Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Tonight's Euro Weekly Ensemble run is hands down one of the most cold/stormy runs I have seen thus far this season from the Plains to the Lakes. It all starts the following week and doesn't let go through at least the first week in March (when the model stops). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z WRF...for the Tue/Wed Clipper...what do you think guys, should I start a Thread combining this Clipper with the one Wed/Thu??? If this one fluffs up to two or three inches, MKE could surpass its February snow average in just three or four days, and we weren't even the epicenter of the weekend storm lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 hate to have that .50" blob over parts of lincoln with this much time left until the snow. can you imagine?? .5 could be anywhere from 6-9" with good ratios. The snowpack here would be the deepest i've seen in lincoln. Hopefully WRF is onto something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Local mets mentioning some places could get 6 inches or more if under a heavy band along with frontogeneis. Looks good for me in central Nebraska. Even showing 7 or more just northwest of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 can you imagine?? .5 could be anywhere from 6-9" with good ratios. The snowpack here would be the deepest i've seen in lincoln. Hopefully WRF is onto something.it would be awesome no doubt, but usually every time in bulls-eye this far out isn't a good thing; especially if it's a narrow band of snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Agreed. Not being in seems to work, dont get me wrong...you want to be D**n close as at nears Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z nam seems wetter for nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM is super juiced. Gotta love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00znam_zpse7m4axdj.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 I started a thread for the 2/4 - 2/5 system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nice donuthole in Iowa. Haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nice donuthole in Iowa. Haha I'm thinking you have a real nice snowpack in your area, I'm guessing 15"?? I have relatives that live in Des Moines and they got hammered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 I wonder how much real estate we can cover with snow this month and how deep we can get it. Currently, 43.4% of the lower 48 covered with snow with an avg depth of 3.8". http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201502/nsm_depth_2015020205_National.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Local met says "no storm over 4" since Christmas" just as he shows WWA posted 1 county south yet again. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Local met says "no storm over 4" since Christmas" just as he shows WWA posted 1 county south yet again. This WWA isn't for a 4" or more storm anyway, just a quick hitting clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 LOT bullish with the clipper today/tonight especially up by Geos. Anywhere from 1" south to 5" up by the border looks to be in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z Euro snowfall for the next 6 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z Euro snowfall for the next 6 days. It must be showing that weekend event as all snow, I know GEM is more bullish on freezing rain with that one vs snow, really hoping the Euro pulls a coup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yea, not sure what is going to happen with this weekends system but at least we are in an active pattern and storms to track. The GFS looks brutally cold down the road as you can see by the map below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 This WWA isn't for a 4" or more storm anyway, just a quick hitting clipper. I know the WWA is for 2-3" and mainly because it occurs during the afternoon drive. Just venting my frustration is all. It's been a season of near misses. On a positive note, i'm liking the setup in the next 7 days or so. NW flow setting up a nice baroclinic zone along with a steady supply of clippers. Someone in the upper Midwest should see a decent snow event this weekend. NWS GRB AFD FOR THE WEEKEND...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WI. MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN WHEN/WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...BUT ARE ALL POINTING TOWARD THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR IOWA/IL SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER JET DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE TO ASSIST IN SYNOPTIC LIFT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ AND LFQ OF A COUPLE JETS...BUT TIME/LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES CAN CHANGE AND ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS WELL. WHERE ALL THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS TO LIKELY JUST YET...BUT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS THIS EVENT BECOMES CLEARER. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Some pretty intense bands setting up in S MN. GoSaints prob going to cash in on these and S WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 LOT bullish with the clipper today/tonight especially up by Geos. Anywhere from 1" south to 5" up by the border looks to be in play. What model was showing that much. I heard 3" at most. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS not showing much. What are other models showing? are there anymore snowstorms on the horizon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 What model was showing that much. I heard 3" at most.From LOT this morning AFD: WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TOSEE ISOLATED SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES IF THE BANDDEVELOPS REACHES ITS APPARENT FULL POTENTIAL...BUT GOING TO BE TOOCLOSE OF A CALL TO TELL IF IT IS EXTREME SOUTHERN WI OR FARNORTHERN IL UNDER THE GUN. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR NOW AND BRIEF DAYSHIFT ABOUT CONCERNS AND TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z Euro getting more and more juiced up with the weekend storm hitting the Lakes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Some pretty intense bands setting up in S MN. GoSaints prob going to cash in on these and S WI.Dry air was an issue just light snow now. ramping up some though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015020312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png Total snowfall through 240 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015020312/gem_asnow_us_40.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 GGEM/EURO starting to converge on a significant Lakes event. GFS playing catch up. Might have to start a Thread for this system tomorrow. Edit: Euro also keeping very cold winds off the lake for 24+ hours in WI, then eventually into NE IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looking at radar heavier bands starting to develop farther south in Illinois for this clipper. Something to keep an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSMY Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Tom, thank you for the informative posts. Can you show the latest snowfall Euro to include SEMI? Thanks from the MI peeps looking to benefit! - Update - So sorry just got it to expand! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 EURO snowfall for this weekend: http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-27349-1422988114_thumb.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 ripping good here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 ripping good hereHeard over 5" in spots up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Heard over 5" in spots up north.Owatonna 5.5. Wont get that here but maybe somewhere 30 miles south will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Radar looks ominous right now. Nothing falling yet in Racine. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 Flakes starting to fly...radar really filled in for N IL...should rip pretty good for a couple hours... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 The radar looks good for 1-2 inches over here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 The radar looks good for 1-2 inches over here.Yup, looks decent to get a nice refresher. My current snow depth is a little over 14"...should easily bring it above 15" tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z JMA trying to dig the storm next weekend out farther SW into the Plains/Midwest...earily similar to where the first piece set up with the Christmas Eve system in the Central CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2015 Report Share Posted February 3, 2015 This mentioned clipper like system will be able to draw in moisture from the GOM. Wherever the baroclinic zone sets up shop that's where the heavier snows will deliver. Plenty of time to watch this one unfold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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