavy snow similar to the ensemble map below, give or take 50-100 miles north/south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain/Snow line Well, that's cute lol... our area apparently has a 0% chance of 4". I've never been a fan of their maps though, they busted hard for us last year plenty of times. Rain/Snow breaking out 39-42hr on NAM in Eastern Nebraska, looks pretty similar to the 12z so far.You gotta remember that is just from 00Z SUN to 00Z MOn-- doesn't take into account anything before that. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM stronger with northern stream energy but is going to narrowly miss a phase but step in the right direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Still has that nasty northern cutoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Another miss for Nebraska. Time to wave the white flag me thinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 I like not being in the bullseye a few days out. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 This keeps looking worse for Lincoln. Ugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 This keeps looking worse for Lincoln. Ugh.Another one bites the dust. Literally. Because there could likely be blowing dust here soon enough. I hope the GGEM is onto something. I wish we could phase this puppy sooner. NAM actually gives us a hefty amount of precip but it starts as rain. Again, like last year, we should be willing to take anything, to prevent the drought from getting even worse here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Raging rain storm it looks like ugh oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snow maps are close to being real good for me just need to do a little slight shifting. Go 12 repeat Superbowl titles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Another one bites the dust. Literally. Because there could likely be blowing dust here soon enough. I hope the GGEM is onto something. I wish we could phase this puppy sooner. NAM actually gives us a hefty amount of precip but it starts as rain. Again, like last year, we should be willing to take anything, to prevent the drought from getting even worse here.Yup. Not looking good water wise here in NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yup. Not looking good water wise here in NE. Strangely enough, the EURO now gives us the most snow. I'm not sure why this can't phase sooner with a wide open GOM. This could really be a bowling ball if it just phased quicker. Haven't really looked at a SLP map so I guess I can't see the low position. Are there still 2 different lows that eject seperately?? EDIT: 18z GFS looks way more amped than the NAM at 36 hr. Precip is much more widespread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Strangely enough, the EURO now gives us the most snow. I'm not sure why this can't phase sooner with a wide open GOM. This could really be a bowling ball if it just phased quicker. Haven't really looked at a SLP map so I guess I can't see the low position. Are there still 2 different lows that eject seperately?? EDIT: 18z GFS looks way more amped than the NAM at 36 hr. Precip is much more widespread. Eh, pretty bad for Nebraska still. All the moisture seems to stay down in Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Eh, pretty bad for Nebraska still. All the moisture seems to stay down in Kansas.Yup. It's a horrible run for us, actually. Doesn't even look like a dusting. Central Illinois will do very well with this storm. I'm a few runs away from writing this guy off. EDIT: Chicago does pretty well with this, although it's further east, the cutoff isn't nearly as strong. 3-5" is plausible with 6" down near Kankakee. Meh. Can't win around here man! 2 years in a row Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GFS a little farther north I'd say.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GFS full run...I'd like to see what the ensembles show this run...looks like 4-5" for ORD, maybe more if LES turns out better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Even brings an inch or two up here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Are these maps showing accurate totals with correct ratios? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 A whopping .2" of precipitation around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Even brings an inch or two up hereThe northern stream seems to be getting a bit better each run for you up there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Are these maps showing accurate totals with correct ratios? Thanks!They seem to be with the 18z GFS showing between 0.2 - 0.3qpf...temps are in the low 20's to fluff up those totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is depressing. I get excited after the EURO and intrigued after the NAM and boom lol. Not our winter. Nice looking snow for central Illinois and central Indiana though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice write-up by LOT:SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE INCREASINGPOTENTIAL OF A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS AT LEASTPORTIONS OF MY AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURINGTHIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS NOWEJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONGTHE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THISFEATURE WILL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BYFRIDAY MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THENORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THEWESTERN CONUS. THE MAIN COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...IS IF ANDHOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...EMANATING FROM THESOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH...GETS TAPPED INTO BY THIS DIGGING SYSTEM.MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OFRUNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GETSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE MAIN KEYS THATWILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL ENDS UP GETTINGACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIRMASS/COLD FRONTALPASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ISEXPECTED TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF A STOUT 1044MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAYNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLYRIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF MY CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THESAME TIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP TOOUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULDRESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD AIR ACROSSMISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARSTHIS SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS BYSATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY END UP IMPACTING MOST OF MY AREA TO SOMEDEGREE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENTBAND OF FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDORINTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH THE925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULDRESULT IN SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON WHEREEXACTLY THIS ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING SETS UP IS LOW AT THISTIME...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS 60+ HOURS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOSTAREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THEPOTENTIAL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ISCERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FORLAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSSNORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILLSOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLYOFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIRMASS...FEATURING 850 MBTEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SHOULD ALSO PRODUCEFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGSINDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 5-6,000 FEET...WHICHSHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...WE CANTRULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONSOF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REMAINED A BITCONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY DUETO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 29, 2015 Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 A whopping .2" of precipitation around here. Yup. I am right there with ya. If we didn't have all that rain in the late fall, we would be in a serious situation right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here is LOT's take on snowfall totals this far out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good map! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 I hope we can see some better phasing potential as this gets closer. With many ensembles still showing some amplified solutions, I don't think that can be ruled out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 Last couple nights the 0z runs looked pretty darn good so here's to tonight's runs...cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM further N with precip in IA--- even further N then 12Z -- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gonna be a good run for Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 30, 2015 Report Share Posted January 30, 2015 Cheers 6 beers in waiting g for models and watching badgers east on the ice tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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