March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

12z Euro backing off on the big warmth next week. Doesn't push nearly as far north towards the Canadian border. I have a feeling this will be the trend this Spring and something to pay attn to especially in the Midwest/Lakes region. The Plains will do very well when the warmth hits. There is such a deep snow cover in Southern/South East Canada. From Int'l Falls and points east there is a massive glacier in place. That won't melt anytime soon.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030305_National.jpg

Southeast Canada snow isn't going anywhere sure but points upstream is southern western Canada surely will lose slot of snow. Minnesota will be relatively snow free by the end of next week most likely

[gosaints]

EPs agreeing with the euro with most of the US covered by positive departures next week

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015030312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

 

Nothing about that look screams cool/cold

[Maxim]

Yeah, I'm not sure what all this talk about cool/cold is about.

[BigDizBliz420]

looks warm! i'm excited for spring

 

there's a time for snow and it's over!

[Maxim]

snow pack will be vanished by next Wednesday.

[Madtown]

45 and sun!!! Bring on the mojitos and pools.

[Maxim]

lol if the GFS were to verify then we'd be seeing widespread temps in the 70s throughout the ohio valley by the 16th or so.

[Iowawx]

I think it's pretty safe to say that winter is now over. I don't think my area is going to see anymore snow until at least December. Total for the winter was 31 inches. Not too bad, but I wish we had more storms than we did. Maybe the 2015-2016 winter can deliver for all of us. 

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015030312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

 

Nothing about that look screams cool/cold

I doubt you see a ridge hit and hold.  This ridge in the 7-12 day range will be progressive.  The trough that develops in the west will swing east and you will see some fun and games in the central CONUS.  Just where the storms track will either mean snow/cold and rain/mild.  After day 14, the block over the top develops and its back to a late winter pattern.

[gosaints]

I doubt you see a ridge hit and hold. This ridge in the 7-12 day range will be progressive. The trough that develops in the west will swing east and you will see some fun and games in the central CONUS. Just where the storms track will either mean snow/cold and rain/mild. After day 14, the block over the top develops and its back to a late winter pattern.

Its transition season. I don't take anything past day 10-14 seriously.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think it's pretty safe to say that winter is now over. I don't think my area is going to see anymore snow until at least December. Total for the winter was 31 inches. Not too bad, but I wish we had more storms than we did. Maybe the 2015-2016 winter can deliver for all of us. 

 

Hardly safe, though I don't think you'll see winter's return for more than a few days at a time this March.  I think from here on out we'll see the usual twists and turns of early Spring.

[gosaints]

Tom what site do you use to get the CFS v2 data.  I just starting using the NOAA site to glance at it.  Just from glancing at it the last couple days the models jumps all over the place it seems.  Latest run is quite warm week 3 and seasonal week 4

[Geos]

Up to 40.5" of snow for the season now. Made it to 33°, which only was good enough to melt the snow on main roads. Side roads remain icy tonight. 

 

I think the areas will get some 40s in the next week, but I think the 50s are going to occur after the 15th this March. At least this far northeast. Once you get near the edge of the snow pack, the warming will be able to invade in more easily. Areas further east may not see spring until next month! haha

[Tom]

Tom what site do you use to get the CFS v2 data.  I just starting using the NOAA site to glance at it.  Just from glancing at it the last couple days the models jumps all over the place it seems.  Latest run is quite warm week 3 and seasonal week 4

I use Wx Bell's CFSv2 data that comes in 4x per day both monthly/weekly runs.

[gosaints]

I use Wx Bell's CFSv2 data that comes in 4x per day both monthly/weekly runs.

cool weather cod is also adding the CFSv2 4x per day.

[Maxim]

Up to 40.5" of snow for the season now. Made it to 33°, which only was good enough to melt the snow on main roads. Side roads remain icy tonight. 

 

I think the areas will get some 40s in the next week, but I think the 50s are going to occur after the 15th this March. At least this far northeast. Once you get near the edge of the snow pack, the warming will be able to invade in more easily. Areas further east may not see spring until next month! haha

I bet we see 50s on Tuesday the 10th

[Geos]

I bet we see 50s on Tuesday the 10th

 

I think there's too much snow to melt for that. We would need to get into a strong southerly flow of a powerful system to get to the 50s imo. 

[Maxim]

I think there's too much snow to melt for that. We would need to get into a strong southerly flow of a powerful system to get to the 50s imo.

 

We shall see, but LOT was hinting at some 50 degree temps by mid week, and a good chunk of the snow should be gone by that time.

[Maxim]

already got 49° in point for Tuesday.

[BigDizBliz420]

snow pack will be vanished by next Wednesday.

