February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

6-10 day range looks interesting since the euro had been hinting at this since the end of January , now its in the range where it can be believable with modified arctic air... The thing is where there be snow?

[TT-SEA]

Considering we haven't had a solid week of real wet weather all Winter long, I'd say we are WAYYYYYY overdue...

 

Not even looking that wet now.   I was expecting a semi-firehouse at one point.    

 

This coming weekend is the strongest of the systems on the 12Z GFS.   

[TT-SEA]

6-10 day range looks interesting since the euro had been hinting at this since the end of January , now its in the range where it can be believable with modified arctic air... The thing is where there be snow?

 

Cold maritime flow will favor some lowland locations that have not been favored much this winter.  

 

And most importantly the mountains!     

[Parksvillewx]

Hopefully it'll favour me for once.

[brody]

Special Weather Statement has been issued for tomorrow's system 

[IbrChris]

12z ECMWF ensembles at Portland show a mean snowfall of 5" in the 6-10 day timeframe (beginning around hour 156) with 47 out of 50 members showing at least 2" total. Five members (10%) show 10+ inches. Additionally the ECMWF monthly product indicates we could see modified arctic air and perhaps snow in early March. Perhaps a 1951 redux? One can dream.

[IbrChris]

6-10 day range looks interesting since the euro had been hinting at this since the end of January , now its in the range where it can be believable with modified arctic air... The thing is where there be snow?

While ECMWF deterministic run shows little to no snow, most of the ensemble members show from 2 to 10" in the 6-10 day timeframe, a mean value of 5"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If PDX can not warm by midnight they will set another record min max.

[Guest Winterdog]

12z ECMWF ensembles at Portland show a mean snowfall of 5" in the 6-10 day timeframe (beginning around hour 156) with 47 out of 50 members showing at least 2" total. Five members (10%) show 10+ inches. Additionally the ECMWF monthly product indicates we could see modified arctic air and perhaps snow in early March. Perhaps a 1951 redux? One can dream.

Do you happen to have the values for Seattle?  It would be nice to get in on the fun for a change for those of us in the north sound.

[IbrChris]

Do you happen to have the values for Seattle?  It would be nice to get in on the fun for a change for those of us in the north sound.

SEA snowfall 12z ECMWF

Ensemble mean: 2.2"

Deterministic 0.4"

45 of 50 members show at least 0.5"

3 members show 6"+

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ECMWF ensembles at Portland show a mean snowfall of 5" in the 6-10 day timeframe (beginning around hour 156) with 47 out of 50 members showing at least 2" total. Five members (10%) show 10+ inches. Additionally the ECMWF monthly product indicates we could see modified arctic air and perhaps snow in early March. Perhaps a 1951 redux? One can dream.

 

Best news I have heard all day.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Special Weather Statement has been issued for tomorrow's system

 

It will be fun to track the low-pressure system that's coming in and see if it will intensify or not. In some ways I kind a hope it does and that we get a nice little windstorm here.

[Guest Winterdog]

SEA snowfall 12z ECMWF

Ensemble mean: 2.2"

Deterministic 0.4"

45 of 50 members show at least 0.5"

3 members show 6"+

Wow, Portland might own us again!  Thanks for info. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man I just had a flashback of the inauguration day storm. I remember there were county plow trucks plowing the limbs off the roads. I think I had like a 70mph gust here at work. That was a bad boy storm for sure.

[brody]

Looks like Atlanta is going to get slammed on Wednesday into Thursday even worse than the event they had last month.

 

Potentially the worst Ice Storm they have seen in 15-20 years?

 

Up to 1" of ice, D**n 

[Bryant]

SEA snowfall 12z ECMWF

Ensemble mean: 2.2"

Deterministic 0.4"

45 of 50 members show at least 0.5"

3 members show 6"+

Hate to be that guy, but it's our turn up in the northern regions. I'm sure many will agree.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hate to be that guy, but it's our turn up in the northern regions. I'm sure many will agree.

 

As Dewey says. Persistence! 

 

Really ever seen January 2012 it has been all south. Even March 2012 was mainly an Oregon show if I recall.

[Guest Winterdog]

Hate to be that guy, but it's our turn up in the northern regions. I'm sure many will agree.

What guy?

 

edit: Okay I get it, you hate to be the guy that's a "homer". Sorry I had a brain spasm (with what's left of my brain).

