February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013112/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png

 

 

A TAD north but 4 mb stronger 

[Money]

Need the high to move farther north or be weaker so this can go more NNE. Much stronger/more developed system this run though. C IL into IND get 10+ it looks like

[Tom]

12z Euro on the right track...

 

 

[DominicR]

12z Euro on the right track...

 

How much you take off for Sat system?

[Tom]

Here is the 24 hour snowfall total at 10:1...

 

 

[Money]

Models usually overdue the strength of high pressures, correct? That's really what is stopping this thing from even going more north. 

[gabel23]

12z Euro on the right track...

Need about another 100 miles to the NW.....

[Tom]

Money, yes, models tend to overdue strength of High Pressures.  Tonight's runs will be exciting to see if the NW trend continues along with amplification.  Seems like all models showing a stronger system after 12z suite of runs.

[Jaycee]

Need about another 100 miles to the NW.....

Dude... I swear if we don't get in on this!! Haha, I don't like the track of the EURO at all, nor the GGEM. It takes more of the Kansas City to Chicago rather than the Omaha through Des Moines. 

[gabel23]

Dude... I swear if we don't get in on this!! Haha, I don't like the track of the EURO at all, nor the GGEM. It takes more of the Kansas City to Chicago rather than the Omaha through Des Mo

 

Going to be close, good thing we are 120 hrs out. Hate to be in the sweet spot that far out. If this thing strengthens it has to go NW......

[Hawkeye]

Need the high to move farther north or be weaker so this can go more NNE. Much stronger/more developed system this run though. C IL into IND get 10+ it looks like

 

Yep.  The precip shield looks good south and southwest of Iowa early on, but then it makes little northward progress.  Given how far southeast the surface low is, the upper low will really need to cut nw.

[Sciascia]

LOT changed my grid from snow likely Tuesday & night, to snow likely Tuesday & just flat out snow Tuesday night.

[Money]

NAM has the look of a huge storm based on precip breaking out at hr 84 (I know it's the nam but still) lol

[DominicR]

MKE:

 

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW FROM ARKANSAS
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENS IT AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z GFS IS A LITTLE RATHER NORTH AND IS
PREFERRED GIVEN THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE.

36 HOUR GFS QPF VALUES TO 0.45 FROM LONE ROCK TO SHEBOYGAN TO 0.70
TOWARD KENOSHA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS JUST MUCH LESS THAN THAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS NOW A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...AND IF THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD
THE GFS WINTER STORM WATCHES WOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

 

[Money]

GFS weaker and a tad SE of 12z. Still 6-10 inches for most in this subforum 

[Hawkeye]

NAM has the look of a huge storm based on precip breaking out at hr 84 (I know it's the nam but still) lol

 

The NAM, in particular, is showing exceptional digging in the western US.

[DominicR]

GFS weaker and a tad SE of 12z. Still 6-10 inches for most in this subforum 

 

Yeah and ratios look good for a good chunk so some might get more than that but wow how widespread this is.

[Sciascia]

Yeah and ratios look good for a good chunk so some might get more than that but wow how widespread this is.

LOT has now included snow wording for Wednesday. Was previously "slight chance."

 

EDIT: Lot changed again. Now a chance.

[DominicR]

It's a little weaker but not by a lot. Track looks identical though.

[MarcusBeier]

Since this current storm is going to be saturated snow and possibly mixed with cr*p i really need a light, fluffy foot of beauty from this puppy to make things right in SEMI =)

[Tom]

Bill Bellis just said that this system is going to be a Blockbuster for our area...never heard him say that about a system this far out.

[winterfreak]

Hopefully a Kansas City to Chicago blockbuster with emphasis on the Kansas City part lol.

[james1976]

what a horrible GFS run.

[DominicR]

what a horrible GFS run.

 

  Relax tom I am sure another day.

[winterfreak]

Wow GFS is weak sauce for Tuesday storm. The NAM should be coming into range soon.

[DominicR]

This is still general 6-8 inches and maybe more as song areas will have real good ratios.

[Tom]

+1 Dom, plus its still showing decent phasing and a very wide defo band.

[winterfreak]

Looks like 3-5 for me. Way lower than last run. I feel like a foreigner on this sub forum being that I'm in Kansas City and should be posting in the plains section.

[Geos]

Storm moves pretty fast through here. Only looks like an evening-overnight storm.

[tim the weatherman]

accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard.

[The Snowman]

accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard.

Easy there- the term blizzard is a significant word. Sounds more like a breezy snowstorm.

[james1976]

accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard.

love this guy.

[DominicR]

Can I get a snowfall map or just this event alone for 00z GGEM?

[Tom]

00z GGEM...deduct .30qpf from today's system...

 

[DominicR]

D**n EURO coming in drier and weaker.

[Tom]

It starts off real healthy looking, then fizzles....The Storm will be off the California shore by 12z Sunday and that's when the models will be getting better data.  If by 12z Monday we are still getting the same track/intensity then that's probably what it will be.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro Snowfall...

 

 

[DominicR]

00z Euro Snowfall...

 

How much we take off for tom storm?

[Tom]

Take off 3.3" at ORD from this storm...5.5" Joliet...so you do the math, add 4-6" at 10:1 (ratios should be 15:1) 6-10" this run. 

 

Edit: Not including favorable LehS since 850's will be start at -10C and drop to -14C.

[tim the weatherman]

weather.com said that from se neb to ne ks to mich could get any where from a foot to 2 feet of snow