February 2014 in the PNW

[epiceast]

 

I just read this, this explains why the GFS showed such a new trend tonight.

 

http://www.intelligentutility.com/blog/14/01/weather-model-differences-between-gfs-american-and-ecmwf-european?quicktabs_4=1

 

 

There are some other key stuff. Tonights GFS will not verify. 

 

What about the GEM with it's epic Portland special? Seems like it's a compromise between the two models in a convoluted way.

[Snow]

What about the GEM with it's epic Portland special? Seems like it's a compromise between the two models in a convoluted way.

 

The GEM is way less accurate than both of them.

[Skagit Weather]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/beta/?lat=48.43156&lon=-121.49358&zoom=6&type=terrain&units=english&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-5600&viewportend=now-2000&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=111&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0

If you need more instructions:

On the right hand side go down to model data. Click on the gear looking thing and you can change what aspects you look at. Don't use the snowfall aspect because it really only shows greater than 1" in three hours as is not that accurate. You can also use "J" and "L" on your keyboard to toggle between 3 hour time periods.

[epiceast]

The GEM is way less accurate than both of them.

The first storm is within the skill range... So I don't think GFS is completely on crack, especially since Euro solution changed quite a bit too.

[Parksvillewx]

Can you post these maps for us PDXers?

 

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow114.jpg

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow168.jpg

 

 

 

And just for fun...

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow240.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

12z NAM in 6 hours 45 minutes
12z GFS in 8 hours 40 minutes
12z GEM in 8 hours 40 minutes
12z EURO in 11 hours 26 minutes(Begins in 10 hours 42 minutes
Hope for some good runs!

Good night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I called my brother tonight and talked about the recent model trend. We both kind of had the same thought. It sucks, but whatever. What is the difference between a high of 35 and a high of 30? So it won't be epic, and more like February 2011 temps, oh well. He admitted he tracked the December blast non-stop, but really hasn't paid much attention to this one. This winters borefest has lulled him to sleep.

[Snow]

The first storm is within the skill range... So I don't think GFS is completely on crack, especially since Euro solution changed quite a bit too.

 

The 00z ECMWF tonight was as cold if not slightly colder than the 12z ECMWF earlier today. How did the ECMWF change? 

[epiceast]

The 00z ECMWF tonight was as cold if not slightly colder than the 12z ECMWF earlier today. How did the ECMWF change? 

The storm timing moved up.

[Snow]

The storm timing moved up.

 

The ECMWF's don't show the Friday system. The overrunning system is faster in the ECMWF than any GFS run for this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 38-24 IMBY today. Not a bad start to the cold snap.

 

I did a comparison of this air mass to the one in Feb 2011 and they are very similar. The thickness may have gotten a tad lower on the 2011 event, but on this one the 850s go a bit lower. This is 3 weeks earlier which makes a huge difference on length of day and sun angle. In that event SEA had a high 31 and there was only an inch of snow on the ground that day. Not enough to make any real difference...especially at an airport. In short I have no idea how the MOS forecast of 36 for SEA on Wednesday has any chance of verifying. It will be interesting to see where it ends up.

[snow_wizard]

Tonight's model runs were pretty interesting...especially the GEM. That one shows a suppressed jet cutting under cold surface high pressure to the north. Huge potential for people just north of the low track. Given these things often trend north in the home stretch gives me some hope we could see a surprise nice event up here, but at this point Oregon looks more likely to do the best.

 

Another thing of note is the fact there a number of ensemble members at the end of week two that drop into the -6 to -8 range on 850s. Any cold snaps later in the month will probably drop down from Alaska which would give us much better snow chances going into the cold snap.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like 38-24 IMBY today. Not a bad start to the cold snap.

 

I did a comparison of this air mass to the one in Feb 2011 and they are very similar. The thickness may have gotten a tad lower on the 2011 event, but on this one the 850s go a bit lower. This is 3 weeks earlier which makes a huge difference on length of day and sun angle. In that event SEA had a high 31 and there was only an inch of snow on the ground that day. Not enough to make any real difference...especially at an airport. In short I have no idea how the MOS forecast of 36 for SEA on Wednesday has any chance of verifying. It will be interesting to see where it ends up.