 

This is my last post.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hate to be that guy, but it's our turn up in the northern regions. I'm sure many will agree.

December 1996 was worse up here than Oregon just had by a mile. Our turn will come again.

[Snowman Josh]

Loving the way things are looking starting next Sunday.  Dare to dream?

[Snowman5678]

Gusty winds out of the south this evening between 25-35 with my temp currently at 45.1. There is still some snow on the grass in pockets but not much...my snow pile has already melted a good amount, now its about 6ft wide and 3ft tall. We'll see how long it lasts with all the rain.

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/2rfegqx.jpg

[pscz1140]

Gusty winds out of the south this evening between 25-35 with my temp currently at 45.1. There is still some snow on the grass in pockets but not much...my snow pile has already melted a good amount, now its about 6ft wide and 3ft tall. We'll see how long it lasts with all the rain.

 

Nice pile! A lot of the snowmen/snowladies in Capitol Hill are already down to nubs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why are we all so fascinated with snow? Serious question.

[luminen]

Novelty.

 

Which begs the question...why aren't we fascinated by the sun?

[westiztehbest]

The Euro weeklies update (Ensemble mean) shows colder than normal 850 mb temps from basically the 20th through the end of the run (March 13th).  Not bad.

[pscz1140]

Novelty.

 

Which begs the question...why aren't we fascinated by the sun?

 

I lived in Colorado for more than a decade, including a season in Vail, but I still feel like a 5-year-old every time a snowflake falls from the sky. I love the way it covers up all man-made surfaces and returns things to a more pristine state, among the dozens of reasons I probably like it.

 

.....and after a decade in Seattle I am also fascinated with the sun now!

[Snowman5678]

Nice pile! A lot of the snowmen/snowladies in Capitol Hill are already down to nubs.

Thanks! One of my smaller ones. My new england nature makes me automatically feel the need to shovel the driveway when it snows...I like it and miss it.  

[Weather101]

Why are we all so fascinated with snow? Serious question.

Because we rarely get it around here so it's a treat. When you barely get to see something as cool as snow you want too see more and you take advantage of every opportunity you get. Snow is just nice to look at , throw snowballs , make stuff with it and so on. If you lived in a place where it was snowing everyday (most) people would get sick of it a bit and not get as hyped or excited for every snowfall like we do cause you can't apperivate it as much when you see it everyday . That's why we get so hyped and excited because it can only snow once a year out if 365 days or sometimes not even once !

[HighlandExperience]

Novelty.

 

Which begs the question...why aren't we fascinated by the sun?

 

Sun is boring. I would like the  last half of Feb. to bring 30 inches of snow and two weeks of off and on again snow. That will satisfy my needs till next year. 

[Skagit Weather]

Gusty winds out of the south this evening between 25-35 with my temp currently at 45.1. There is still some snow on the grass in pockets but not much...my snow pile has already melted a good amount, now its about 6ft wide and 3ft tall. We'll see how long it lasts with all the rain.

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/2rfegqx.jpg

Very nice. When we received our snow up here on December 20th I rolled it into about 10 balls, 3-4 feet in diameter, stacked them on top of each other and then partially covered them with a tarp. Since it was relatively cold and dry afterward, the snow actually lasted until January 1.

[TT-SEA]

I lived in Colorado for more than a decade, including a season in Vail, but I still feel like a 5-year-old every time a snowflake falls from the sky. I love the way it covers up all man-made surfaces and returns things to a more pristine state, among the dozens of reasons I probably like it.

 

.....and after a decade in Seattle I am also fascinated with the sun now!

 

 

Me too.    Big time.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks! One of my smaller ones. My new england nature makes me automatically feel the need to shovel the driveway when it snows...I like it and miss it.

 

 

I do the same thing.   Its just what you do in Minnesota.    You clear the driveway the day of the snowfall and plows come and clear the streets very quickly.    

 

Drives me crazy when we get a bunch of snow out here and during times when it melts more slowly people still leave their driveways clogged full of snow and keep driving over it and making a mess.   And then it rains on it.      

 

Shoveling and/or snowblowing makes the whole process much cleaner and it looks nicer.    

[Snowman5678]

Very nice. When we received our snow up here on December 20th I rolled it into about 10 balls, 3-4 feet in diameter, stacked them on top of each other and then partially covered them with a tarp. Since it was relatively cold and dry afterward, the snow actually lasted until January 1.

