February 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

Jim still seems optimistic so that makes me feel a little better.

lol! When does Jim not seem optimistic ?

[BLI snowman]

Three days, meteorologically speaking...

 

March 5 is the cutoff. Winter's just not the same afterwards.

[Deweydog]

March 5 is the cutoff. Winter's just not the same afterwards.

 

4-19-08 begs to differ!

[brody]

4-19-08 begs to differ!

No kidding, good date too 

[snow_wizard]

Again, it could be the lack of resolution on the GEFS, hence poor handling of the Cascades' influence.

 

The ECMWF doesn't take 850s below -4 in SEA before flow turns onshore and temps/dewpoints rise in the low levels.

As I said the ECMWF ensemble was the best of all on the 12z run. We'll see how it goes.

[snow_wizard]

lol! When does Jim not seem optimistic ?

Apparently you missed my meltdown earlier. If the GFS was the best model at this point I wouldn't have much hope. As it is the GFS and ECMWF ensemble both look pretty decent. They look much better at the 500mb level than the operational GFS as well as at the 850mb level.

[FroYoBro]

Jim still seems optimistic so that makes me feel a little better.

You and Jim should be banned from the site when things start trending bad. 

[Jesse]

You and Jim should be banned from the site when things start trending bad.

Settle down.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z nam is just a tad warmer at the end of the run. But has plenty of moisture when 850mb is at -6 or so. The trends today have been a bummer but I feel like it will get better at the last minute.

[HighlandExperience]

00z nam is just a tad warmer at the end of the run. But has plenty of moisture when 850mb is at -6 or so. The trends today have been a bummer but I feel like it will get better at the last minute.

 

Hopefully the nam is not overdoing precip to much. OF course it always does... 

[pscz1140]

00z nam is just a tad warmer at the end of the run. But has plenty of moisture when 850mb is at -6 or so. The trends today have been a bummer but I feel like it will get better at the last minute.

 

Verbatim it would be a lot of wet snow, no?

 

Huge potential with this one.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Hoping for something good to show up.  Kind of sucks that Puget Sound proper didn't get much activity for the second year in a row--but that's kind of the way it goes with the big bad Pacific just to our west.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z nam is just a tad warmer at the end of the run. But has plenty of moisture when 850mb is at -6 or so. The trends today have been a bummer but I feel like it will get better at the last minute.

You feel this way because?... that is what usually happens, or because that it is climo?... What are you basing this off of?

[pscz1140]

You feel this way because?... that is what usually happens, or because that it is climo?... What are you basing this off of?

 

[westiztehbest]

The NAM is looking good for snowfall (here anyway).  It's wetter than the GFS/ECMWF thus far.  I'm not too confident in those models ability to forecast qpf with much accuracy until 24 hours out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You feel this way because?... that is what usually happens, or because that it is climo?... What are you basing this off of?

I am basing this off of past events. Have seen it many times in the 24-36 hr period when things can change fast. It's not like the pattern has been taken away it just need tweaked a little. I do know that it is a very complex pattern and is almost certain to have a few surprises.

[Weather101]

What's call for Vancouver BC area? And wait till tmrw night for models to make a judgement just like last weekend for us it didn't really look good till Thursday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far not impressed with the 00z. About the same as the 18z.But Still shows some snow north of Tacoma this weekend.

[The Swamp]

So far not impressed with the 00z. About the same as the 18z.But Still shows some snow north of Tacoma this weekend.

If the snow keeps creeping north it will end up being just like last weekend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the snow keeps creeping north it will end up being just like last weekend.

If even there. If you to believe what the 00z is showing now this is looking pretty boring.

[snow_wizard]

I'm getting worried in spite of the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs being so insistent the operational GFS is too warm. Of course the GFS will be right this time because it shows an unfavorable outcome for us.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm getting worried in spite of the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs being so insistent the operational GFS is too warm. Of course the GFS will be right this time because it shows an unfavorable outcome for us.

 

If ECMWF holds its ground we have nothing to worry about.. 

[The Swamp]

If even there. If you to believe what the 00z is showing now this is looking pretty boring.

Those darn cascades keep the cold air from spilling in.

[snow_wizard]

You feel this way because?... that is what usually happens, or because that it is climo?... What are you basing this off of?

Normally I would agree with his statement based on the 12z ECMWF suite of models. The fact the NAM and GFS are both terrible on this run really concerns me. What looked like a possible epic March blast a few days ago looks like we may struggle to get below freezing now. Overall I'm pretty disgusted with how this winter worked out for the Puget Sound area. Pretty much every place in the northern half of the country had more snow than us this winter, including many locations in the Western lowlands of the NW. My frustration meter is at a perfect 10 right now.