 

That event dropped in more from the north though, so the Fraser River outflow and northerly flow aloft was better. Better for Seattle. This one has more of an east-west trajectory again, like the December event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That event dropped in more from the north though, so the Fraser River outflow and northerly flow aloft was better. Better for Seattle. This one has more of an east-west trajectory again, like the December event. 

 

October 2002

[snow_wizard]

I called my brother tonight and talked about the recent model trend. We both kind of had the same thought. It sucks, but whatever. What is the difference between a high of 35 and a high of 30? So it won't be epic, and more like February 2011 temps, oh well. He admitted he tracked the December blast non-stop, but really hasn't paid much attention to this one. This winters borefest has lulled him to sleep.

This is looking more anomalous up here compared to the December one. Arctic blasts are never a borefest.

[snow_wizard]

That event dropped in more from the north though, so the Fraser River outflow and northerly flow aloft was better. Better for Seattle. This one has more of an east-west trajectory again, like the December event.

Early on that was true. The day they had the high of 31 had more of an easterly gradient. I will admit there are so many variables to consider we really won't know for sure until Wednesday and Thursday get here.

[snow_wizard]

October 2002

October 2002 was nothing up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October 2002 was nothing up here.

 

Coldest October temp in recorded history in Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

Coldest October temp in recorded history in Oregon.

2003 and 2006 were much more impressive up here. It was very much a dry air event except for the very beginning and windy areas didn't fare very well for cold temps. This is a way different set up.

[snow_wizard]

The interesting thing about this winter is we are going to have at least two major Arctic blasts which is pretty significant. As I have said many times the fact we are seeing Arctic outbreaks much more frequently is eventually going to pay big dividends for us. The details have sucked this winter...oh well.

[bainbridgekid]

Early on that was true. The day they had the high of 31 had more of an easterly gradient. I will admit there are so many variables to consider we really won't know for sure until Wednesday and Thursday get here.

Really?

 

Looks like they had North winds pretty much all day

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/2011/2/25/DailyHistory.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 in Puyallup?!?!?!

[Weather101]

25 here

[Guest Monty67]

Tonight's model runs were pretty interesting...especially the GEM. That one shows a suppressed jet cutting under cold surface high pressure to the north. Huge potential for people just north of the low track. Given these things often trend north in the home stretch gives me some hope we could see a surprise nice event up here, but at this point Oregon looks more likely to do the best.

 

Another thing of note is the fact there a number of ensemble members at the end of week two that drop into the -6 to -8 range on 850s. Any cold snaps later in the month will probably drop down from Alaska which would give us much better snow chances going into the cold snap.

Sounds good. These back door, ENE things suck.

[Gradient Keeper]

Up to feed the Cat, so figured why not check the 6z NAM. For what it's worth its colder.

 

Looks like 512-513 thickness PDX and -15c 850mb. Another thing to keep in mind especially for those in PDX metro. 00z GFS may have seemed warmer with -12c, but The Dalles was -19c. When you factor in brutal, icy strong east winds it's not much of a warm up when you think about it, is it.

 

Let's see if 6z GFS follows suit.

 

Be back for 12z....

[Weather101]

Up to feed the Cat, so figured why not check the 6z NAM. For what it's worth its colder.

 

Looks like 512-513 thickness PDX and -15c 850mb. Another thing to keep in mind especially for those in PDX metro. 00z GFS may have seemed warmer with -12c, but The Dalles was -19c. When you factor in brutal, icy strong east winds it's not much of a warm up when you think about it, is it.

 

Let's see if 6z GFS follows suit.

 

Be back for 12z....

Thanks for all the updates !

[FroYoBro]

The 06z GFS is very similar to the 0z.   <_>

[epiceast]

The 06z GFS is very similar to the 0z.   <_>

get the popcorn ready for the 12z runs!

[Bryant]

Tonight's model runs were pretty interesting...especially the GEM. That one shows a suppressed jet cutting under cold surface high pressure to the north. Huge potential for people just north of the low track. Given these things often trend north in the home stretch gives me some hope we could see a surprise nice event up here, but at this point Oregon looks more likely to do the best.

