February 2015 PNW Discussion

[richard mann]

.. I've heard that ...


.... , WeatherPhil

(.. forks all ready. ?)

[Phil]

Seems to me the globe was fairly warm in 2014.

Yeah, it kinda was, particularly at the sea surface. Elsewhere, including the lower troposphere and land surface, it was nothing remarkable.

 

Thing is, you should expect a big jump in global temps under the influence of a +ENSO/-QBO/+HC/+PDO/+AAM regime..I'm surprised the warmth wasn't more widespread, actually.

 

Nevertheless, all we care about are trends and standard deviations..which are fairly unremarkable..see the data from NCDC, HADCRUT4, and RSS below:

 

NCDC

 

 

HADCRUT4

 

 

RSS

 

[HighlandExperience]

Seems to me the globe was fairly warm in 2014.

 

Yup.

[richard mann]

.. And, that ....

[Front Ranger]

I can guarantee most of you would be 100% as miserable in the dominant pattern we've experienced this winter if the globe was 1F cooler. It really makes little difference.

 

The mountains would still have little snow, the lowlands would have gotten no more snow, CA would still be in a drought, and the East would still be getting slammed with snow/cold.

 

If the weather this winter has driven you crazy, global warming is just a big, bad scapegoat that has very little to do with it in reality.

[Skagit Weather]

Appears I had a rogue wind gust here around 4am. The 40mph gust ties for the strongest gust I have measured since I began my station in 2008. Also it was the one of only two gusts above 30mph at all since yesterday. It seems that sometimes my strongest gusts are when I am least expecting it. Also been in the rain shadow for the last couple days so have only accumulated about an inch of rain in February so far.

[Deweydog]

Appears I had a rogue wind gust here around 4am. The 40mph gust ties for the strongest gust I have measured since I began my station in 2008. Also it was the one of only two gusts above 30mph at all since yesterday. It seems that sometimes my strongest gusts are when I am least expecting it. Also been in the rain shadow for the last couple days so have only accumulated about an inch of rain in February so far.

Flatiron warned it was gonna be a crazy a** month!

[BLI snowman]

I can guarantee most of you would be 100% as miserable in the dominant pattern we've experienced this winter if the globe was 1F cooler. It really makes little difference.

 

The mountains would still have little snow, the lowlands would have gotten no more snow, CA would still be in a drought, and the East would still be getting slammed with snow/cold.

 

If the weather this winter has driven you crazy, global warming is just a big, bad scapegoat that has very little to do with it in reality.

 

Portland probably gets sticking snow on November 13, FWIW.

[Jesse]

Seems to me the globe was fairly warm in 2014.

Stop overreacting.

[Deweydog]

Stop overreacting.

I can't help you unless you want to help yourself.

 

#tonyrobbins

[Jesse]

I can't help you unless you want to help yourself.

 

#tonyrobbins

I was painted by you as an overreacting alarmist for making similar statements regarding our record warm stretch last year and the fact that it happened to coincide with a warmer globe.

 

Not saying that one is directly responsible for the other, but it's also not like our region was a warm outlier in a cool globe overall.

 

#aslowlywarmingclimatemakeswarmstretchesliketheonewe'recurrentlyinmorelikely

[Phil]

Anyone else getting tired of the continuous 1993-94 re-run? The large scale global circulations have been essentially stagnant since the 3rd week of January 2013..over two years now.

 

Only notable changes have occurred in the tropics, in the form of a very low-freq Walker/Hadley progression into something more reminiscent of a +ENSO ratio. If this fails to complete, which is looking more likely, we may end up back in the same pattern next winter, minus the raging +PNA. So..2013-14 repeat? Lol

[Deweydog]

I was painted by you as an overreacting alarmist for making similar statements regarding our record warm stretch last year and the fact that it happened to coincide with a warmer globe.

 

Not saying that one is directly responsible for the other, but it's also not like our region was a warm outlier in a cool globe overall.

