Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013112/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png A TAD north but 4 mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Need the high to move farther north or be weaker so this can go more NNE. Much stronger/more developed system this run though. C IL into IND get 10+ it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro on the right track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro on the right track... How much you take off for Sat system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is the 24 hour snowfall total at 10:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Models usually overdue the strength of high pressures, correct? That's really what is stopping this thing from even going more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro on the right track...Need about another 100 miles to the NW..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Money, yes, models tend to overdue strength of High Pressures. Tonight's runs will be exciting to see if the NW trend continues along with amplification. Seems like all models showing a stronger system after 12z suite of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Need about another 100 miles to the NW.....Dude... I swear if we don't get in on this!! Haha, I don't like the track of the EURO at all, nor the GGEM. It takes more of the Kansas City to Chicago rather than the Omaha through Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Dude... I swear if we don't get in on this!! Haha, I don't like the track of the EURO at all, nor the GGEM. It takes more of the Kansas City to Chicago rather than the Omaha through Des Mo Going to be close, good thing we are 120 hrs out. Hate to be in the sweet spot that far out. If this thing strengthens it has to go NW...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Need the high to move farther north or be weaker so this can go more NNE. Much stronger/more developed system this run though. C IL into IND get 10+ it looks like Yep. The precip shield looks good south and southwest of Iowa early on, but then it makes little northward progress. Given how far southeast the surface low is, the upper low will really need to cut nw. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT changed my grid from snow likely Tuesday & night, to snow likely Tuesday & just flat out snow Tuesday night. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM has the look of a huge storm based on precip breaking out at hr 84 (I know it's the nam but still) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 MKE: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW FROM ARKANSASTUESDAY...STRENGTHENS IT AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THEOHIO RIVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN GREATLAKES WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z GFS IS A LITTLE RATHER NORTH AND ISPREFERRED GIVEN THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE.36 HOUR GFS QPF VALUES TO 0.45 FROM LONE ROCK TO SHEBOYGAN TO 0.70TOWARD KENOSHA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS JUST MUCH LESS THAN THAT. THE 12ZECMWF IS NOW A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...AND IF THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARDTHE GFS WINTER STORM WATCHES WOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS weaker and a tad SE of 12z. Still 6-10 inches for most in this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM has the look of a huge storm based on precip breaking out at hr 84 (I know it's the nam but still) lol The NAM, in particular, is showing exceptional digging in the western US. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS weaker and a tad SE of 12z. Still 6-10 inches for most in this subforum Yeah and ratios look good for a good chunk so some might get more than that but wow how widespread this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah and ratios look good for a good chunk so some might get more than that but wow how widespread this is.LOT has now included snow wording for Wednesday. Was previously "slight chance." EDIT: Lot changed again. Now a chance. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's a little weaker but not by a lot. Track looks identical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Since this current storm is going to be saturated snow and possibly mixed with cr*p i really need a light, fluffy foot of beauty from this puppy to make things right in SEMI =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bill Bellis just said that this system is going to be a Blockbuster for our area...never heard him say that about a system this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hopefully a Kansas City to Chicago blockbuster with emphasis on the Kansas City part lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 what a horrible GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 what a horrible GFS run. Relax tom I am sure another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow GFS is weak sauce for Tuesday storm. The NAM should be coming into range soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is still general 6-8 inches and maybe more as song areas will have real good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 +1 Dom, plus its still showing decent phasing and a very wide defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like 3-5 for me. Way lower than last run. I feel like a foreigner on this sub forum being that I'm in Kansas City and should be posting in the plains section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Storm moves pretty fast through here. Only looks like an evening-overnight storm. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard.Easy there- the term blizzard is a significant word. Sounds more like a breezy snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 accuweather just said that this major winterstorm is winddriven so that means that we are looking at a major blizzard.love this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can I get a snowfall map or just this event alone for 00z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GGEM...deduct .30qpf from today's system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 D**n EURO coming in drier and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It starts off real healthy looking, then fizzles....The Storm will be off the California shore by 12z Sunday and that's when the models will be getting better data. If by 12z Monday we are still getting the same track/intensity then that's probably what it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z Euro Snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z Euro Snowfall... How much we take off for tom storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Take off 3.3" at ORD from this storm...5.5" Joliet...so you do the math, add 4-6" at 10:1 (ratios should be 15:1) 6-10" this run. Edit: Not including favorable LehS since 850's will be start at -10C and drop to -14C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 weather.com said that from se neb to ne ks to mich could get any where from a foot to 2 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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