I was going to shovel the snow on the 20th but I was leaving for Austria the next day so i didn't have time. Had 4" with that so i probably would have been able to have a bigger pile!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I bet paradise at mt Rainer gets 8ft of snow by sunday evening.

[Skagit Weather]

Why are we all so fascinated with snow? Serious question.

Everything that has already been said, coupled with the fact that it completely changes the landscape. We talk about how outside looks more inviting on a sunny day compared to a cloudy day, but that is nothing to what snow does. It covers up everything we don't want to see by powdering it with glittering whiteness. It is like going to bed one night in one location and waking up somewhere completely different. Your brain slightly recognizes your surroundings, but they are so radically different that it is like a stimulant. In the landscape colors and sounds may be muted, but that also is a new experience and it is amazing when we realize that something as fragile as a frozen water crystal, liable to melt with the slightest increase in temperature, has remade what we view day after day as largely unchanging.

[Snowman5678]

I do the same thing.   Its just what you do in Minnesota.    You clear the driveway the day of the snowfall and plows come and clear the streets very quickly.    

 

Drives me crazy when we get a bunch of snow out here and during times when it melts more slowly people still leave their driveways clogged full of snow and keep driving over it and making a mess.   And then it rains on it.      

 

Shoveling and/or snowblowing makes the whole process much cleaner and it looks nicer.    

Yes I know!!! Drives me nuts...Back in 2012 or 2008 our driveway was always clear because I was always out there shoveling...meanwhile everyone elses driveways weren't shoveled at all and were messy and bumpy...i just wanted to start shoveling the driveways! Im glad someone understands why I do it, its habit. 

[TT-SEA]

Because we rarely get it around here so it's a treat. When you barely get to see something as cool as snow you want too see more and you take advantage of every opportunity you get. Snow is just nice to look at , throw snowballs , make stuff with it and so on. If you lived in a place where it was snowing everyday (most) people would get sick of it a bit and not get as hyped or excited for every snowfall like we do cause you can't apperivate it as much when you see it everyday . That's why we get so hyped and excited because it can only snow once a year out if 365 days or sometimes not even once !

 

 

The problem I have is that many times it turns to mush so quickly in the lowlands.    We drove up to Everett yesterday for a lunch and I was excited to drive through all the snowy areas since its rare to see snow there.

 

But I could not see anything.   It was foggy and drizzling and there was so much roadspray it was pointless.    Just turned to mush.    We stopped in Kirkland and the parking lot was ankle deep in slush and everything was sopping wet.     In the Midwest... you usually have lots of time to enjoy the scenery of snow.    And typically when its cold... the roads are completely dry.   Such is the advantage when its commonplace.      

 

Yesterday I was questioning why we would be so excited for this kind of snow.   I found nothing interesting or enjoyable about it... I wanted it gone because it was so messy.  

 

Now... there are times with snow going into arctic air here that are AMAZING.    Clear skies, cold weather, great scenery.     Heaven.    

 

That is why I cheer for snow going into cold... and don't really care about snow coming out.    I don't need to see snow just to see snow.    

[Snowman Josh]

The problem I have is that many times it turns to mush so quickly in the lowlands.    We drove up to Everett yesterday for a lunch and I was excited to drive through all the snowy areas since its rare to see snow there.

 

But I could not see anything.   It was foggy and drizzling and there was so much roadspray it was pointless.    Just turned to mush.    We stopped in Kirkland and the parking lot was ankle deep in slush and everything was sopping wet.     In the Midwest... you usually have lots of time to enjoy the scenery of snow.    And typically when its cold... the roads are completely dry.   So that is the advantage when its commonplace.      

 

Yesterday I was questioning why we would be so excited for this kind of snow.   I found nothing interesting or enjoyable about it... I wanted it gone because it was so messy.  

 

Now... there are times with snow going into arctic air here that are AMAZING.    Clear skies, cold weather, great scenery.     Heaven.    

 

That is why I cheer so loudly for snow going into cold... and cheer against snow coming out.    I don't need to see snow just to see snow.   

Tim, you are a strange one for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, you are a strange one for sure.

 

 

I am strange because I don't like all types of snow or because I took the time to explain that?    

 

Everyone is already in bed here.      Just watching the Olympics.   

[TT-SEA]

Here is a pattern we have been missing most of the winter:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_180_500_vort_ht.gif