February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

Back when global warming wasn't such an issue.

A simpler, happier time.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So after viewing the 12z GFS I just want to know if we can give up on anything good happening this year already? Yes every week or two the GFS will give us a little **** tease, but that is about it. 

I think there is some wishful thinking but not a lot of support that is will happen, just small teases that people grasp onto. I do believe we will come out of this but it will be gradual back and fourth and likely start to occur around mid spring (April). I do not feel spring will be an epic washout, but the ridge will have less of impact. We will get some snow around that time in the mountains but overall it will be a massively below normal year. Then again, that is me...

[TT-SEA]

Summer-like sky of alto-cumulus clouds with the bare Casacades in the distance.   Also noticed lots of bees out and about today.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

You must have a minor moss problem if your lawn get's greener right away.  I use Scotts as well but my lawn turns black from all the dead moss until new grass takes over.  It's actually very ugly for a couple weeks at least.

I have to rake out the moss or the grass never grows in. 

[TT-SEA]

My wife planted hellebores on the rock walls... they look great now.  

 

[Jesse]

Way too early.

 

The well above normal regime ends in a couple days. After that, all it would take is one decent cold snap (something similar to late Dec from anomaly standpoint) to really drop the monthly anomaly.

Not sure if you've checked the models recently, but next week is looking pretty warm now. That will leave us with about eight days to mitigate what should be a pretty hefty warm anomaly by then.

 

Heck, even if the month ended today it would be the warmest Feb ever for PDX.

[HighlandExperience]

Not sure if you've checked the models recently, but next week is looking pretty warm now. That will leave us with about eight days to mitigate what should be a pretty hefty warm anomaly by then.

 

Heck, even if the month ended today it would be the warmest Feb ever for PDX.

 

Feels like June up there today. Looks like the Gulf of Mexico will be colder than us next week.

 

http://seattletimes.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/northwesttraveler/files/2015/02/SnipImage2.jpg

[stuffradio]

I'm at 16.33 inches of rain so far for the calendar year of 2015. I only need like 65 inches more to get average. Wooooo

[richard mann]

Here is my lawn now... patches of moss but mostly grass.   If you don't keep up on killing the moss it will destroy the lawn and there be almost no grass left.  I do the fertilizer with moss killer at least twice a year to get a clean start.  I will post an after picture next week.

 

 

.. If you want more "moss", you could put out some birdseed.

 

— Maybe where the birds are eating it, they might also find themselves interested in pecking up and having some "lawn", with it.

 

My wife is outside right now, putting some out on our pebbly gravel driveway. 

[TT-SEA]

67 degrees here right now with alto-cumulus clouds and sun.

 

Working from home... have all the doors open and it really feels like a nice May day.

[Timmy]

67 degrees here right now with alto-cumulus clouds and sun.

 

Working from home... have all the doors open and it really feels like a nice May day.

it is just 2 degrees warmer in Brownsville TX, in extreme south TX...

[ShawniganLake]

67 degrees here right now with alto-cumulus clouds and sun.

 

Working from home... have all the doors open and it really feels like a nice May day.

Lucky. 48F with 0.25" of rain here today.

[stuffradio]

67 degrees here right now with alto-cumulus clouds and sun.

 

Working from home... have all the doors open and it really feels like a nice May day.

Lucky you. It's cloudy and raining here all day.

[TT-SEA]

60 at SEA.

[weather girl]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 have already dropped a bunch and Nino 3.4 is only +0.5. The Nino was too weak this winter to blame what happened on ENSO. There were other factors at play.

 

I believe you, of course, but it sure seems like an ENSO pattern.

 

For me it doesn't necessarily need to get colder---warmer even would be fine. Just something different. Warm and foggy interspersed with tropical rain. Blech. Although it is nice this afternoon.

 

Well, you know its going to break sometime.

[Parksvillewx]

I've been noticing the frogs croaking like crazy at dusk lately. Pretty early but I guess that's on par with the temps lately. Must think it's spring..like everyone else.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=70105

[bainbridgekid]

60 at SEA.

They hit 62. Yet another near record warm day.

[Front Ranger]

Models really went for a dive in the toilet today. I blame SW's overconfidence last night - usually a big time jinx.

[Guest Winterdog]

luvssnow_seattle, on 12 Feb 2015 - 12:33 PM, said:

I have to rake out the moss or the grass never grows in. 

That step takes a lot of work.  I don't like work.  I don't like work even more than I don't like moss.