 

#aslowlywarmingclimatemakeswarmstretchesliketheonewe'recurrentlyinmorelikely

Again, if you can't see the difference I'm not sure what to tell you. You've lost it a bit since last fall, probably after a September payoff failed to occur after a steamy summer. Point is, as it has been all along, that our state of affairs with respect to global warming/climate change were the same four years ago when we were basking in nina greatness. You have here and now-itis. And it's a nasty case, too.

[TT-SEA]

Nice evening... dry and warm.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is turning out to be a pretty epic snow storm for NW BC. Kitimat is sitting at about 120cm (47 inches) with more on the way, and Terrace is approaching a 24 hour record at 111cm (44 inches) so far. Looks like another 6-12 inches on the way.

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/terrace-kitimat-experience-record-breaking-snowfall-1.2948934

[richard mann]

This is turning out to be a pretty epic snow storm for NW BC. ...

.. Things "snow" wise could be getting better generally—even more south.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

 

I'm kind of surprised that there's not a bit more at least, model assessment / focused discussion, going on here.

[DareDuck]

Nice to see about 4" of snow at the base of bachelor since 4pm. Was afraid it was going to be all rain

[richard mann]

Nice to see about 4" of snow at the base of bachelor since 4pm. Was afraid it was going to be all rain

Right. I'm noting that their main "conditions" page says that they're expecting colder conditions generally with the continuation of this line-up of systems more active.

 

— A decent February perhaps. ?  @  (Low profile.)

[DareDuck]

Right. I'm noting that their main "conditions" page says that they're expecting colder conditions generally with the continuation of this line-up of systems more active.

 

— A decent February perhaps. ? @ (Low profile.)

Conditions reports from ski resorts are full of crap and wish casting. It's hard to fake a snow stake cam though. Bachelor isn't as bad as other resorts that turn 6" into a foot.

 

At this point any snow is good snow. Northwest exp needs to reopen.

[richard mann]

.. Granted. Of course.

[Deweydog]

Nice evening... dry and warm.

 

Mild here, but the rain has moved back in!  Similar to a year ago right now, we're scoring while you guys are snoring!  

[Deweydog]

-

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0300.jpg

 

 source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm

 

More broader!!!

[Deweydog]

(What does this above, mean exactly. Cousin "Dog". ?)

 

— Most times I can gather at least something of what you've meant to infer. But this I can't intuit. 

 

.. Another "clew", perhaps. ?

 

**(more less inclusive, by representing perspective without elucidation or circumference .. )**

 

Annotated more slightly, but in jest, ... calling surreptitiously in at least less for and [in reference] to another realm speaking astronomically. ?  

[Deweydog]

Apparently your playing to "win". 

 

—  Let me search out the reference. 

 

[Deweydog]

It's the "ship". Right. ?

 

No, it's a snowy mountain!!!  Something that will likely be a thing of the past in the 10-20 years across the globe.  

[richard mann]

More than a guantlet. 

 

"It's a rip". Appreciate the undue attention.  

 

Purposeful non-sense. Merit less.

 

(Your witness.)

[Deweydog]

More than a guantlet. 

 

"It's a rip". Appreciate the undue attention.  

 

Purposeful non-sense. Merit less.

 

(Your witness.)

 

Move to strike!

[richard mann]

.. If it will help the course of justice.

[richard mann]

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/GOES-10-0600.jpg

[Dan the Weatherman]

Anyone else getting tired of the continuous 1993-94 re-run? The large scale global circulations have been essentially stagnant since the 3rd week of January 2013..over two years now.

 

Only notable changes have occurred in the tropics, in the form of a very low-freq Walker/Hadley progression into something more reminiscent of a +ENSO ratio. If this fails to complete, which is looking more likely, we may end up back in the same pattern next winter, minus the raging +PNA. So..2013-14 repeat? Lol

What on earth needs to happen to shake up this pattern to get us in a different regime? I am absolutely fed up with this pattern since 2013 due to the terrible drought in CA. 1993-94 was wetter here in Socal than these winters since 2013 have been.

 

At least right now CA is getting some significant rains, which is a very good thing in itself to help replenish the reservoirs, but we need to build up the snowpack as well and that is impossible with sky-high snow levels.