 

Another thing of note is the fact there a number of ensemble members at the end of week two that drop into the -6 to -8 range on 850s. Any cold snaps later in the month will probably drop down from Alaska which would give us much better snow chances going into the cold snap.

 

Upcoming MJO forecast could potentially be a bit tricky due to the cooler SST that have now taken over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions. Although forecasts that I look at show the MJO reaching the Maritime Continent in the next 2-3 weeks (which lines up with a return to cold weather in the west), the lack of convection caused by the cool SST could cause the MJO to move quicker than normal, suggesting a more progressive type pattern. This is all skepticism at this point, but MJO phase 4 plots for Feb does show a potential cold pattern which may return for the 2nd half of Feb.

 

http://scotlandwx.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/February-Phase-4-All-Amp.gif

[Weather101]

22F here. Wow colder tonight then I expected. Don't think we have too worry about the cold air guys.

[brody]

Really strange motion on the radar this morning over W.Wa

[westcoastexpat]

This weekend on "The Models" (a hit new reality TV show where models claw each other's eyes out to compete to avoid getting "dumped" by "Dr. Snow," the PNW's long sought-after bachelor):

 

GFS continues to show some brutal ice storm potential for PDX. Risk of widespread power outages is there. Not quite as devastating as the Toronto storm 6 weeks ago (~1" of ice) but even 0.25-0.5" of ice would be enough to take power lines out and weaker limbs. Luckily, both the GGEM and GFS show endless rain in the LR so the effects of the ice storm would be short lived. The GEM actually dumps 3" of snow in PDX before the rain train comes.

 

GFS provides SEA with 2-3" of snow followed by heavy rains, whereas the GGEM drops 2" of a wintery mix before the eventual transition.

 

My hometown (USA-CAN border) still looks great for some action. GFS dumps 5" of snow before the transition with the system early next week, whereas the GEM seems a bit unrealistically bullish with a 10" dump before the rain commences.

 

I think everyone will see snow this weekend/early next week. Everyone. I would be surprised to see many areas in the western lowlands south of Everett seeing >4" of snow at this stage, but ample tapping into moisture can always change things. I do worry about a more southerly track for the systems pegged for SEA/PDX this weekend. The sampling with these systems is far from over so the models will probably have a much better handle within the next couple of days.

 

I do worry about the early next week system hooking more north on the GGEM, resulting in a quicker transition. However, a tick south could get SEA in on the goods. 

 

Given there are multiple systems that could potentially be affecting different sections within this sub-forum, I'd say hope should be higher than ever. Hope for an 8"+ event right now is probably a bit unrealistic, at least in the 10-day range, but I'm liking the prospects later in the month. SE ridge should become a bigger feature as the month continues.

[MossMan]

Just got up and let the dogs out and saw a very light dusting of snow on my truck and it is still falling very lightly. Was not expecting that!

[Skagit Weather]

Just got up and let the dogs out and saw a very light dusting of snow on my truck and it is still falling very lightly. Was not expecting that!

Yes I do believe that it is very lightly snowing here with a temperature of 29F. I woke up and wondered why it was so warm, but now I realize it is just because of the clouds. I have to give props to the Euro which forecast this up here. It would be nice if I could get more than the few flakes that are scattering the ground currently, just to give me something to look at through the cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flurries and 28 this morning with very dense low clouds/fog at my location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Early look ahead to March on the CFS says near normal temps and precip.

 

I saw the EURO weeklies return the west coast ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Flurries and 28 this morning with very dense low clouds/fog at my location.

 

 

Wow... dense fog in this set up?

 

Clouds here now and some snow on the radar... but its very far from fog.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow... dense fog in this set up?

 

Clouds here now and some snow on the radar... but its very far from fog.  

 

Probably 1/8' visibility.

[Shadow]

A surprise three inches up here.

[Jesse]

06Z was a little colder, and the ensembles look better. Closer to the operational EURO.

 

850s are between -11 and -12c out here right now according to the latest SPC hourly mesoscale analysis map. That's a little ahead of schedule.

 

The weird thing is, the latest GFS runs still get The Dalles down close to -20c at 850mb, but barely get Portland below -10.