 

 

it will be mostly gone outside piles by Monday afternoon at the latest

 

don't underestimate the strength of spring sun

[FarmerRick]

Anyone watching the system that comes up from the gulf after next weekend?  Looks to be a doozy.

[Maxim]

Anyone watching the system that comes up from the gulf after next weekend? Looks to be a doozy.

watch it disappear on later runs, this upcoming pattern is not supportive of any large storms developing.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think there's too much snow to melt for that. We would need to get into a strong southerly flow of a powerful system to get to the 50s imo. 

 

Lol, by then most of the snow will be gone as others are mentioned, much depends on how strong the wind is, if it's relatively calm the lake breeze will probably develop and prevent us from hitting the 50s.

[gosaints]

Biggest thing will be our cold air source to the north and west taking a real hit.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20150303.NAsfcT.gif

[Tony]

I have not been watching the models very much lately as it really has for the most part been pretty boring to say the least. I am sure ready for Spring to arrive but I highly doubt that it is going to happen. These patterns that have persisted all winter long are hard to get out of and we are going to have to baby step our way out of it. Sure we will have a couple days here and there thrown it but it won't last long. March can be a volatile month and I can see it starting to take shape towards the end of next week. A lot of sub tropical moisture to be thrown into the mix and with plenty of cold air around will make for some crazy storm systems for the central conus. 

 

Again, I am ready for spring as I don't want to be watching high school ball in the freezing cold like the past couple years but I just don't see it happening.....I hope I am very very wrong!!

[Maxim]

I have not been watching the models very much lately as it really has for the most part been pretty boring to say the least. I am sure ready for Spring to arrive but I highly doubt that it is going to happen. These patterns that have persisted all winter long are hard to get out of and we are going to have to baby step our way out of it. Sure we will have a couple days here and there thrown it but it won't last long. March can be a volatile month and I can see it starting to take shape towards the end of next week. A lot of sub tropical moisture to be thrown into the mix and with plenty of cold air around will make for some crazy storm systems for the central conus. 

 

Again, I am ready for spring as I don't want to be watching high school ball in the freezing cold like the past couple years but I just don't see it happening.....I hope I am very very wrong!!

lol

[FV-Mike]

Still think chicago gets as warm as nebraska? Lakes area gonna be stuck in crap

Lincoln's forecast for next Tuesday is 65 degree. ORD's is 50. Chicago won't be within 10 degrees of Lincoln next week

[gosaints]

FV-Mike.  Absolutely, no way chicago beats that area.  GGEM gets nebraska to the mid 70s middle of next week.  GFS now showing much more of what I expect this March.  Up and down like a yo-yo.  Nothing like last year.  Hopefully some interesting weather but who knows.  By the time we hit hour 180 the GGEM and the GFS are worlds apart.  GGEM basically a complete blow torch.  Love watching the models this time of the year.  Flip after flip

[Hawkeye]

Last few runs of the GFS have gone much colder late next week.  The 12z even brings a snow system through to replenish the snowpack that melts on Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Tom]

Either the GFS score's a coupe in the 6-10, or it will be an epic fail.  GGEM/EURO are complete opposite.  

[gosaints]

Either the GFS score's a coupe in the 6-10, or it will be an epic fail.  GGEM/EURO are complete opposite.  

Yep will be a fun battle to watch. 

[gosaints]

Last few runs of the GFS have gone much colder late next week.  The 12z even brings a snow system through to replenish the snowpack that melts on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Compare the GFS and the GGEM/EURO and you will shake your head

[Tom]

Yep will be a fun battle to watch. 

The only support I can find of this happening was a cold storm system that just hit Japan and now a trough is encompassing the region.  Using the East Asian Theory, that would be the only forecasting tool that would suggest the GFS wins the battle.

[gosaints]

The only support I can find of this happening was a cold storm system that just hit Japan and now a trough is encompassing the region.  Using the East Asian Theory, that would be the only forecasting tool that would suggest the GFS wins the battle.

I have no idea what to believe.  Not surprising really have seen this story happen spring after spring.  Model mayhem

[Maxim]

Funny because usually the GFS has a warm bias while the Euro has a cold bias.

[gosaints]

Funny because usually the GFS has a warm bias while the Euro has a cold bias.

In decent springs in the past the GFS has tended to be a cold outlier in the long range, but really is a different model now.  Have no idea how is will perform

[CentralNebWeather]

Surprise 2 inch snow last night.  Frontogenesis caused the quick accumulation between 11 PM and 2 AM.  Still covered today.  Good to know if can still snow.  However, local mets mentioning 70 degrees by the middle of next week.  

 

Hoping for one big late March Nebraska Blizzard or snowstorm before we hit spring.

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles are confused . some of each solution showing up

[Maxim]

What on earth is the GFS smoking?