[Mapsyscon]

Mark Nelsen is saying we may yet get a late season "backdoor blast" in March.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/12/ecmwf-monthly-run-a-bit-cooler/

[ShawniganLake]

Mark Nelsen is saying we may yet get a late season "backdoor blast" in March.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/12/ecmwf-monthly-run-a-bit-cooler/

Seems like February is almost off the table at this point but something has to give at some point. Wouldn't surprise me if it happened in the first week if March.

[richard mann]

Models really went for a dive in the toilet today. I blame SW's overconfidence last night - usually a big time jinx.

 

 ... If more btw. I'm looking at the idea, as been relatable to this thinking and comment of yours here above Jared.

 

I just tried to start a "Poll", but couldn't (?.. checking with Fred.), the main "question" of which had been, ... Is the current pattern showing, fairly illustrative of what we've been seeing more generally this winter. ?

 

— "current and showing", as in where looking at what's been in place and working, today.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html   (30 image loop. Animated.)

[Deweydog]

00z is running!

[Sometimesdylan]

00z is running!

havent seen that much enthusiasm for the models running in quite a while 

[Front Ranger]

 

 ... If more btw. I'm looking at the idea, as been relatable to this thinking and comment of yours here above Jared.

 

I just tried to start a "Poll", but couldn't (?.. checking with Fred.), the main "question" of which had been, ... Is the current pattern showing, fairly illustrative of what we've been seeing more generally this winter. ?

 

— "current and showing", as in where looking at what's been in place and working, today.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html   (30 image loop. Animated.)

 

Hate to say it, but yeah it seems to still want to revert back to the dominant pattern this winter. Ridging for the West.

[Front Ranger]

00z is running!

 

SPOILER: Looks cold for Boston!

[Dan the Weatherman]

SPOILER: Looks cold for Boston!

Surprise, surprise!

[GHweatherChris]

SPOILER: Looks cold for Boston!

Weird.

[richard mann]

Hate to say it, but yeah it seems to still want to revert back to the dominant pattern this winter. Ridging for the West.

 

Nah. "indicative" of the same old same old. But definitely "evolving".

 

— By what degrees, where, .. and into what, being the main question/s more. 

 

More basically, I'm looking at things ("cold".) "inching" West. .. with time. 

 

.. This with and if again, if with the best we can do where looking at this year more "alone", being even and more only a "Later and Wetter" Spring. With also maybe, some type of more hoped for "surprise". Even if ultimately only more inconsequential. 

 

.. And, "The poll's up". Check it. ... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/816-poll-pattern-description/

 

— To view the actual "poll" you need to click own the main thread title, not the most recent post to it.

[HighlandExperience]

00z is running!

 

Looks cold in Alabama. 

[Jesse]

Torch torch torch torch torch.

 

62/39 today. Pretty typical for mid-April.

[HighlandExperience]

Torch torch torch torch torch.

 

62/39 today. Pretty typical for mid-April.

 

If we are going to do this. Lets just go all out torch. 

[TT-SEA]

Not even sure I am going to get enough rain to wash in my fertilizer tomorrow night.

 

And then its basically dry for at least 10 days.   

 

Do I have to get the sprinklers out already???  

[Tyler Mode]

63.5 here today in Battle Ground after a low of 36.5

 

It's my first day without measurable rain this month.

[stuffradio]

Not even sure I am going to get enough rain to wash in my fertilizer tomorrow night.

 

And then its basically dry for at least 10 days.   

 

Do I have to get the sprinklers out already???  

<_ complaining about drought while i drowning in just feet of rain.>

[TT-SEA]

Models really went for a dive in the toilet today. I blame SW's overconfidence last night - usually a big time jinx.

 

 

This is almost always true for some reason.   

 

Every time he starts babbling about ensembles showing a ridge at 150W it all goes to crap.     

[TT-SEA]

<_ complaining about drought while i drowning in just feet of rain.>

 

 

No... its been very wet here this month.   Amazingly the mountains have nothing to show for our suffering in the lowlands.

 

I was just saying that if its going to be dry for the next 2 weeks then I might have to water in the fertilizer myself.     No drought here.  

[stuffradio]

No... its been very wet here this month.   Amazingly the mountains have nothing to show for our suffering in the lowlands.

 

I was just saying that if its going to be dry for the next 2 weeks then I might have to water in the fertilizer myself.     No drought here.  

Last month I was 1-2 inches away from getting a foot of rain. I desperately want a long stretch of Sun.

[bainbridgekid]

What's happening in Boston is just incredible.

 

They already have over 30 inches on the ground and have a Blizzard Watch for Saturday evening through Sunday night. 8-14 inches of snow and gusts up to 60 mph with lows below zero.

Hard to imagine what that will do to a major city.