[Tyler Mode]

Here are the low temps for Fairbanks this month so far.  I wish a little bit of this would come down here:

1st: -24
2nd: -22
3rd: -28
4th: -29
5th: -36
6th: -40
7th: -43 (so far)

They are averaging -14.7 from normal!

[stuffradio]

My cousins have 70 inches of snow from just a few days up north.

[Tyler Mode]

So far the most exciting weather day of the year sadly haha.

 

26 mph wind, 53 currently with 0.51" of rain so far.

[Jesse]

**(more less inclusive, by representing perspective without elucidation or circumference .. )**

 

Annotated more slightly, but in jest, ... calling surreptitiously in at least less for and [in reference] to another realm speaking astronomically. ?

Why spend time with family when you can pick on Richard, completely unprovoked, at 11pm on a Friday night?

[Jesse]

Again, if you can't see the difference I'm not sure what to tell you. You've lost it a bit since last fall, probably after a September payoff failed to occur after a steamy summer. Point is, as it has been all along, that our state of affairs with respect to global warming/climate change were the same four years ago when we were basking in nina greatness. You have here and now-itis. And it's a nasty case, too.

Find a post where I've said warming has accelerated, or that the pace of warming has otherwise changed, in the last several years. Then we'll have a discussion.

 

When the globe has a record warm year, coupled with lengthy stretch of unprecedented warmth regionally, it should come as no surprise that people are talking about it a bit more. I am sorry that it bothers you so much.

[stuffradio]

Find a post where I've said warming has accelerated, or that the pace of warming has otherwise changed, in the last several years. Then we'll have a discussion.

 

When the globe has a record warm year, coupled with lengthy stretch of unprecedented warmth regionally, it should come as no surprise that people are talking about it a bit more. I am sorry that it bothers you so much.

It's no surprise the discussion on the warming is the main focus during a +PDO though. Remember how we were talking about how much it was torching in 2011? Me neither.

[Jesse]

It's no surprise the discussion on the warming is the main focus during a +PDO though. Remember how we were talking about how much it was torching in 2011? Me neither.

 

Thanks for agreeing with me?

[stuffradio]

Thanks for agreeing with me?

I didn't agree or disagree. It just feels like we're having IMBY-itis. On the East coast they're probably talking about Global cooling the last two years. In the middle of the country they're probably indifferent with the variations of weather they get. During a -PDO we don't really have this much torching. I remember much of the Summer that wasn't of 2011 it was mostly in the 60's and sometimes in the low 70's. We had marine push after marine push. It was a mostly socked in Summer of clouds with rain from time to time. That was horrible, and no one should wish for that kind of Summer. (No one!)

[TT-SEA]

I didn't agree or disagree. It just feels like we're having IMBY-itis. On the East coast they're probably talking about Global cooling the last two years. In the middle of the country they're probably indifferent with the variations of weather they get. During a -PDO we don't really have this much torching. I remember much of the Summer that wasn't of 2011 it was mostly in the 60's and sometimes in the low 70's. We had marine push after marine push. It was a mostly socked in Summer of clouds with rain from time to time. That was horrible, and no one should wish for that kind of Summer. (No one!)

 

 

I agree completely.   The summers of 2010 and 2011 were pretty disgusting.    Regardless of how winter plays out... there is never a reason to wish away the best season of the year in our region.

 

 

Have you been to Silver Star in Vernon?    We were planning to go to Silver Mountain in Idaho but getting nervous about snow conditions and Silver Star looks much better right now.    We booked a room as a back up there starting 2/15.

[stuffradio]

I agree completely.   The summers of 2010 and 2011 were pretty disgusting.    Regardless of how winter plays out... there is never a reason to wish away the best season of the year in our region.

 

 

Have you been to Silver Star in Vernon?    We were planning to go to Silver Mountain in Idaho but getting nervous about snow conditions and Silver Star looks much better right now.    We booked a room as a back up there starting 2/15.

I have not been there. You might as well fly north to Kitimat! They got hammered the last two days with 70" of snow.