Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 OOZ GFS Thursday at 10pm, lots of snow for the Valley, just move this up a little bit. http://oi60.tinypic.com/13z4r3n.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 WRF is way south on Thursday as well: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.45.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 This may all change at the last minute, but lets all take a moment to bow to the wisdom of the GEM for going with the southern solution days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 This may all change at the last minute, but lets all take a moment to bow to the wisdom of the GEM for going with the southern solution days ago.GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 -7 at Sherman pass. Not to shabby. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I love this GFS run. The gradients stay favorable for offshore winds much longer, but at the same the gradients are weaker than previous runs so the East Puget Sound lowlands won't have to contend with too much easterly flow which would kill the moisture. This could be good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle. The GEM aint no gem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. Of course yesterday neither mesoscale model showed anything on Thursday. Trend is in the operational's camp, for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Of course yesterday neither mesoscale model showed anything on Thursday. Trend is in the operational's camp, for now.I was thinking the same thing. They also didn't show the showers we had today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. The mesoscale models are not designed to deal with this kind of stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle. Going to be a nail biter. Somebody between Eugene and Everett is probably going to get the goods. No matter what the cold looks to last a day longer than previously thought. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00 GFS shows a nice all day snow event on Saturday up this way, thats good to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 New KGW Forecast: http://belo.bimedia.net/KGW/weather/stills/7day.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 New KGW Forecast: http://belo.bimedia.net/KGW/weather/stills/7day.jpg Looks pretty reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks pretty reasonable. Yeah looks like a good solid 3 day event, maybe even longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think this sums it up well for the Puget Sound... NWS .... LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ONSATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE APERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TRANSITION. THELOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD/DRY WHILE MOISTURE INCREASESALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS PRECIPSTARTING AS SNOW /SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING/...THEN CHANGING OVER TOALL RAIN SAT NIGHT AS WARMER MARINE AIR SURGES INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELSARE NOT ALIGNED. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW MORE CYCLES UNTIL THEYLATCH ONTO A SOLID SOLUTION. THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING OFTHE SNOW/RAIN TRANSITION AND THE TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL AS ASERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE PAC NW. 33 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 You don't say?! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 You don't say?! I was trying to post up Steve Pools extended forecast. It turned into a mess. I'm not techno savvy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 If it does snow starting Thursday afternoon/night, I bet some of the public will be mad that they warned so late when it showed sunshine through Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today. I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 If it does snow starting Thursday afternoon/night, I bet some of the public will be mad that they warned so late when it showed sunshine through Friday. There will definitely be riots in the streets because everyone remembers when weather forecasts had shown sunshine instead of flurries 3 days prior. I hope businesses remember to board up their windows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone have any idea of why the MM5 NAM an WRF GFS are so different from the operational runs? Kind of unusual to see such a huge difference. They are so much further south with the Thursday system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS output shows 0.17 precip for PDX with the Thursday afternoon system. Salem 0.22 and Eugene 0.64. PDX: 1" to 2.5" SLE: 1.5" to 3" EUG: 5" to 8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today. I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later.Clouds look to be hanging on pretty tough up here. The temp hasn't really dropped off much in the last two hours. I had a high of 36 after a low of 23. Wow, 33-20! I remember when I used to out cold you with regularity but not this year. You are going to out snow me too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 currently 26 here, has started dropping off over the last hr or so. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today. I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later.Wow you stayed cold!! I was 36/26 here. Must be the swamp winds. D**n you PuyallupJohn!!! Currently 28.8 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 WRF is a big pile of s**t for snow up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I smell bust coming with the EURO Just a gut feeling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 WRF is a big pile of s**t for snow up here.Maybe Steve Pool will be right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Was cold here today too. 35 high. Currently 23. Crystal clear here right now. Amazing how much clearer the moon and stars look with this airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm worried about the Euro sucking tonight. Guess we will find out shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend.I don't believe that will be accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend. <_ honestly i would not be surprised. no biggie really. all got the cold right folks src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_rolleyes.gif" alt=":rolleyes:"> Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 mm5 is off rails at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Either the mm5 is out to lunch or the operational gfs is. What the gfs shows would be a fair amount of snow for most places.Strange. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 mm5 is off rails at this pointI agree. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Either the mm5 is out to lunch or the operational gfs is. What the gfs shows would be a fair amount of snow for most places.Strange. MM5 is out to lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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