Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Latest CFSv2 now has 3 out of 4 members showing a massive snow cover by March 1st....ridiculous cold continues to show up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Chicago could end up Top 5 coldest February on record depending on how severe the arctic shots become over the coming 2 weeks. If the snow pack builds in the coming days, this could get ugly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 OUCH!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 What a harsh evening out here. Temps dropped to 10 above with 30-40 wind gusts and snow showers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Houston-- we have a problem. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS/GGEM/EURO all showing a system next weekend somewhere in the central CONUS that will tug down some of the coldest air of this season. Check out the 00z Euro Ensembles. It's going to be a brutal finish to this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 According to my humble calculations and a LRC cycle of around 47-48 days (per Gary Lezak's post a few days ago) the Upper Midwest should be due for a wet system around the late February time frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 JMA Weeklies continue to show no sign of Winter letting go anytime soon over the next 4 weeks. Towards the end of February the Pacific jet is showing signs of it slamming into Cali which should provide some interesting systems to monitor down the road. Check out that blocking HP near Alaska/NW NAMER...doesn't budge at all. Both the CFSv2/JMA are showing some sings of the SE ridge building as we head closer towards March in the southeast. By that time, Spring warmth will begin to build and create huge temperature contrasts by late Feb/early March. Recipe for explosive storm systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 There is a Blizzard Watch for the Boston area. Its never ending for them this year, 8-14inches+ is expected there. They are seriously buried. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 They could have over 45 inches in the next 17 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is brutal outside. Currently @ 4F. Going into the minus single digits tonight. To be exact, -6F! Still plenty of snowcover around. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Saw a rather large group of robins this morning. I know they're supposed to be the first "sign" of spring coming around the corner. It wasn't even that warm here this morning(low 20s) when I saw them, so was pretty surprised. Ready to be done with this craptastc winter. I am getting the spring, severe weather, storm chasing itch!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 there is one sign that spring is around the corner is with the robins and the mourning doves begin to come out in february early march and migrate back in late august so that means that is a sign of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wildest runs of this Winter yet on the 12z GFS and 06z CFSv2....Would be an unthinkable arctic attack Week 1-2 and what's even more intriguing is the potential for some decent snow systems. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if we missed this coming storm. The pattern ahead is looking very interesting if you like all aspects of Winter. GFS/EURO Ensembles are in remarkable agreement that this cold pattern is here to stay for a while. Anyhow, here is the latest 06z CFSv2 run for the rest of Feb, next 45 days and its still painting snow on the ground by March 30th which is a cold signal! SE ridge is becoming more evident as we get closer towards March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Check out the 10mb warming continuously persistent over North America. Some of the coldest air of this season is going to brew up in Canada early next week, possibly even colder during the last week of the month. The warming in the upper atmosphere is lining up quite well where the coldest air will end up being over the next 2-4 weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 We just need some storms to get brewing as long as the cold is around but it sure doesn't look too exciting for the next week or so. Hoping models will change in the next couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like we could see some LE snow showers Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here we've made it through Nov, Dec, Jan and the first half of Feb, with nothing more than a 2" sloppy snow in mid Dec and a seasonal total of 5.3 inches. This winter has been a total joke. Looking forward to spring......... Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 We need a -PNA, enough said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Under performer for temps today. I think so far the high has been 20°. -5° this morning before sunrise. I think if anyone gets any accumulation in IL from LES this weekend it will be eastern Cook County. This winter has had sort bursts of exciting weather followed by long boring stretches. In another boring stretch for sure now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow, eerily quiet on this forum! I have a request for some of you meteorological experts out there. I'm skiing in the American Birkebeiner cross country ski race next Saturday and I'm wondering what to expect up there in far NW WI. First off, I'm glad the race is not today! Right now at 8am it's -8 in Hayward, WI with WNW winds of 25mph. Ouch! The point-and-click forecasts show more moderate temperatures in the teens by next Saturday. However, I don't usually put a lot of faith in the point-and-click weather apps this far out. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not that anyone cares, but this clipper has been generous over here in SMI. Have gotten almost 5 inches since yesterday evening and had +SN for about 90 mins when the arctic front came through. I live right in town (old close homes) and even here had whiteout conditions! Snow OTG now averaging about 15". Worst conditions for any of my addresses since Dec 2000 Bliz! Very nice VD treat to wake up to over here in SWMI. Cheers! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow, eerily quiet on this forum! I have a request for some of you meteorological experts out there. I'm skiing in the American Birkebeiner cross country ski race next Saturday and I'm wondering what to expect up there in far NW WI. First off, I'm glad the race is not today! Right now at 8am it's -8 in Hayward, WI with WNW winds of 25mph. Ouch! The point-and-click forecasts show more moderate temperatures in the teens by next Saturday. However, I don't usually put a lot of faith in the point-and-click weather apps this far out. Any input would be appreciated. ThanksAccording to the latest GFS runs, looks there looks to be another arctic blast brewing next weekend and Hayward, WI looks to be sub-zero Saturday morning and single digits during the day. Not that anyone cares, but this clipper has been generous over here in SMI. Have gotten almost 5 inches since yesterday evening and had +SN for about 90 mins when the arctic front came through. I live right in town (old close homes) and even here had whiteout conditions! Snow OTG now averaging about 15". Worst conditions for any of my addresses since Dec 2000 Bliz! Very nice VD treat to wake up to over here in SWMI. Cheers!I was actually thinking about you down there. We had some brief snow showers around here but nothing compared to what you guys are experiencing in SW MI. It must be crazy looking out there. Post some pics if you can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region. The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region. The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week.Yeah, it shows both Wednesday and Thursday with highs below zero with wind chills between -25 to -35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, it shows both Wednesday and Thursday with highs below zero with wind chills between -25 to -35.Yup, looks nasty. BTW, are you getting hit by this snow squall??? Man, it def looks beautiful out there when the visibility drops and the powder blowing around. I was hoping to cash in on some decent squalls today to make the scene look better and hopefully put a layer of powder on top of the ice glacier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup, looks nasty. BTW, are you getting hit by this snow squall??? Man, it def looks beautiful out there when the visibility drops and the powder blowing around. I was hoping to cash in on some decent squalls today to make the scene look better and hopefully put a layer of powder on top of the ice glacier.Yeah I did, it was pretty sweet. Sun is out now over here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey Tom, Thanks for your reply to my post on conditions in NW WI next week. Unfortunately, you're confirming my suspicions regarding the long-range forecast. I'm thinking hard wax on the skis, toe warmers in the boots and layered clothing are the way to go for next Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region. The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week.Cold out here too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cold out here too?You guys will be riding the edge with the lack of any snow cover, but still fairly cold. Some impressive cold showing up and looks like we are going to be locked into a wintry pattern for the foreseeable future. Just need to see some snow systems to start popping up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Next Saturday nw Wisconsin will likely be cold, but it appears that area will be in between arctic blasts so it could be a lot worse. The rest of the month looks pretty brutal. The GFS and GEM show another pocket of -30 850mb air dropping south into the upper midwest at day 10. This pattern is locked in. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 La Porte County Sheriff's Office STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLAREDLa Porte County is now under a state of emergency. All citizens are to remain off the roadways. Further, the sheriffs department will NOT respond to property damage crashes. We ask that the drivers exchange information. Roadways are in horrible condition, the department has been overwhelmed with personal injury crashes, including two involving our deputies who were injured.Again we ask that YOU STAY OFF THE ROADWAY. Don't try to generate a justification for being out. STAY HOME Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 wagons south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THISEVENING......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THISEVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED ABLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THISWINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Brutal out there today. Had a few snow squalls this morning that looked impressive for a little while. 0.1" only though. That would be really amazing if Kentucky got up to 20" of snow! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GFS is terrible. Way cold and totally dry for the next 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anybody want to argue the LRC's long range accuracy??? We are in the midst of the cold phase and this should last through the end of the month. Plains will see a big rebound end of the month. Hopefully we can see some snow systems in between the arctic onslaughts throughout the remaining 2 weeks of this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Without snow who needs this cold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah who wants just cold? Let's move on to spring already! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah who wants just cold? Let's move on to spring already!I like the cold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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