 

I've only had one freezing low temperature since the Arctic blast early this month.

[snow_wizard]

Those darn cascades keep the cold air from spilling in.

It's not even really that now. The 500mb pattern never gets that great either. Too much energy remains north of the border. Kind of like a mild redux of Jan 2005.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm getting worried in spite of the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs being so insistent the operational GFS is too warm. Of course the GFS will be right this time because it shows an unfavorable outcome for us.

It is a real fragile situation. That low placement is the problem and those a very hard to determine where they will set up.

[bainbridgekid]

It is a real fragile situation. That low placement is the problem and those a very hard to determine where they will set up.

The problem is that lows like that are pretty prone to get hung up North longer than modeled. Same thing happened last weekend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's not even really that now. The 500mb pattern never gets that great either. Too much energy remains north of the border. Kind of like a mild redux of Jan 2005.

But we have seen this happen so many times. Tomorrow they could flip to the better. If the 12z tomorrow don't improve we might be doomed.

[BLI snowman]

But we have seen this happen so many times. Tomorrow they could flip to the better. If the 12z tomorrow don't improve we might be doomed.

 

Unfortunately 24 straight hours of mediocre operational runs bodes extremely poorly for this one. 00z GFS last night was fantastic, tonight's run isn't close.

[snow_wizard]

But we have seen this happen so many times. Tomorrow they could flip to the better. If the 12z tomorrow don't improve we might be doomed.

I'm still holding out a little bit of hope.

[TheBigOne]

Analyzing the ECMWF/GGEM, I think the problem is they keep the PV too far west, holding it up in western Canada, perturbing the meridional stress. The GFS meanwhile pushes it further SE, allowing the cold farther south.

 

If the PV remains in western Canada, the cold will struggle to make it past the Cascades. In January we can get away with that, but if I lived in SEA I'd want the GFS to verify.

I think the PV is honoring the increased border restrictions.  No passports? no go!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's amazing how we burn our eyeballs looking at these models for 4 months for the chance we get 24hrs of winter. Gets old.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the GEM is a little bit better at hour 72, but it's taking forever to update beyond that. All in all that model has apparently done the best with this. It never had any great runs like the GFS and ECMWF did.

 

On another note a huge MJO wave is finally emerging and will apparently be getting into octants 1 and 2 by the middle of March. That should finally put an end to the pattern that has dominated the past several weeks. I'm ready for a more traditional pattern to emerge. Just way too much disappointment to have enjoyed most of this winter.

[snow_wizard]

It's amazing how we burn our eyeballs looking at these models for 4 months for the chance we get 24hrs of winter. Gets old.

Yeah...I'm so ready to move. My energy is drained.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah...I'm so ready to move. My energy is drained.

I agree... I feel that trying, to keep trying, is too trying...  I am ready to move on and bring some spring and warm weather as we can all see where this is going. kinda sucks but we should be pretty used to it here now.  Well, we have a possible El Nino to look forward to. Gooo team!  <_>

[IbrChris]

For those interested I am a regular contributor on the Weatherbell Maps and Forecasts page on Facebook. I generally post once or twice a day, and focus on the Western US as well as the longer range as time permits and there's something interesting to discuss. I'd love to have feedback and commentary from any of you on here with interest. Posts are only part of the fun (I would prefer not to hear myself talk)...commentary and analysis by users/clients is 10x better than simply reading my own analysis.

https://www.facebook.com/wxmaps

My latest post: https://www.facebook.com/wxmaps/posts/727365933950120

[Phil]

Just for lolz, the GGEM buries Brennan in NYC with 18" of snow..he's like a snow magnet. Gets crushed in Bellingham, then the snow follows him to NYC.

[IbrChris]

12z ECM ensembles were decent...operational not so much, although Sunday would be well into the 30s for most of us west of the Cascades from PDX to YVR.

[Brennan]

Yeah...I'm so ready to move. My energy is drained.

Lynden may still do very well with this... 

[Brennan]

Just for lolz, the GGEM buries Brennan in NYC with 18" of snow..he's like a snow magnet. Gets crushed in Bellingham, then the snow follows him to NYC.

Ok I don’t know what it is, but the 23*F tonight in NY feels like about 10 in Bellingham. It’s beyond cold, and it’s windy too. I’m not sure I like the cold weather here. The snow piles on the sides of the road are disgusting too, reminds me of being in Anchorage in the middle of winter when it hasn’t snowed in a week. I’m staying on Staten Island right near the S.I. Ferry. The roads are filled with potholes from all the salt they’ve poured over here this winter. The new mayor has his hands full.